Patriots-Bills: Analysis and Comment

Let's get this out of the way so I can talk about some irrelevent stuff: The Patriots have nothing much resembling a professional football defensive secondary, and they're in dire straits heading into Monday Night's matchup against Indianapolis, who -- not by coincidence -- have two weeks to prepare for the game.

"Not a conspiracy!" say those who have it in for New England. Just so happens that New England plays four or five of the toughest teams in the league and has a bunch of injuries while Indy has seven creampuffs and then a bye the week before they play the Patriots.

I'll say this: If New England wins, it's either a sign of the Apocalypse or Bill Belichick is literally a god.

OK, let's get back to last night's miracle.

It's a good thing Buffalo is terrible, except for Willis McGaHee. He had 136 yards on 31 carries, and probably could have had a whole lot more. The openings in New England's defense look like a humongus T -- right up the middle, and everywhere deep. Even with Tedy Bruschi back on the field, the Patriots couldn't stop anything coming up the gut, and couldn't get any forward pressure on Kelly Holcomb.

That's not helping a tremendously depleted and already overmatched defensive secondary. Yes, they're going to have to learn to fend for themselves, but some help up front would be greatly appreciated. Hopefully, this Richard Seymour thing won turn into a repeat of last year's Ty Law thing. It's great that Belichick doesn't tip his hand to other teams, but the fans are dying to know what's going on with "our" players. Be nice if we could disseminate that info to just the proper parties.

Bruschi's Impact

I think there is an obvious difference between when Bruschi is on the field and when he isn't. Ya, I know I said that it didn't change Buffalo's ability from running up the middle, but Bruschi's impact is far more subtle. Despite what John Dennis says, the defense is far more organized and disciplined when Bruschi is on the field. When he's on the field and it isn't organized and disciplined, things get fixed.

As I pointed out in my post-game, maybe he had only 2 solo tackles and 5 assists on the stat sheet, but maybe Buffalo altered their game plans to work around the Big-Play man, or maybe they allocated additional resources (sorry, I went corporate there a second) to neutralize Bruschi, and that allowed other players to finally make a couple big plays. And maybe's Bruschi's direction put those players in the right places to make them.

Ultimately, I don't have the information to state this as fact, but I do have enough circumstantial evidence to support a pretty solid case.

The Running Men

These injuries are really getting out of hand. There's no other explanation other than "The football gods deem it so." The football gods like mini dynasties. They don't like anything lasting more than 5 years, and they never let anyone win three cosecutive Super Bowls. But, really, Patrick Pass was running alone in open field and his hamstring tightened up like a banjo string. Patriot players don't even need contact anymore.

Well, now we're back to Corey Dillon, who was listed as questionable, but looked pretty darn good. Not a bad option, but football heaven help us if anything else goes wrong with him. We might have Dan Klecko carrying the ball. Actually, it's probably more likely that it would be one of the receivers or one of the return men, like Ellis Hobbs; but, like Belichick told the Big Show on Monday, rather than saying who might be next on the list, "Let's just hope it doesn't come to that."

Mularkey Is Full of Baloney

Mike Mularkey really blew it. I'm surprised the Buffalo News said nothing about it. Neither did the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, and they actually gave Bills coaching a "B" grade. Mularkey challenged two Patriot pass completions where it was evident to me, a guy probably 200 yards from the play, that the calls would stand. And then, on the reception that led to New England's winning score, he didn't have a challenge left to even try to overturn a questionable, crucial call.

I don't understand some coaches sometimes. They challenge the most inconsequential plays and then have no leg to stand on when the game is on the line. (That's to say nothing of two-point conversions.) When this game comes down to it, with all the other angles you can talk about, Bill Belichick simply outcoached Mularkey ... again.

Harbinger of Unnatural Acts

The minute I saw referee Ron Winter on the big screen preparing for the coin flip, I knew it would be a poorly officiated game. His crew is not the best, and he looks like the kind of guy those lame beer commericials mock. When you're mocked by a lame beer commercial, you're in trouble.

There were some questionable calls early. There were some questionable calls late. There were some obvious calls completely missed.

This I don't understand. People who know the game can really follow it easily at the stadium. You can see so much more than a TV closeup will ever show you. So despite us standing about 200 yards from most plays, I could see some very obvious penalties to which the officials were obviously blind. Sometimes stuff right at the point of action, too. I don't get it.

Then came that defensive delay of game penalty on the Patriots ... something about "unnatural acts" that had all of us in the stands scratching our heads. Turns out it's something of a neutral zone infraction, but Winter just bungled the whole thing. I guess that was a legitimate call, but when they miss so many other plain-sight penalties, you wonder how they catch something like that.

A Couple of Actual Game Notes

1 - In case you didn't know, it's very unusual for a team to be blasted that badly in time of possession and win. A nearly 2-to-1 ratio is hard enough to believe, and in such cases, you expect the team on the short end to have been trounced. As poorly as the defense played, they certainly did a few things right. Unfortunately, we were so involved in the game, it was hard to keep track of who was making a lot of the key plays.

2 - Linebacker Mike Vrabel was one guy we knew made a few great plays. As a matter of fact, he led the team again in tackles (9 solo, 5 assists, 1 sack and a pass defensed), his third time.

3 - Brady looked pretty sharp with only a couple bad throws, but receivers continue to drop some pretty clean passes. He's also going to need to grow some eyes in the back of his head. The backside pressure was relentless, and the Pats didn't seem to have an answer for it. That's what caused Brady's fumble, incidentally.

4 - Despite a solid group of tight ends with good hands, this group seems to be tethered to the offensive line to help blocking. I think it's the difference between those lightning quick drives that you can't depend on, and those long, grinding, wear-down-the-defense drives the Patriots are capable of when Ben Watson, Christian Fauria and Daniel Graham are catching passes that have been the staple of three championships.

5 - It was good to see New England pound in those two 1-yard touchdowns, especially with the O line getting dominated so often this season. Let's hope that's a turning point.

6 - The rematch is set for 1 p.m. on Dec. 11 in Orchard Park, NY. New England has won 9 of the last 10 meetings, except that 31-0 debacle to open the 2003 season (which, of course, we all remember was avenged in the last game that season, in another game that ended 31-0).

The Gillette Stadium Experience

The traffic on Route 1 wasn't as bad as when we went to see the Chargers on a Sunday afternoon a few weeks ago. We got to the stadium in less than 20 minutes (after hitting Rte. 1) and were strolling the ramps only a few minutes later. There were no lines at the gates, but we went through more than an hour before game time.

We were standing in what I think is the southwest corner of the stadium, to the left of the end zone the Pats defended in the first quarter. We were behind section 204. (Check out the
satellite photo on Google Maps. It shows a stripped Foxboro Stadium and a half-built Gillette. Pretty neat.) We generally had a great view of the field and the scoreboards (when no one in front of us was standing), and we were shielded from the brisk wind.

Unfortunately, it was the one section in the stadium where the people in the last row of the section just in front of the standing-room area felt it necessary to stand, despite the fact that no one in front of them were standing. Just goes to show that you'll meet jerks and idiots no matter where you are. A group of young men standing beside us asked the guys with seats if they'd sit down, and they guys with seats told them (basically) "we want to stand, and we can". I don't understand it. Eventually, they did sit, but it was well into the first half, and people were in bad moods.

The same group of young men beside us complained to one of the stadium employees whose job it is to keep the standing-room people behind a red line painted on the deck about 2-3 feet behind a railing about 2 feet behind the last row of seats. He, of course, said there was nothing he could do. It sounded like, "You paid $60 per person to stand here? Tough luck." As much as the Krafts have done for the Patriots and their fans, this is a little insulting.

We were pretty far from the vending areas, which is probably just as well. Last thing I need is a greasy sausage or bucket of wings. And since we parked at the stadium and didn't walk a couple miles, I wasn't dehydrated enough to splurge several bucks for a beverage.

At least there were speakers in the area. There are lots of standing room areas that you can't hear the stadium announcer. Overall, it was a decent place if you have standing room tickets, but we'll be checking out a few more areas later in the season.

I really wish I could get an explanation of the red line, because it's not just in places behind seating areas.

Post-Game, Week 8: Patriots 21 @ Buffalo 16

New England Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi returned to the field, and the Patriots survived an inane imbalance in first-half time of possession and scored three touchdowns in the second half to defeat the Buffalo Bills, 21-16, and claim a one-game lead in the AFC East.

Bruschi, less than 9 months removed from a stroke following the Patriots most recent Super Bowl victory, returned to the playing field and played a lot. The man called the "heart and soul of the Patriots defense" recorded 2 solo tackles and 5 assists on 64 of 77 defensive plays. But by far, his contributions were felt much deeper than a few numbers on the stat sheet.

"With Bruschi out there we played with a different intensity and it was good,"” safety Eugene Wilson said. "“As soon as he came back to practice, you could see the difference in the players."

Indeed, a lackluster Patriots defense that has broken past bending the last several weeks still struggled mightily but gave up only 3 points despite Buffalo controlling the clock for 22 of 30 minutes in the first half. Bruschi's presence may have forced Buffalo to recognize his threat, concentrate on him, freeing up other players to do what they have been unable to up to now.

Maybe a recognition of Bruschi's presence contributed to what many have called the play of the game: The Patriots down 16-14 with 6:20 left in the game, linebacker Rosevelt Colvin came on a blind-side blitz to strip-sack Buffalo quarterback Kelly Holcomb. Colvin recovered the fumble himself, and that led to the Patriots' winning score.

"“We'’re in the huddle saying somebody do something,"” Bruschi said. Â"“We needed someone to make a play, and he was the guy tonight."”

A lot of guys made plays when they absolutely needed to. But for the most part, it was a frightful affair somewhat reminiscent of last year's Halloween debacle at Pittsburgh: a game of mis-tackles and huge tracts of yardage.

''We didn't play as well defensively as we wanted to," said linebacker Willie McGinest. ''There are some things we can do better. We're going to work it out. If we don't get better, there are going to be some problems."

In addition to Colvin's play, Asante Samuel piHolcomb Holcombe with 6:31 left in the third quarter. It was only the second interception this season for the Patriots and just the first by a defensive back.

