Game Preview: Week 8, Patriots vs. Buffalo

The story of the week, to no one's surprise, is Tedy Bruschi (sorry, John Dennis).

At some point tonight, Bruschi will make his return to the field as the New England Patriots play their first division game of the season against the visiting Buffalo Bills. No matter when he actually takes the field, his impact will be felt well before the game starts and will come to a head during team introductions. While the Pats still are introduced as a team, you know that Gillette Stadium will be filled with a low-humming Bruuuuuuuu, and the scoreboard video operator will coincidentally have a live shot of No. 54 for all to see. There will be a red, white and deep blue sea of No. 54 jerseys in the stands.

What happens from there is anyone's guess, whether Bruschi starts, plays significant time, makes significant plays, has significant impact directing and settling (up to now) a chaotic defense. With more than two-thirds of the Patriots top defensive backs out for the season, or at least the game, Bruschi's presence could be the difference.

Buffalo has certainly had trouble of late. After a couple solid performances by Kelly Holcombe, Buffalo got crushed by a questionable Oakland squad, one that before the season should have been chalked up as an automatic. So there is some question -- as there always seems to be in Buffalo -- who is going to start at quarterback.

Adding insult to injury, Buffalo had a chance to take sole possession of the AFC East against the Raiders. They didn't. They actually fell to second, behind the Patriots, who now have their own opportunity to stake a solid claim to the division lead. But this game is certainly important. Buffalo, so far, is 2-0 in the division.

So, what do the Patriots need to do to win? They need to play like the New England Patriots: Solid defense, few penalties, create turnovers, strong in the red zone, protect the ball, control the ball, battle for field position. They haven't done all those things consistently well this season. They haven't done a lot of the former at all this season. But Bruschi has been one of those guys in the past that made a tremendous difference in those categories. While it's very unlikely that he's in 1995-2004 condition, even a slight impact can make a big difference.

All areas of the defense are still suspect. Up front, an ailing Richard Seymour may return after sitting out against Denver and taking advantage of the bye to heal up. However, Jarvis Green may sit out, which should still be an overall improvement, but you'd really like to have the extra bodies, especially against a team that's likely to test the run defense.

The list of defensive backs available for the game is shorter than the list of the injured. Buffalo has only four plays of 20 yards or more this season. Expect Holcombe/J.P. Losman to look for Eric Moulds deep to at least draw a few penalties if not simply burn a cornerback or two.

Red-zone defense will be under the microscope. Buffalo has allowed 14 touchdowns on 21 opponents' red-zone trips. That 66.7 percent failure rate might look bad, especially since it's 31st in the league. Unfortunately, New England is 32nd at 78.9 percent.

And so, the Patriots are going to have to put a fair -- no, a good -- number of points on the board. Corey Dillon could have another great game against the 31st rushing defense in the league. If he plays. He's still nursing an ankle. Amos Zereoue also has a bruised thigh, but Patrick Pass appears to be healthy, and he's shown he can do some serious damage to a stat sheet.

The good news is that New England doesn't have any wide receivers or tight ends on the injury report, and outside of Matt Light, no offensive linemen. Brady, who actually leads the league in passing (sorry, Ron Borges), remains listed with a shoulder injury, but we know by now that it isn't affecting his game. This healthy passing offense is going to need to carry its nearly crippled defensive counterpart for at least another game.

The Bills are ranked third against the pass, actually allowing fewer yards passing (153.6 ypg) than rushing (159.0 ypg). That may be misleading. With teams running roughshod, they've had little incentive to pass. Buffalo's pass defense is certainly good. They have 9