Buffalo controlled the majority of the clock in all four quarters, but the first half was virtually unprecedented. The Bills owned the ball for a full 12 minutes in the first quarter and 10:08 more in the second. Even in the second half, Buffalo held a 17:13 to 12:47 clock edge. That's just under a 40- to 20-minute advantage.

Despite the lopsidedness, Buffalo scored just 3 points on a Ryan Lindell chip-shot field goal with 8:41 left to play in the second quarter. Lindell missed a 46-yarder on the Bills previous series, and New England's Adam Vinatieri missed a 44-yarder at the end of the half.

Things changed rapidly in the third quarter. The Patriots took the second-half kickoff and streaked down the field in 2:28, the drive culminating on a 33-yard in-stride pass from Tom Brady to Deion Branch. The lead was short-lived as the Bills struck back in 83 seconds on a 55-yard Holcomb to Eric Moulds hookup.

A couple of early fourth-quarter field goals put Buffalo up 16-7 before New England, backs comfortably against the wall, scored on their next two possessions, both Corey Dillon 1-yard touchdowns with Dan Klecko filling in a fullback. The first score followed a 3:01 drive sparked by a first-play 37 yard loft to Branch that was unsuccessfully challenged by Buffalo. Following Colvin's heroics, the Patriots scored on two plays: a 22-yard bullet from Brady to Branch, and Dillon's dive.

Branch had three receptions (for 92 yards), all of them scores or key plays leading to scores.

Dillon gained 72 yards on 18 carries (4.0 avg) in relief of Patrick Pass who pulled up lame and fumbled on a left-side second-down sweep on the second play of the second quarter. The injury was reported to be a hamstring, and Pass did not return. There is no information on his status.

Brady finished with 199 yards on 14 of 21 passing. In addition to his three completions to Branch, he hit David Givens 7 times for 58 yards and just four other receivers just once each.

Holcomb had 263 yards on 20 of 33 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Moulds had 125 of those yards on 9 receptions, including his touchdown. Willis McGahee had 136 yards on 31 carries (4.4 avg) as the middle of the Patriots defense remained very soft.

New England defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who said he would play in Sunday night's game, did not practice Thursday or Friday and was listed inactive. It was the third consecutive game Seymour missed.

Next week: Buffalo has its bye week. The Bills (3-5) host Kansas City (4-3) the following Sunday at 1 p.m. New England (4-3) hosts Indianapolis (8-0) next Monday Night at 9 p.m.

Quotes in this story were taken from the Boston Herald and The Boston Globe.

Patriots vs. Bills open thread

Keep focused on this week. Win this one and gain control of the division. The Bills certainly are beatable. You're going to have to make all the noise this week yourselves. I'm heading down to Gillette in a few minutes.

Wherever you are, root, root, root for the home team, and have a Bruschi!

GO PATS!

Game Preview: Week 8, Patriots vs. Buffalo

The story of the week, to no one's surprise, is Tedy Bruschi (sorry, John Dennis).

At some point tonight, Bruschi will make his return to the field as the New England Patriots play their first division game of the season against the visiting Buffalo Bills. No matter when he actually takes the field, his impact will be felt well before the game starts and will come to a head during team introductions. While the Pats still are introduced as a team, you know that Gillette Stadium will be filled with a low-humming Bruuuuuuuu, and the scoreboard video operator will coincidentally have a live shot of No. 54 for all to see. There will be a red, white and deep blue sea of No. 54 jerseys in the stands.

What happens from there is anyone's guess, whether Bruschi starts, plays significant time, makes significant plays, has significant impact directing and settling (up to now) a chaotic defense. With more than two-thirds of the Patriots top defensive backs out for the season, or at least the game, Bruschi's presence could be the difference.

Buffalo has certainly had trouble of late. After a couple solid performances by Kelly Holcombe, Buffalo got crushed by a questionable Oakland squad, one that before the season should have been chalked up as an automatic. So there is some question -- as there always seems to be in Buffalo -- who is going to start at quarterback.

Adding insult to injury, Buffalo had a chance to take sole possession of the AFC East against the Raiders. They didn't. They actually fell to second, behind the Patriots, who now have their own opportunity to stake a solid claim to the division lead. But this game is certainly important. Buffalo, so far, is 2-0 in the division.

So, what do the Patriots need to do to win? They need to play like the New England Patriots: Solid defense, few penalties, create turnovers, strong in the red zone, protect the ball, control the ball, battle for field position. They haven't done all those things consistently well this season. They haven't done a lot of the former at all this season. But Bruschi has been one of those guys in the past that made a tremendous difference in those categories. While it's very unlikely that he's in 1995-2004 condition, even a slight impact can make a big difference.

All areas of the defense are still suspect. Up front, an ailing Richard Seymour may return after sitting out against Denver and taking advantage of the bye to heal up. However, Jarvis Green may sit out, which should still be an overall improvement, but you'd really like to have the extra bodies, especially against a team that's likely to test the run defense.

The list of defensive backs available for the game is shorter than the list of the injured. Buffalo has only four plays of 20 yards or more this season. Expect Holcombe/J.P. Losman to look for Eric Moulds deep to at least draw a few penalties if not simply burn a cornerback or two.

Red-zone defense will be under the microscope. Buffalo has allowed 14 touchdowns on 21 opponents' red-zone trips. That 66.7 percent failure rate might look bad, especially since it's 31st in the league. Unfortunately, New England is 32nd at 78.9 percent.

And so, the Patriots are going to have to put a fair -- no, a good -- number of points on the board. Corey Dillon could have another great game against the 31st rushing defense in the league. If he plays. He's still nursing an ankle. Amos Zereoue also has a bruised thigh, but Patrick Pass appears to be healthy, and he's shown he can do some serious damage to a stat sheet.

The good news is that New England doesn't have any wide receivers or tight ends on the injury report, and outside of Matt Light, no offensive linemen. Brady, who actually leads the league in passing (sorry, Ron Borges), remains listed with a shoulder injury, but we know by now that it isn't affecting his game. This healthy passing offense is going to need to carry its nearly crippled defensive counterpart for at least another game.

The Bills are ranked third against the pass, actually allowing fewer yards passing (153.6 ypg) than rushing (159.0 ypg). That may be misleading. With teams running roughshod, they've had little incentive to pass. Buffalo's pass defense is certainly good. They have 9 interceptions, led by Troy Vincent with 3.

Overall, Buffalo is plus-8 in turnover ratio. The Pats are -6. Not good. Mike Vrabel still leads New England with 1 pick. One!

Buffalo has done pretty well on special teams. Terrence McGee is averaging more than 34 yards per kickoff return, and New England has struggled defending returns. Bethel Johnson and Ellis Hobbs have nearly identical 24-plus yards per kickoff return. Neither team has returned a kick or punt for a touchdown this season.

Ryan Lindell is 15 of 16 on field goal attempts, but if it comes down to strictly kicking, well, I'll just say: Adam Vinatieri.

The Pats have won their last two games following the bye, beating the Bills in Buffalo during Week 4 last year amidst New England's record winning streak. The last loss following the bye was home against Denver in 2002. The Pats are 7-9 in their history following the bye, and 3-2 under Bill Belichick. Belichick teams are 10-6 following a bye.

Oh, by the way, New England lost their last game, 28-20, to Denver. They haven't lost back-to-back games in a really long time.

Prediction: Patriots, 34-17.

More good news for you viewers watching at home: You don't have to suffer Phil Simms flag waving for virtually any Patriot opponent. The bad news is you're stuck with play-by-play man Mike Patrick and "analysts" Joe Theismann and buffoon Paul Maguire. The game will also be broadcast on Channel 5. Suzy Kolber will provide meaningless reports and ask inane questions on the sideline. ... As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.

Week 8 Picks

Sunday, Oct. 30
Arizona (2-4) at Dallas (4-3), 1 p.m.
Dallas is in last place in the NFC East with the other three teams at 4-2. That's what last-minute turnovers converted to points do to you. Fortunately for Dallas, Arizona has the league's 2nd-worst rushing attack and not much of a defense. Drew Bledsoe has only a 20 percent chance of being sacked.
Prediction: Cowboys, 28-10.

Chicago (3-3) at Detroit (3-3), 1 p.m.
This is for the division lead. Last week, Chicago beat Baltimore 10-6, and Detroit beat Cleveland 13-10. Both of these teams are good at home and bad on the road. Their offenses are ranked 27th and 28th; defenses, 3rd and 9th. Wicked intriguing, eh? Your coin is as good as mine.
Prediction: Lions, 15-12.

Cleveland (2-4) at Houston (0-6), 1 p.m.
This could be a trap game for Cleveland. [long pause] Sorry, I was laughing too hard to type there. Houston played well for at least a quarter against Indy last week. Cleveland didn't play well against Detroit. Keep that coin handy.
Prediction: Texans, 6-3.

Green Bay (1-5) at Cincinnati (5-2), 1 p.m.
This is brutal.
Prediction: Bengals, 26-10.

Jacksonville (4-2) at St. Louis (3-4), 1 p.m.
St. Louis is at home, and that's most of the hope they have in this one.
Prediction: Jaguars, 23-20.

Minnesota (2-4) at Carolina (4-2), 1 p.m.
This one may not be as clear cut as it looks. Surprisingly, Carolina's defense is ranked only 19th, while Minnesota's is 25th. Meanwhile, the offenses are nearly even at 23rd and 22nd. Wait a minute. They're playing at Carolina. Yes it is.
Prediction: Panthers, 24-16.

Oakland (2-4) at Tennessee (2-5), 1 p.m.
If there's a game that has "tie" written all over it, it's this one. Steve McNair is back after a week off, resting his back during a 20-10 loss to Arizona. Oakland had several significant injuries in the defensive secondary. Kerry Collins has a growing history of success against Tennessee. Should be as interesting as a game of two .300 teams can be.
Prediction: Titans, 21-20.

Washington (4-2) at N.Y. Giants (4-2),1 p.m.
Hey, a legitimate game. As usual, there's no telling what to expect. Washington dropped two in a row before obliterating SanFran last week. New York has gotten lucky and had league and game officials hand them a couple wins. New York is ranked 31st in defense ... and they're 4-2. Washington is 4th in defense. Same 4-2. Washington is also 2nd in offense, while New York is 15th. Somehow, New York leads the league with 28.8 points per game. How can this be? Oh, it be. Thanks, Mr. Tagliabue. Plaxico Burress is still questionable with a bruised shoulder. I don't see how New York wins this game.
Prediction: Giants, 27-24.

Kansas City (4-2) at San Diego (3-4), 4:05 p.m.
Really tough one to call. Either team could blow out the other, or it could be a close high-scoring game. (Watch it be a close low-scoring game.) You can't hold a good man down, so don't expect Tomlinson to have a repeat of last week. Then again, it's entirely possible that Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes do repeat what they did last week. Unlike the games in which the winning team is the one that outscores the other, this one will be won by the team that can stop the other at least a couple times.
Prediction: Chargers, 35-27.

Miami (2-4) at New Orleans (2-5) (in Baton Rouge, LA), 4:05 p.m.
New Orleans is playing in Louisiana. That's going to be one of those big emotional edges they've used in their couple other wins this season. And the kind of edge they looked to have the couple games they got screwed in.
Prediction: Saints, 26-17.

Philadelphia (4-2) at Denver (5-2), 4:15 p.m.
Home field advantage. Philly did a great job stopping one great back last week. Don't think they can stop two really good ones. Which quarterback will be able to pick apart the other's defense? Neither passing defense is particularly stellar. Denver has the No. 2 rushing offense, Philly is No. 1 in passing. Eventually, you have to run to win.
Prediction: Broncos 31-24.

Tampa Bay (5-1) at San Francisco (1-5), 4:15 p.m.
Talk amongst yourselves and then move on.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 30-10.

Buffalo (3-4) at New England (3-3), 8:30 p.m.
Please see the separate game preview.
Prediction: Patriots, 34-17.

Monday, Oct. 31
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 9 p.m.
I'll get to this one tomorrow.
Prediction: Steelers, 24-3.

Week 7 Review

This has been a strange season. After just one week of a significant number of wins, I fell back into mediocrity last week, going 6-8. And this isn't even against the spread! There were about five games settled in the last couple minutes last week, and only one went my way.

Here's a quick look at my picks and the outcomes:

Friday, October 21
Kansas City @ Miami, 7 p.m.

Ricky Williams finds some holes in the K.C. defense, but the Chiefs have too much firepower. Home field isn't particularly relevant, especially with the late change of schedule. Nick Saban needs to pull a rabbit from a hat for Miami to even their record. Gus Frerotte just isn't the answer. Chiefs' special teams come through to keep pace with Denver.
Prediction:Chiefs, 33-20
Result: Chiefs, 30-20
Williams was completely stymied, losing 1 yard on 6 carries; but the Chiefs certainly had too much firepower with Larry Johnson picking up 93 on the ground and Priest Holmes adidng 90, that to go with Trent Green's 289 in the air. K.C.'s special teams came through too, but while I expected it to be Dante Hall returning a touchdown, it was Lawrence Tynes' 3 field goals and 3 extra points. And, no, home field didn't matter. Dolphin Stadium was empty. Sad.


Sunday, Oct. 23
Detroit (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), 1 p.m.
Tough one. Both teams' QBs are struggling. Detroit coach Steve Mariucci tried to light a fire under starter Joey Harrington by having Cleveland castoff Jeff Garcia take half the snaps in practice. Neither offense is doing anything (Detriot ranked 30th, Cleveland 26th), and the defenses aren't much better. Detroit's starting RB Kevin Jones is nursing a shoulder and fullback Corey Schlesinger has a hurt leg. I'll give the edge to the team with -- at the very least -- a health running back in Reuben Droughns.
Prediction: Browns, 17-14.
Result: Lions, 13-10.
Droughns came through, posting 100 yards. Trent Dilfer, however, threw 3picks and was sacked 4 times, passing for a net 56 yards. Cleveland netted a total 174, which was 5 fewer than their return yards. You don't win a lot of games with numbers like that. Last year's Browns quarterback, Jeff Garcia, was wearing a Detroit jersey, and he ran for a touchdown against his former team.

Green Bay (1-4) at Minnesota (1-4), 1 p.m.
Remember that scene in Titanic when the ship is tipping up in the water and it cracks in half? That's about where the Vikings are.
Prediction: Packers, 24-13.
Result: Vikings, 23-20.
How Minnesota came back from a 17-0 deficit, I'll never know. I guess Green Bay really, really sucks. Really. I don't know how much futher against the ropes you can have a team. It looked like Balboa vs. Creed I. Mike Tice literally saved his job. You gotta believe the axe was poised over his neck, just waiting for the final gun. Zygi Wilf, a.k.a. Piggly Wiggly (or is it Chilly Willy?), must be disappointed. The game? Man, I've already written more about it than I did before, isn't that more than enough?

Indianapolis (6-0) at Houston (0-5), 1 p.m.
Are the people in the NFL front office serious when they make up these schedules? (Yeah, I know they're made up years in advance. Then again, that figures.)
Prediction: Colts, 38-7.
Result: Colts, 38-20. Hey, I'm doing pretty good on the scores, if I'm not necessarily picking the correct teams. Houston put up a good fight in the second quarter before getting decimated. Not much to say about this one, except that it wasn't all Peyton Manning. Edgerrin James had 2 touchdowns and the Colts returned a fumble for another. I'll bet everything Indy doesn't win this week. (Yes, they're on a bye.)

New Orleans (2-4) at St. Louis (2-4), 1 p.m.
St. Louis is against the ropes. QB Marc Bulger is out, WR Isaac Bruce is questionable, and WR Tory Holt is nursing a knee as well. They don't have a running game. New Orleans has a slew of players listed as questionable. Old friend Antowain Smith is filling in for the injured Deuce McAllister. New Orleans has proven pretty tough for all they've been through.
Prediction: Saints, 24-10.
Result: Rams, 28-17.
Screw job. That's just about all I'm going to say about this game. The NFL should be ashamed. And that's twice in two weeks for New Orleans. Like they haven't had enough bad luck this season.

Pittsburgh (3-2) at Cincinnati (5-1), 1 p.m.
Cincinnati? 5-1? Oh, the next easiest schedule (after Indianapolis). That explains it. Fortunately, they're catching Pittsburgh at the right time, and they're playing at home, which should help. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger (hyperextended knee) is expected to play after watching from the sideline last week. He's still undefeated by any team but New England. Counterpart Carson Palmer has been shredding mediocre defenses and should be at least somewhat tested (Pittsburgh passing defense ranked 17th). If Cincinnati wins, they'll have a significan't grip on the AFC North division, but their second half's not so easy. Too many injuries on Pittsburgh's defense, particularly in the secondary.
Prediction: Bengals, 21-20.
Result: Steelers, 27-13.
Pittsburgh's D held up pretty well, and Cincinnati showed that they just might be frauds with that weak early schedule. Roethlisberger threw for 2 TDs and the Steelers racked up 221 yards rushing. Chad Johnson is another Terrell Owens / Randy Moss loudmouth who will never win anything.

San Diego (3-3) at Philadelphia (3-2), 1 p.m.
Both teams need a win to keep pace in their respective divisions. Philadelphia is 6-0 with Andy Reid coming off their bye. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson had the game of his life last week. Philly can't run and can't stop the run, but they lead the league in passing and San Diego has had trouble defending. It's almost that simple. Philly needs to stop LaDainian. San Diego needs to stop Donovan. Philadelphia's kicker David Akers is still out; backup Todd France is 4 of 5 on field goals.
Prediction: Chargers, 24-21.
Result: Eagles, 20-17.
Couldn't have picked this one much closer either. One play changes the game. Hard enough to pick the general outcome, never mind the score. Can you imagine trying to predict the key plays? Well, this was a pretty good game from opening whistle to final gun. Philly had Tomlinson completely stymied (7 yards on 17 carries). San Diego had a couple picks off McNabb, but he got the job done early. Both teams did what I said they needed to do. Then came the fateful field goal attempt.

San Francisco (1-4) at Washington (3-2), 1 p.m.
Earlier in the season, I really wouldn't have cared about this game. Come to think of it, I don't now either. Joe Gibbs could be atop the NFC East by Sunday night. Weird stuff.
Prediction: Redskins, 31-6.
Result: Redskins, 52-17. I was a little off on the score, but at least I got the right team (and the margin of victory was relative). Gibbs is technically on top, but tied with Philly and the Giants. Two plays go the other way, and he'd be all alone (with 53 players and their coaches). The game? C'mon, it's just not worth it, and you know it.

Dallas (4-2) at Seattle (4-2), 4:05 p.m.
Dallas RB Julius Jones is questionable with a bad ankle. No running game for Drew Bledsoe equals 4-3 for Dallas. Dallas rookie WR Patrick Clayton is also out, replaced by Peerless Price. Dallas has the No. 7 defense in the league, though. They'll need it, because Seattle has the top-ranked offense (didn't see that coming, did you?). Seattle RB Shawn Alexander is coming of a 141-yard performance, but Dallas is tough against the run. Bledsoe gets sacked.
Prediction: Seahawks, 26-17.
Result: Seahawks, 13-10. Bledsoe was sacked 5 times and had 2 interceptions. His defense did the job, allowing only 72 yards on the ground. Doesn't look like Price is going to have a year like he did with Bledsoe in Buffalo. Once again, he needs someone to throw him the ball. I'm guessing Bledsoe is close to being an all-time leader in single-handedly losing games in clutch situations. He's the absolute worst clutch QB in NFL history, and some people still think he's a HoFer.

Baltimore (2-3) at Chicago (2-3), 4:15 p.m.
Here's one of those instances when win-loss records mean nothing. Baltimore is in last in the AFC North. Chicago is first in the NFC North. Baltimore might end up close to .500. Chicago might not win another game. Safety Ed Reed is out, and LB Ray Lewis is probable. To win, Baltimore will have to score. Games like this are pretty good to watch, but not fun at all to write about. Or predict.
Prediction: Ravens, 13-10.
Result: Bears, 10-6.
It's wicked sick how I'm picking these scores. It's putrid sick how I'm picking these losers. "Jailbird Jamal" Lewis had a big 34 yards rushing. I wonder what he was taking when he led the league a couple years back? This was funny. The two quarterbacks barely combined for 300 yards passing (Anthony Wright, 164; Kyle Orton, 145). Must have been a real defensive struggle.

Buffalo (3-3) at Oakland (1-4), 4:15 p.m.
Randy Moss is questionable. That means things on many levels, but really it's because he bruised his ribs last week against San Diego. Buffalo could be all alone in first in the AFC East with a win. Oakland's only chance is to get the benefit of every judgment call in the game at their home field. All the stats add up to Buffalo claiming first place.
Prediction: Bills, 23-10.
Result: Raiders, 38-17.
I thought Bledsoe left Buffalo. Oh, he did? I guess your defense can't save you every weekend. Oakland's LaMont Jordan accumulated 162 total yards (122 rushing, 40 receiving), and Kerry Collins didn't throw an interception. Buffalo didn't play horribly, but they couldn't mount a consistent offensive attack. Randy Moss did nothing, and the Raiders won. Think about it.

Denver (5-1) at N.Y. Giants (3-2), 4:15 p.m.
Two fairly evenly matched teams, but Denver's defense -- or New York's lack thereof, will be the difference. Denver QB Jake Plummer has been playing well, and New York is 31st against the pass. Plummer's success is partially due to Denver's No. 3 rushing offense. New York WR Plaxico Buress is questionable with back spasms.
Prediction: Broncos, 27-24.
Result: Giants, 24-23.
I was coiling the noose after this one. Everything was going along to plan until -- the prevent defense reared its ugly head. I don't even want to think about it. I'm getting queasy.

Tennessee (2-4) at Arizona (1-4), 4:15 p.m.
Someone has to win this game.
Prediction: Cardinals, 10-9.
Result: Cardinals, 20-10.
Someone did.

Monday, Oct. 24
N.Y. Jets (2-4) at Atlanta (4-2), 9 p.m.
Significant injuries keep piling up for New York, but RB Curtis Martin broke out for 148 yards last week. Meanwhile, Atlanta gave up a zillion yards to New Orleans before stealing a game last week, and Michael Vick is almost back to "normal." Atlanta shouldn't need the officials' help this week.
Prediction: Falcons, 28-13.
Result: Falcons, 27-14.
Not many surprises here. Vick was horrible, but Testaverde may have been even worse. Atlanta converted turnovers into points, while the Jets didn't. Simple as that.

Bye week: Carolina, Jacksonville, New England, Tampa Bay
Hey, at least none of these teams handed me a loss last week.

Last week: 6-8. Yuck. Man, maybe I should pick scores and leave picking the actual winners to someone else.
Season: 57-45. Once again, I'm not -- repeat, not -- picking against the spread. Wouldn't that be something?

Week 7 Picks, Part II

"Don't be hasty!" admonished Treebeard the hobbits.

That's been a big problem this season for me. Pressed for time, I've made picks off the cuff. Friday night caught me by surprise again. Not that I didn't know it was coming, but the 7 o'clock start really caught me off-guard. I appear to have escaped unscathed, even predicting the final score to within 3 points. That's a good continuation from last week, a breakout week after a solid month of mediocrity. Let's see if we can keep the ball rolling.

The Pats are on a bye, so it's not like a real week of games anyway.

Sunday, Oct. 23
Detroit (2-3) at Cleveland (2-3), 1 p.m.
Tough one. Both teams' QBs are struggling. Detroit coach Steve Mariucci tried to light a fire under starter Joey Harrington by having Cleveland castoff Jeff Garcia take half the snaps in practice. Neither offense is doing anything (Detriot ranked 30th, Cleveland 26th), and the defenses aren't much better. Detroit's starting RB Kevin Jones is nursing a shoulder and fullback Corey Schlesinger has a hurt leg. I'll give the edge to the team with -- at the very least -- a health running back in Reuben Droughns.
Prediction: Browns, 17-14.

Green Bay (1-4) at Minnesota (1-4), 1 p.m.
Remember that scene in Titanic when the ship is tipping up in the water and it cracks in half? That's about where the Vikings are.
Prediction: Packers, 24-13.

Indianapolis (6-0) at Houston (0-5), 1 p.m.
Are the people in the NFL front office serious when they make up these schedules? (Yeah, I know they're made up years in advance. Then again, that figures.)
Prediction: Colts, 38-7.

New Orleans (2-4) at St. Louis (2-4), 1 p.m.
St. Louis is against the ropes. QB Marc Bulger is out, WR Isaac Bruce is questionable, and WR Tory Holt is nursing a knee as well. They don't have a running game. New Orleans has a slew of players listed as questionable. Old friend Antowain Smith is filling in for the injured Deuce McAllister. New Orleans has proven pretty tough for all they've been through.
Prediction: Saints, 24-10.

Pittsburgh (3-2) at Cincinnati (5-1), 1 p.m.
Cincinnati? 5-1? Oh, the next easiest schedule (after Indianapolis). That explains it. Fortunately, they're catching Pittsburgh at the right time, and they're playing at home, which should help. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger (hyperextended knee) is expected to play after watching from the sideline last week. He's still undefeated by any team but New England. Counterpart Carson Palmer has been shredding mediocre defenses and should be at least somewhat tested (Pittsburgh passing defense ranked 17th). If Cincinnati wins, they'll have a significan't grip on the AFC North division, but their second half's not so easy. Too many injuries on Pittsburgh's defense, particularly in the secondary.
Prediction: Bengals, 21-20.

San Diego (3-3) at Philadelphia (3-2), 1 p.m.
Both teams need a win to keep pace in their respective divisions. Philadelphia is 6-0 with Andy Reid coming off their bye. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson had the game of his life last week. Philly can't run and can't stop the run, but they lead the league in passing and San Diego has had trouble defending. It's almost that simple. Philly needs to stop LaDainian. San Diego needs to stop Donovan. Philadelphia's kicker David Akers is still out; backup Todd France is 4 of 5 on field goals.
Prediction: Chargers, 24-21.

San Francisco (1-4) at Washington (3-2), 1 p.m.
Earlier in the season, I really wouldn't have cared about this game. Come to think of it, I don't now either. Joe Gibbs could be atop the NFC East by Sunday night. Weird stuff.
Prediction: Redskins, 31-6.

Dallas (4-2) at Seattle (4-2), 4:05 p.m.
Dallas RB Julius Jones is questionable with a bad ankle. No running game for Drew Bledsoe equals 4-3 for Dallas. Dallas rookie WR Patrick Clayton is also out, replaced by Peerless Price. Dallas has the No. 7 defense in the league, though. They'll need it, because Seattle has the top-ranked offense (didn't see that coming, did you?). Seattle RB Shawn Alexander is coming of a 141-yard performance, but Dallas is tough against the run. Bledsoe gets sacked.
Prediction: Seahawks, 26-17.

Baltimore (2-3) at Chicago (2-3), 4:15 p.m.
Here's one of those instances when win-loss records mean nothing. Baltimore is in last in the AFC North. Chicago is first in the NFC North. Baltimore might end up close to .500. Chicago might not win another game. Safety Ed Reed is out, and LB Ray Lewis is probable. To win, Baltimore will have to score. Games like this are pretty good to watch, but not fun at all to write about. Or predict.
Prediction: Ravens, 13-10.

Buffalo (3-3) at Oakland (1-4), 4:15 p.m.
Randy Moss is questionable. That means things on many levels, but really it's because he bruised his ribs last week against San Diego. Buffalo could be all alone in first in the AFC East with a win. Oakland's only chance is to get the benefit of every judgment call in the game at their home field. All the stats add up to Buffalo claiming first place.
Prediction: Bills, 23-10.

Denver (5-1) at N.Y. Giants (3-2), 4:15 p.m.
Two fairly evenly matched teams, but Denver's defense -- or New York's lack thereof, will be the difference. Denver QB Jake Plummer has been playing well, and New York is 31st against the pass. Plummer's success is partially due to Denver's No. 3 rushing offense. New York WR Plaxico Buress is questionable with back spasms.
Prediction: Broncos, 27-24.

Tennessee (2-4) at Arizona (1-4), 4:15 p.m.
Someone has to win this game.
Prediction: Cardinals, 10-9.

Monday, Oct. 24
N.Y. Jets (2-4) at Atlanta (4-2), 9 p.m.
Significant injuries keep piling up for New York, but RB Curtis Martin broke out for 148 yards last week. Meanwhile, Atlanta gave up a zillion yards to New Orleans before stealing a game last week, and Michael Vick is almost back to "normal." Atlanta shouldn't need the officials' help this week.
Prediction: Falcons, 28-13.

Bye week: Carolina, Jacksonville, New England, Tampa Bay

Last week: 12-2.
Season: 51-37.
Those 12-2s really help, eh?

Enjoy the games.

Week 7 Picks, Part I

Friday, October 21
Kansas City @ Miami, 7 p.m.

Ricky Williams finds some holes in the K.C. defense, but the Chiefs have too much firepower. Home field isn't particularly relevant, especially with the late change of schedule. Nick Saban needs to pull a rabbit from a hat for Miami to even their record. Gus Frerotte just isn't the answer. Chiefs' special teams come through to keep pace with Denver.

Prediction: Chiefs, 33-20

Pats Sign Two, Relase One, One to IR

Today, the New England Patriots re-signed cornerback Hank Poteat and receiver Andre Davis. They also placed safety Guss Scott on injured reserve and released linebacker Wesley Mallard.

Poteat was first acquired by the Patriots in January and played in New England's three playoff games, recording three tackles. He was released by the Patriots in the final preseason cut. He previously played three seasons in Pittsburgh and one in Tampa Bay.

Davis was acquired in a trade with Cleveland in August and was listed as inactive for the Patriots first three games this season before being released on Sept. 28. He previously played three seasons in Cleveland.

Scott was drafted by New England in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft. Scott was placed on injured reserve for his entire rookie season. This season, he played in five games with two starts, recording 19 tackles (16 solo) and five special teams tackles. Scott injured his knee, presumably in the Atlanta Falcons game, missed portions of practice the following week, and did not play against Denver.

Mallard played in the Patriots first two games this season before being release Sept, 27, then being re-signed Oct. 12, and playnig against Denver. He was signed by New England as a free agent in April, previously playing three seasons for the New York Giants.

Your Comments and Wishes for Tedy Bruschi

Hey, Patriot Nation!
Tedy Bruschi is coming back!

For the record, I'm happy to see him return, and I wish him the absolute best of luck, health and happiness.
His decision to return was between him, his doctors and his family. If this is his decision, I, for one support him. If he had decided to retire, I would have supported that too. If he changes his mind later, so be it.

Let's hear what you have to say.

Do you support his decision?
Should someone have prevented it?
Have a message for Tedy?

Post your comment ... now.

The Dumbest Guy on WEEI

A million thanks to whatever superior being is responsible for Michael Holley's presence on WEEI. He is represents the only semblance of reason before 2 p.m.

Unfortunately, before, during and after Holley's 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. slot, there's several concentrations of stupidity and a couple of big black holes.

For a long time, I've thought Fox 25's Butch Stearns was clearly the dumbest person on WEEI. My brother has speculated that Stearns got the Fox 25 sports anchor job because the newscast was about to go live, and Stearns happened to be standing there. How he ended up on WEEI, I'll never know. Maybe he just showed up in the parking lot one day, and someone thought he was homeless and brought him into the studio for hot coffee.

I don't think a day has gone by that Stearns has been on the radio that he hasn't said something indiscernible, inconsequential, incomprehensible, unconscionable or irresponsible. Start with the whole Curt Schilling "Butchslap" incident, and if you cared enough to pay much attention, you could go on endlessly. It hasn't been important enough for me to catalog his stream of ridiculous statements, so we'll move on.

As clueless and often wrong as Stearns is, at least he's spineless enough to back off when confronted with intelligence. It must happen everyday, so he has lots of practice.

However, WEEI is home to more than one idiot that refuses to back down even when confronted with overwhelming evidence and intelligence.

Case in point: Dale Arnold.

Dale Arnold is the kind of guy that makes Pete Sheppard look like Copernicus.

I wrote about Arnold in August when he was labeling callers "dummies" and such (Arnold's Band of Dummies). Read it. It's good. Plus I don't want to recount the whole episode here.

Arnold's most recent transgression involves the debate over whether current New England Patriots defensive coordinator Eric Mangini is as good as the last def coord, Romeo Crennel, who is now in Cleveland.

Arnold's contention is that he isn't because Crennel won 14 games last year when there were major injuries to defensive players. Holley, fortunately, didn't let him get away with it. Arnold stuck to his guns though. He refused to acknowledge the mountain of evidence Holley presented and categorically stated that Mangini is nowhere near as good a coordinator as Crennel.

Taking Sides

Arnold's argument: Crennel lost only 2 games when there were injuries to the defensive unit.

Here are the Patriots injuries from 2004: Ty Law, Tyrone Poole
Game 1 vs. Indy: No defensive players, 5 offensive players
Game 2 @ Arizona: No defensive players, 5 offensive players
Game 3 @ Buffalo: No defensive players, 5 offensive players
Game 4 vs. Miami: Tyrone Poole (Q), 6 offensive players
Game 5 vs. Seattle: Poole (Q), 6 offensive players
Game 6 vs. NY Jets: Poole (Q), 8 offensive players
Game 7 @ Pittsburgh: Poole (Q), Dan Klecko (O), 7 offensive players
Game 8 @ St. Louis: Poole (O), Ty Law (O), Larry Izzo (Q), 8 offensive players

To this point, we were all wondering how the Patriots were winning with all the offensive injuries. Things finally "caught up" to them when Dillon sat out of the Pittsburgh game on Halloween, remembered for ending the record 21-game winning streak. Yet the injuries mounted, and the Patriots kept winning. Klecko's and Izzo's injuries were shrugged off as "not affecting major personnel."

The Rams game was the first game Troy Brown played defense. Arnold talks like he played DB all season. In fact, Pittsburgh was the first game Brown played at all, and offense only, since he was injured early in the game against Buffalo four weeks earlier. You can also see that the Patriots schedule was much easier than this season's.

Second Half of 2004

Game 9 vs Buffalo: Law (O), Poole (O), Matt Chatham (Q), Mike Vrabel (Q), Larry Izzo (P), Asante Samuel (P), 3 offensive players
Game 10 @ KC: Law (O), Poole (O), Chatham (O), Keith Traylor (Q), 3 offensive players
Game 11 vs. Baltimore: Law (O), Poole (D), Chatham (Q), Samuel (Q), Randall Gay (Q), Roman Phifer (Q), 2 offensive players
Game 12 @ Cleveland: Law (O), Poole (D), Samuel (Q), Phifer (Q), Vrabel (Q), Gay (P), 2 offensive players
Game 13 vs. Cincinnati: Law (O), Poole (D), Samuel (Q), Phifer (Q), Chatham (Q), Gay (P), 4 offensive players
Game 14 @ Miami: Law (O), Poole (O-IR), Chatham (O), Dexter Reid (O), Gay (Q), Phifer (Q), Samuel (Q), Rodney Harrison (P), 5 offensive players
Game 15 @ NY Jets: Reid (O), Chatham (O), Gay (O), Law (Q), Samuel (Q), 5 offensive players
Game 16 vs. San Francisco: Reid (D), Richard Seymour (D), Chatham (Q), Gay (Q), Law (Q), Samuel (Q), Earthwind Moreland (Q), Eugene Wilson (Q), 7 offensive players

As we can see, the defensive injuries didn't pile up until the end of the season, and except for Poole and Law, you don't see a lot of big names on the list. And let's face it, that's not a terribly brutal schedule.

Keith Traylor missed a game with the flu. He's the only defensive lineman on the list until Seymour appears in Game 16. Phifer is the only major linebacker who missed any time, and he didn't miss much, and he wasn't even starting.

Game 16 has the most defensive players (8) listed, many of those could have played, and most of them weren't regular starters.

We're not even going to look at this season's injuries report, knowing that the numbers are inflated.

Here's who didn't play against Denver: Tedy Bruschi (PUP), Ted Johnson (ret.), Tyrone Poole (O), Richard Seymour (Out), Rodney Harrison (IR), Chad Scott (O-IR), Guss Scott (O), and Marquise Hill (O).

Bruschi, Johnson, Poole, Harrison and Seymour. Five major starters that Crennel had that Mangini doesn't. Crennel lost Law, who was debatable the defensive secondary leader, easily replaced by Harrison. Mangini lost d-line leader Seymour, DB leader Harrison, and linebacker leader and overall defensive general Bruschi.

Yet, Arnold says Crennel was just as disadvantaged as Mangini. Nothing Holley or anyone else said could convince him different. This is one stupid person. Of course, that's "just my opinion," right, Dale? I can have an opinion, can't I?

And Down the Stretch They Come!

Just when you thought it was settled, here comes the dark horse.

John Dennis not only proved himself to be the dumbest person on WEEI, he proved himself to be quite possibly one of the dumbest people on the planet.

The same guy who lambastes doctors and lawyers when they call in to question coaching decisions because doctors and lawyers don't have expertise in coaching and don't have information the coaches have is the same guy who lambastes doctors for saying "Bruschi categorically cannot have the same kind of stroke he has had; football cannot cause it," despite the fact that they have years of expertise in the field, have far more evidence and information, and have probably forgotten more about cardiology than John Dennis will ever know about anything. If there's any true definition of moron, it's John Dennis.

A cardiologist called and hand-held Dennis and Callahan through how Bruschi's stroke occurred, what caused it, what was done to fix the cause, how it is virtually impossible for the same thing to reoccur, and how it is absolutely impossible for football to cause the same event. Impossible. The doctor said Bruschi was no more at risk of a head injury than any other football player, and that was at no more risk of complications due to injury than any other football player. The doctor answered every question John Dennis had, detailed and in terms that even the thickest skull could absorb it. And when it was all said and done, Dennis -- knowing more and having much deeper and wider experience -- dismissed the doctor.

Quite obviously, John Dennis knows more than anyone on the planet.

"Am I allowed to have an opinion?" he asks when someone disagrees with him. I don't know, John. Is anyone else? You never allow anyone to have an opinion that differs from yours.

Now, he'll probably deny all of this (because he's a moron), but the recordings don't lie.

Not the First Time

I'd let him off the hook, if this were an isolated incident, blatant as it is; but there are so many occasions he will recount something that happened and just have all the facts wrong. I had a great example a couple weeks ago, but I let him slide on that one. I should have written it down. He was describing a sequence of events -- for the life of me, I can't remember the topic -- and he had about half the details wrong. It doesn't matter that I can't pinpoint it, Dennis deals with conjecture instead of facts all the time anyway.

Callahan sounded like he knew Dennis was wrong but probably kept quiet figuring maybe he was mistaken himself. Even John Meterparel, who seems to have a better memory than either of the two hosts, kept silent. It was embarrassing. Caller after caller corrected him, but he refused to believe. And it was something that was on television all the previous night and that morning. All Dennis had to do was turn on a monitor, which I know they have in the studio. But far be it from him to check the facts.

He keeps saying that the Krafts and Belichick are uneasy with this decision, but I haven't seen, read or heard anywhere (outside of "Dennis & Callahan") to support that.

He asks callers, "What evidence do you have?" And -- those who weren't doctors -- had none. What evidence do you have, John? The callers that were doctors documented plenty of evidence, which the idiot John Dennis roundly ignored. I guess his years and years of sitting around on his ass and playing golf has given him a more valid opinion than cardiologists and neurologists.

He made some other ludicrous statement, which I will paraphrase, because the original statement is so nonsensical: Something to the effect that never before has a 32-year-old linebacker come back from such a condition, and therefore no one can say with any certainty that Bruschi would be safe. That because football is a contact sport, it's different from any other situation.

No, it's not. One has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Once again, John Dennis is unable to obtain a strangle hold on the simplest of facts.

Using his logic, Columbus never would have sailed to the New World, Magellan never could have circumnavigated the globe, man could never have set foot on the moon. There would be no evidence that it could happen since it never happened previously.

You know what, John? The next time a 32-year-old linebacker wants to return to the NFL after suffering something close to what Bruschi encountered, there will be evidence that it's possible. But for you, such information will never be available.

Practicing What You Preach

John, have you ever heard people talk about how living near power lines, using cell phones and being exposed to excessive radio waves cause cancer in the brain? There's plenty of evidence. Yet, you continue to work at a radio station and wear a headset. What person in their right mind would ignore all this evidence and put themselves at risk? Have you discussed it with your doctor? Your family? Does Mrs. John Dennis worry every time you don a headset?

I always thought John Dennis was an idiot when he was on the local TV news. Then he disappeared. I figured someone finally wised up. Then he shows up on the morning show on WEEI. At the time, I couldn't believe it. But I guess they need at least one complete idiot during every time slot.

I've been around the block a few times. I've met some dumb people. There are some, like Butch Stearns, who are just ignorant of the world around them, and they tend to make stupid statements based on their misinformation. There are people like Dale Arnold, who twist facts and use half-truths to form arguments to draw their ridiculous conclusions. But, it's people who refuse to alter their thinking, should they be the last person on earth to hold such conviction when confronted with all the available facts, figures, evidence, documentation and expert analysis, who are simply the dumbest.

Congratulations, John Dennis, you are the dumbest guy on WEEI.

Patriots-Broncos: Analysis and Comment

I'm not terribly disappointed in 3-3, all things considered. Looking at the schedule before the season, it was clear that the first six games marked the toughest part of the schedule. With all the injuries the Patriots have sustained, it's almost a miracle they're not 2-4 or 1-5. I mean, they beat Pittsburgh and Atlanta on the road. The only game that was a sure bet was Game 1 out of the gate against horrible Oakland.

The unfortunate thing is that they could just as easily be 4-2, maybe even 5-1. Yesterday's game, certainly, was winnable. It's one of the few cases that Bill Belichick's "They made more plays than we did" applies precisely.

Anyone who watched the game (I'm pretty sure most of you reading did) knows three of the plays Denver made that the Patriots didn't. We all know Dwight Starks got burned -- no torched -- no cremated -- on two of them and brought up the rear on the third (at least he made the tackles).

But Bill Belichick earlier today on "The Big Big Show" refused to throw anyone under the bus. He chose to spread the blame to everyone -- the rest of the players on the field, and the coaches too. The two passing plays were blitzes. Belichick said the outcome of those plays probably would have been different if New England got any semblance of pressure on Jake Plummer -- even better if they sacked him. But that didn't happen, and Starks is this week's goat, right or wrong.

But let's face it, outside of Tom Brady, who had a decent game, Patrick Pass, who had a great game, and Mike Vrabel, who also had a great game, no one else did much of anything. Richard Seymour, sitting out with an injured knee, did as much as almost anyone on the field.

As I said in my comments during the game, it all starts and ends with line play on both sides of the ball, and on both sides of the ball, the Patriots lost. On both sides of the ball, the Patriots are seriously shorthanded.

On offense, Matt Light is already out, and then guard Logan Mankins gets himself tossed. The result is no open lanes for running backs, especially on the left side, and no pass protection for Tom Brady, especially on the left side. Brady and Pass still did well enough, but I'm pretty sure these facts helped Belichick decide to keep Corey Dillon on the sideline.

That whole situation is one of the items that made dozens of people draw the same conclusion: Doesn't this remind you of the Halloween debacle in Pittsburgh last year? Man, it's tough enough just remembering that game, and then we had to relive it yesterday. I'm sure the players feel even worse.

Anyway, the defense was missing Richard Seymour, and against a team like Denver, that's simply debilitating. There was no initial run stopping, which made things more difficult on the linebackers, who couldn't stop anyone, which made things more difficult on the secondary. Plus, no pass rush, no pressure, no turnovers.

Whatever problems the Patriots experienced on the rest of the field can be traced back to those depleted lines.

So what are the solutions? Well, the Mankins thing is solved easily. He'll be fined. He'll be dogged in practice. He'll learn. He won't do it again. Not in view of cameras and officials.

Solving the injuries comes down to what it always has. Everyone else has to elevate their games. Simple as that. You can't replace Seymour. You have to compensate for him. You can't replace Harrison. You have to compensate for him. Corey Dillion's return will help, as will Seymour's (if his injury's not serious). So will Bruschi's ... eventually. Until he is 100 percent, hitch up your pants, cinch your belt, and tighten that chinstrap.

Right now? Take a breath. It's the bye week.

Back Up the Bus

The 5th Quarter guys were quick to throw Monty Beisel and Chad Brown under the bus. I think that's a lot of BS. Sure, they're not making a lot of plays, and they're not nearly what Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson where. At the same time, Seymour and Rodney Harrison were the defensive field captains under field general Bruschi.

When your whole command structure has been eliminated, there's bound to be chaos, and there was. You can't expect these guys to be what other guys were in just a few weeks, especially minus the entirety of the veteran leadership. It's nonsensical.

What Goes Around Comes Around, Scrooge

One of the more disappointing moments of the game was the last play of the first half. Adam Vinatieri missed his first field goal attempt ever at Mile High, and Mankins was ejected for hitting Ebenezer Ekuban below the belt.

"It was a cheap shot," Ekuban said. "Hopefully, the NFL will fine him heavily."

It's obvious what Mankins did. It's on video. I'll tell you this right now: If you think he did it out of spite or just to be vicious, think again. Ekuban did something to deserve it. (There's an outside chance someone else did something to deserve it, and Mankins had the wrong guy.) Hey, Ekuban, what goes around comes around. I hope you get your wish and the NFL fines Mankins heavily. Then I hope someone cut blocks you and ends your career.

If you think that's mean and uncalled for, so is most of what Denver's players do on a play-to-play basis. They have a reputation as the dirtiest team in the league, and not for nothing. I repeat, what goes around comes around.

Shutupphilsimms.com

Speaking of annoying, why are New England sports fans constantly barraged and tortured by commentators like Phil Simms and Tim McCarver? We'd be much better off with the number 5 or 6 team of up-and-comers, guys who are actually trying to not only do a good job but call an impartial game.

Simms had every close call going for Denver (until he was proven wrong beyond the shadow of a doubt). For example, the late hit on Brady. Simms railed against the call for about a minute before one camera angle showed definitive proof he was smacked in the face.

He also thought the overturned touchdown should have counted (an elbow counts for a knee), that Givens pass was incomplete (I don't think there was "irrefutable" evidence to overturn that one, but apparently there was), and that Givens touchdown shouldn't have been overturned. First, Denver didn't have anymore challenges. Second, they couldn't have challenged a "judgment" call. Third, Givens got both feet inbounds, rendering all Simms other hot air moot.

Post-Game, Week 6: Patriots 20 @ Denver 28

The New England Patriots made a late-game rush, but it wasn't enough to overcome early mistakes, and the Denver Broncos handed the Pats their third loss of the season, 28-20, Sunday at Mile High.

New England came back from 28-3, scoring 17 unanswered points in the third and fourth quarters. The Patriots punted the ball away with just under 4 minutes to play on a 4-and-20 and never got another chance to tie the game.

First, the good news, there was little enough of it. Patrick Pass had a great day in relief of the injured Corey Dillon (ankle) who missed his first game of the season. Pass finished with 64 yards rushing on 10 carries and 89 yards on 6 receptions to lead the team in both categories. Unfortunately, the Patriots couldn't simply give him the ball every play.

Tom Brady also had a good -- not great -- day. He finished with 299 yards and a touchdown on 24 of 46 (.522) passing. After a good start, Brady hit a 5 of 20 skid from 1:21 left in the first to 7:30 left in the third. That's when he resumed control and led New England to a field goal and a pair of touchdowns.

The ultimate unraveling came with 4:03 left to play. David Givens cut across the middle on 1st and 10 from the Patriots 38. Brady put the pass right in front of him, but Givens wasn't looking for the pass until it was just about there, and it deflected harmlessly through his hands. Givens said after the game that he should have caught the ball.

Under pressure on the next play, Brady was called for intentional grounding, resulting in a 3rd and 20 from the 28. Branch was hammered a couple yards short of the first down and dropped the ball, and New England was forced to punt.

The Patriots actually got off to a decent start. The moved the ball and controlled the field position game. They got on the scoreboard first on an Adam Vinatieri field goal about 6 minutes into the game. On Denver's next series, Asante Samuel leveled Denver tight end Jeb Putzier in what looked like a hopeful sign for the future 50 minutes.

New England held a 3-0 lead after one quarter. And then came the turn.

There's plenty more bad news. The Patriots gave up three plays of 50 yards or more, each of which led to one of Denver's first three touchdowns. Duane Starks was horribly burned in single coverage on the first two, a 72-yarder from Jake Plummer to Rod Smith early in the second quarter, and a 55-yarder to Ashley Lelie less than three minutes later.

Plummer finished the game 17 of 24 for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has not thrown an interception for 17 quarters.

The play following the first-half two-minute warning, Tatum Bell cut back across the center at the line of scrimmage and burst upfield for 68 yards. Almost fittingly, Starks was in on the tackle.

Logan Mankins didn't help matters by getting tossed from the game on the last play of the first half when he hit Denver defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban below the belt. Viniateri also missed a field goal for the first time ever at Mile High on the play (7 previous sucessful attempts).

Wait, there's more bad news. The Patriots failed to force a turnover for the third straight game. Linebacker Monty Beisel forced a fumble, but the Patriots didn't recover. A Plummer pass sailed through a Patriots' hands late in the game. (There's actually some good news there: The Pats didn't give up a turnover either.)

And more bad news: Denver was 100 percent successful in the red zone. Denver accumulated 178 yards rushing (granted about 9o of it was on two plays), which almost undoubtedly will send New England to the bottom of the rankings against the rush. Denver committed 11 penalties (good news), but New England ended up committing 8 (bad). Amos Zereoue had only 14 yards on 7 carries.

Brady's 5 of 20 stretch wasn't entirely his own fault either. Several of those passes were on target only to be simply dropped. Several were simply bad, bad passes. Brady was under pressure all day, even more so after Mankins' ejection. Tight end play appeared to be nonexistant -- Ben Watson and Daniel Graham had only 1 catch each -- but as Tom Brady explained on Dennis and Callahan, the tight ends were used primarily for blocking and pass protection.

The defensive line put little pressure on Plummer and had a very tough time with initial run stopping. The linebacking corps did little to help.

Mike Vrabel led the team with 13 tackles (8 solo) and remains the only Patriot with an interception this season.

While New England hasn't lost consective games in 38 games, they have yet to win consecutive games this season.

The Patriots (3-3) have a bye next week and then host co-AFC-East-leader Buffalo (3-3) on Oct. 30 at 8:30 p.m. Buffalo is at Oakland next Sunday at 4:15 p.m. Denver (5-1) faces the New York Giants (3-2) in the Meadowlands next Sunday at 4:15 p.m.

Patriots @ Broncos open thread

OK, Patriot Nation, this is a big one.
Win, and go into the desperately needed bye week at 4-2 with a smoother road a head.
Lose, and you head in 3-3, and the road gets a lot more uphill.
Let's here it for the local brusing Bronco busters!

Week 6 Picks

No time for comments. I may try to flesh out later. Or not.

Atlanta at New Orleans in San Antonio, TX, 1 p.m.
Falcons, 17-14

Carolina at Detroit, 1 pm
Panthers, 24-21

Cincinnati at Tennessee, 1 pm
Bengals, 20-17

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1 pm
Browns, 24-10

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, 1 pm
Steelers, 10-3

Miami at Tampa Bay, 1 pm
Buccaneers, 27-17

Minnesota at Chicago, 1 pm
Bears, 34-9

N.Y. Giants at Dallas, 1 pm
Cowboys, 24-23

Washington at Kansas City, 1 pm
Chiefs, 30-23

New England at Denver, 4:15 p.m.
Broncos, 31-27

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo, 4:15 p.m.
Bills, 24-13

San Diego at Oakland, 4:15 p.m.
Chargers, 27-20

Houston at Seattle, 8:30 p.m.
Seahawks, 31-14

Monday, Oct. 17
St. Louis at Indianapolis, 9 p.m.
Colts, 35-20

Game Preview: Week 6, Patriots @ Denver

If you told me the Patriots would be 3-2 at this point in the schedule, I would have agreed. In my preseason analysis of these here New England Patriots, except that outside of the first game blowout of the Raiders, I had picked the next four games wrong. But, being 2 wins and 2 losses anyway left me at the same point.

Now comes one more monumental challenge before the desperately needed bye week.

Denver (4-1) leads the AFC West, what passes for this season's powerhouse division, by two games over Kansas City (2-2) and San Diego (2-3) . Despite the surprise of many "experts," this could be the Broncos year. They're led by a solid one-two punch of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson, who combined have amassed just under 600 yards.

The Patriots run defense, despite a couple good efforts against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, has been suspect since the preseason. While you may have done a pretty good job to erase if from your memory, the fact remains San Diego ran roughshod over New England at Gillette Stadium just two weeks ago. On the other hand, Bill Belichick would consider that ancient history.

But it would definitely be a mistake to ignore Denver's recent roll. Quarterback Jake Plummer has been far more consistent and careful with the ball. Unlike last year when he threw for over 4,000 yards, he's barely on a pace to hit 3,000 this year. His patience has increase, and the result is Plummer is living up to the potential he's always shown.

Plummer certainly has weapons with wide receivers Rod Smith (28 receptions, 309 yards, 1 TD), Ashley Lelie (11, 113, 1) and Charlie Adams (10, 109). Tight ends Stephen Alexander, one of the best in the game, and Jeb Putzier have contributed nearly 20 catches together, and Anderson is also a threat out of the backfield with eight catches this season. Plummer, perhaps vastly overrated earlier in his career is now vastly underrated. Don't expect Belichick to make that mistake.

The offensive line has always been one of the better and most feared corps in the league with all their cut blocks and the like.

That in mind, the Patriots defense is going to have its work cut out (no pun intended) for them. That's especially because defensive lineman Richard Seymour was downgraded from "questionable" to "out" on Saturday. Also out Sunday are safety Guss Scott, cornerback Tyrone Poole, defensive lineman Marquise Hill and receiver Troy Brown.

The offenses are inverse images of each other. The Broncos have the No. 2 running attack in the NFL with 148.4 yards per game, while the Patriots are 24th with 81.0 (There's eight teams worse than that?). Meanwhile, New England is fourth in the league in passing (294.8 ypg) and Denver is 26th (164.4 ypg). Overall, the Patriots are fifth, while the Broncs are 21st.

The defenses are a bit more like warped mirror images. Denver is an impressive fifth against the run, allowing just 88.2 ypg. Not good news for a struggling New England running game, especially one that now sports a couple possibly significant injuries. New England is 20th, allowing 114.8 ypg. Not good news due to Denver's offensive ranking. Passing is a little more even with Denver ranked 25th (234.2 ypg) and the Patriots 22nd (222.8 ypg). Overall, Denver 18th, New England 23rd.

Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey is questionable, held out against Jacksonville two weeks ago, he played last week in a slim win over Washington. It might be an area Belichick and Tom Brady look to exploit.

Performance of the New England defensive secondary has, understandably, been largely dismal. Linebacker Mike Vrabel leads New England in interceptions. With one. One. Through five games, the Patriots have one interception. (Sorry, Vince Wilfork).

The Pats have been plagued by un-Belichick-like numbers such as penalties, red-zone defense, and turnover ratio. New England will have to improve in these areas if they expect to compete down the stretch.

Mile High (I'm not calling it that "other" name), like Green Bay's Lambeau Field and the Patriots' Gillette Stadium, remains one of the few places visiting teams cringe when they seem them on the schedule. Sunday's weather may be more conducive to baseball than to football. Light breezes with a game-time (4:15 pm) temperature around 70 degrees. It should cool off during the course of the game, but nothing drastic.

Notes:

The schedule gets a little easier following the bye week with struggling Buffalo on Oct. 30 followed by the toughest game remaining on the schedule, Indianapolis on Nov. 7. Hey, both of those games are at home! New England alternates away and home games the rest of the way after that.

The Halloween Eve game against Buffalo will be the Patriots first division game of the season. I guess the NFL schedulers were hoping to at least keep the division close to that point. Other big non-division games beyond the horizon: New Orleans at Gillette on Nov. 20, at Kansas City the following week, and home against Tampa Bay on Dec. 17. That's it. Take care of business within the division, and at minimum you get a home playoff game.

It's a long road from here to there.

You know what's funny? It's funny when throughout New England's first Super Bowl run of the current dynasty "people" were saying, "They're winning because of the defense," "The offensive line came together to play better than when they played for Bledsoe because they had to protect the young kid," "Brady has a lot more weapons than Bledsoe had or other teams have [I never understood that one]," etc., etc., etc.

Now I'm reading Vic Carucci's "Burning Questions" on NFL.com, and he says, "...there comes a point when you can't help but have doubts about the Patriots' ability to continue to succeed with such a one-dimensional (Tom Brady's throwing arm) offense."

We've gone from the Brady being a lucky nobody who couldn't carry Bledsoe's jock to the two-time defending Super Bowl champions relying solely on his arm. In three years.

Now that's funny.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos at Denver, Colorado.
Locally, this week's game will be broadcast on CBS, Channel 4 @ 4:15 pm with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, and Bonnie Bernstein on the sideline. ... You can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.

Rodney Harrison and Some Other Stuff

There was a lot of stuff I wanted to write about Rodney Harrison after he tore his EverythingCL against the bloodthirsy Pittsburgh Steelers.* Stuff like ...

... I knew his season was over when CBS showed that teary, red-eyed closeup of Harrison being carted off the field. Looked like he did too. He tried to give the fans an encouraging smile, but the pain prevented it. It wasn't the pain of the injury. It was the pain of knowing that he wouldn't be doing what he loves, that he wouldn't be with his teammates.
... When Tedy Bruschi announced his retirement, it was early enough that despite its devastating impact the Patriots had time to recover and plan for his absence. When Ted Johnson retired just days before the season, we rationalized, "OK, we still have Seymour's leadership up front and Harrison's in back." There are only a few players whose injuries would just be debiltating to this team. This is one of them.
... "Rodney Harrison was fined $10,000 by the NFL today for blocking a leg-whip with his knee in Sunday's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers."
... Harrison is one of the toughest SOBs I've really enjoyed watching wear a Patriots uniform -- a real throwback player. I really hope we have the opportunity to enjoy that again. Unfortunately, it doesn't matter how tough an SOB you are, at 39 years old, you just can't do what you body tells you it won't do.
... if there was one guy looking forward to that matchup with San Diego, it was Harrison, and it's a bitter, bitter shame that he didn't get to play. Ever more so that he might have made a difference in the outcome.

We, Patriots Nation, miss you, Rodney.

Good Signs Vs. Falcons
Running Game Gets Going

Corey Dillon had a few really nice runs last Sunday. The flashes we had seen in the previous five games became brilliant sparkling examples of why he is still one of the best in the game -- even if he is *gasp* 31.

Dillon rushed for more than 100 yards (106), and Patrick Pass added 34. Pass could become increasingly important for New England as Dillon has a tweaked ankle and Amos Zereoue yet to get his feet wet in a Pats uniform. Kevin Faulk, of course, is out indefinitely.

Defensive Secondary Bends; LBs = Look Better

Another good sign Sunday was New England's patchwork secondary bending, bending, bending, but not entirely breaking. Better days are ahead, barring any more injuries. I think they have the ability. They just need to work on communication.

The replacement Teds -- Monty Beisel and Chad Brown for Bruschi and Johnson -- are doing "better". At least Bill Belichick thinks so.

"I think they've improved. I think they started at a good level and I think they've improved with each game," Belichick said. "I think they're doing well and I think they can do better. There are some things that they need to work on. They're both instinctive football players, smart guys that when you tell them something, they understand it."

The Falcons ran for only 116 yards. Not their normal 209.

Roster Moves

The Patriots signed free agent safety Arturo Freeman to help shore up that defensive secondary. New England also brought back linebackers Wes Mallard and Erik Alexander, who was left off the 53-man roster. Chad Scott was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. His season is over.

Notre Dame vs. USC

Notre Dame made the mistake of scoring with too much time left. What happened from there remains questionable and, I'm sure, will be debated endlessly for the week. Funny seeing Pete Carroll and Charlie Weis square off was something to behold. Weis got screwed in the end.


* I bet that generates a couple comments. I hope it does.

Why Michael Vick Is Not A Real Quarterback

I wasn't sold on this guy when he entered the league. I wasn't sold on him his first five years in the league. I was thinking about buying into him this season -- until he sat out the Patriots game.

Why? Quick quiz: How many times in his career has Vick thrown for three or more touchdowns in one game? (Answer a bit later)

Vick's replacement, Matt Schaub, some guy I had never heard of even though this is his third season with the Falcons, shredded an injury-depleted New England defense (which is still better than most of the league's healthy defenses) for 298 yards and three touchdowns. He moved around in the pocket, even scrambled a little bit, and connected with receivers most people didn't know existed on the Falcons. I mean, someone besides Alge Crumpler caught a pass. In fact, six different receivers caught passes.

OK, maybe that's not entirely fair. In the first four games of the season, Vick connected with 6 receivers on 12 completions (a win against Philly), 5 on 11 completions (a loss to Seattle), 6 on a BIG 15 completions (win vs. Buffalo), and 6 on 6 completions before he was injured in a win against the Vikings.

For the record, Schaub completed 18 passes in his losing effort to New England, and 5 to 4 receivers in relief against Minnesota.

That's the difference between Vick and guys like (I can't believe I'm using these two names in the same sentence) Brady and Schaub. Brady and Schaub are "quarterbacks." Vick is a "playmaker." Ya, he's fantastic, and he wins a lot of games. But, please, stop calling him a great "quarterback." He isn't.

OK, time for our quiz answer. Matt Schaub, who has played in only 11 NFL games and started only two, had three touchdowns and 298 yards in the loss to New England. How many times in Vick's four-plus year career has he thrown for three or more touchdowns in his career?

Answer: Zero.

This isn't like Pedro Martinez being a Hall of Fame pitcher and never throwing a no-hitter, when even Derek Lowe has thrown a no-hitter. Lowe was an anomaly. It's "really hard" to throw a no-hitter. Just about any quarterback with more than a few starts in the NFL has thrown three touchdowns in a game.

I could have picked almost any QB stat in the book. Vick isn't great in any of them, except winning percentage, which some people will argue is the only one that counts. I agree, that's the most important stat for a team. But when you're ready to decide who gets a bronze bust in Canton, no one with a good conscience and half a brain could vote for Vick -- unless the rest of his career is lot different.

And for those of you who say, "Well, what if he wins two or three Super Bowls?" Well, I wouldn't hold my breath, and (you've heard my say it before) as Drill Instructor Sgt. Rodruiguez used to say, "If? IF? If grasshoppers had machine guns, birds wouldn't f*** with them." I'll say this, any Super Bowl team with a decent defense and an excellent coach should be able to game-plan for Vick for one game.

You know what I wish Atlanta would do? Bring in the wishbone. Just admit the fact that you don't have a normal quarterback and throw "DVD" (that's running back [Warrick] Dunn, Vick and RB [T.J.] Duckett, for the uninitiated) into the backfield and run the wishbone. Now that would be exciting.

Wouldn't it?

Open Discussion Thread: Patriots @ Falcons

Michael Vick is OUT for today's game. So let's hear it Patriot Nation!

Game Preview: Week 5, Patriots @ Falcons

Sorry, I just didn't have time for this. You'll have to live with the paragraph in the general Week 5 picks.

Week 5 Picks

Ah, Week 5. The week when everything settles out, and the teams that should win, win. Most of the time. Sometimes. It's like the general said in the second half of Full Metal Jacket. "We have to keep our heads until this peace craze blows over." Geez, you know, I really though we had "parity" beat last year.

Now you have New England and San Diego both at 0-2. Tampa Bay is 4-0, and Green Bay is 0-4 (and they're only one game out of first place!). As Seinfeld said to George, "I don't know what to believe. You're eating onions, you're spotting dimes. I don't know what the hell is going on!" Twelve of the 14 games this week have point spreads of 3 points or less. Shows that no one in Las Vegas knows what's going on either.

Speaking of Vegas: Hey, Pete!

OK, it's time to put away childish things and act like men. So here are this week's picks:

Sunday, October 9

Baltimore (1-2) at Detroit (1-2), 1 p.m.
What a way to get the ball rolling! You might notice footballs don't roll well. You might especially notice that in this game. Bickering and finger-pointing in both locker rooms. Neither offense can score. Both defenses keep other teams off the board. Both teams 1-2, and both coming off byes. Baltimore needs to start winning if they have any playoff hopes. Detroit can lose another 4 or 5 and still win the division. It's not a matter of which team wants it more as much as which team is ready to mail it in. Derek Mason has 40 percent of Baltimore's receiving yards. Stop him. Lions, 24-21.

Chicago (1-2) at Cleveland (1-2), 1 p.m.
Two more 1-2 teams from the same divisions. Both had byes last week too. Weird stuff, dude! Did you know that the 1985 Cleveland Browns are the only non-strike season team to win a division with a .500 record or worse (They were 8-8.)? Including Minnesota and St. Louis, both 8-8 last year, only 5 other .500 teams have made the playoffs. No, Cleveland probably doesn't have a chance this year. But Chicago, like Detroit, has a chance, and this game is one of the best chances they have this season. Cleveland needs to cut the mistakes and contain RB Thomas Jones. Chicago needs Jones to have at least 100 yards -- not that that guarantees them wins. Browns, 17-10.

Miami (2-1) at Buffalo (1-3), 1 p.m.
Word is that QB Kelly Holcomb will start in place of J.P. Losman for the sputtering Bills today. It might not help, but it can't hurt. Buffalo has lost three straight since beating Houston on opening day. Miami is in first place in the division, coming off their bye and an impressive win over Carolina in Week 3. Miami is amassing 120 yards per game on the ground, where Buffalo's defense is 31st in the league, allowing 172 yards per game. If Holcomb can provide a spark, it could turn the tide. Dolphins, 21-17.

New England (2-2) at Atlanta(3-1), 1 p.m.
Most of New England's defense is sidelined. Atlanta QB Michael Vick has been downgraded to "questionable" on the injury report. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady haven't lost consecutive games in almost three years; but then again, they hadn't lost a home game during that stretch -- until last week. Even Bill Belichick called New England "a team in transition." In this topsy-turvy league, New England is in first in their division; while Atlanta, with one more win, is in second in theirs. Brady has lost more than two games in a season only once, the year New England missed the playoffs. Atlanta leads the league with 209 yards rushing per game. Vick is the wild card. If he doens't play, New England has a shot. Falcons, 31-24.

New Orleans (2-2) at Green Bay (0-4), 1 p.m.
These teams have a combined 17 players listed as "questionable" on the injury report with Green Bay suffering fewer injuries, but to more key players. The Pack has lost its last three games by a total of six points, and we're all pretty sure they're better than their winless record indicates. Heck, they're still just a game out of first place in their division. New Orleans needs another solid performance from Deuce McAllister. This could be Green Bay's best opportunity to turn the season around, and New Orleans chance to build some consistency, stability and momentum. The Frozen Tundra, not yet frozen, is rapidly losing its mystique. Saints, 23-21.

Seattle (2-2) at St. Louis (2-2), 1 p.m.
Seattle has struggled against St. Louis since moving to the NFC West a few years ago. The have yet to beat St. Louis in St. Louis, and Seattle lost all three meetings last year, including the opening round of the playoffs, to the Rams. Both teams have injuries to key receivers. Mike Martz has missed most practices with a heart infection. Fortunately, that shouldn't affect his screwy game planning. Shawn Alexander is a much better running back than anyone in St. Louis. Matt Hasselback is a better quarterback than Marc Bulger. The Seattle defense is better against the pass. There's a first time for everything. Just ask New England. Seahawks, 31-27.

Tampa Bay (4-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-3), 1 p.m.
I'm still not buying into Tampa Bay's 4-0 record, but if there's a team reeling worse than New England, it's the Jets. It all comes down to the "vaunted" offensive line. If they can open holes for Curtis Martin and give Vinny Testeverde some protection, New York might have a shot -- or at least not get embarrassed. Hey, Fireman Ed, try this one today: B-U-C-S, Bucs, Bucs, Bucs. Buccaneers, 24-10.

Tennessee (1-3) at Houston (0-3), 1 p.m.
Here's a barn-burner. Texans, 13-10.

Indianapolis (4-0) at San Francisco (1-3), 4:05 p.m.
I know Chris Berman likes to show a major upset and say "That's why they play the games." But, really. Colts, 38-7.

Carolina (2-2) at Arizona (1-3), 4:15 p.m.
Now, if they were playing in Mexico City .... Panthers, 31-13.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Dallas (2-2), 4:15 p.m.
I expected better out of Dallas this year. I even thought Drew Bledsoe might do something with his last chance. Philly is plagued by injuries, including to placekicker David Akers, which could play a monumental role in this game. Dallas should have a great running game, and doesn't (blame Bledsoe for not making the plays when he has the chance). Donovan McNabb is throwing the ball like they might outlaw it and he wants to get in as many passes as possible. Dallas's pass defense is questionable. Dallas likes playing at home. Doesn't everyone? Eagles, 27-13.

Washington (3-0) at Denver (3-1), 4:15 p.m.
Washington is 3-0? Really? That's pretty weird. That can't continue, can it? No, unless they tie and end up 3-0-1 after this week. "Listen to it: Denver, Denver, Denver. Who would ever want to go there?" The stats say this should be the Game of the Week, right up there with Pats-Falcs and Steels-Chargs. One of the league's oldest coaches against one of the weirdest looking. OK, I guess I have to pick someone. Broncos, 29-27.

Cincinnati (4-0) at Jacksonville (2-2), 8:30 p.m.
Cincinnati is 4-0? Really? That's pretty weird. That can't continue, can it? Wait a minute. I'm having deja-vu and amnesia at the same time. Cincy hasn't played anyone significant yet. Jack's son, Ville, has and hasn't done too shabby. Jacksonville has a lot of injuries, so it's all up to Byron Leftwich (as if one player can win a game single-handedly). Home field helps. Sometimes. Just ask New England. Jaguars, 20-10.

Monday, Oct. 10
Pittsburgh (2-1) at San Diego (2-2), 9 p.m.:
Wow, I really should take this game seriously. Pittsburgh is coming off their bye week, which followed an emotional loss to New England. San Diego is coming off an emotional thrashing of New England. Both teams would really like to win this game. Steelers stellar RB Jerome Bettis is expected to play, but who knows which Bettis will show up until he takes the ball? We know which LaDainian Tomlinson it will be. Can someone besides New England knock off Ben Roethlisberger? Can anyone honestly tell me whether Drew Brees is really for real? Ground game. Smash mouth. Cowher's chin. Schottenheimer's brain. Chargers, 23-20.

Bye week: Kansas City, Minnesota, N.Y. Giants, Oakland

Last week: 8-6. Not good.
Season: 32-28. Entirely unacceptable.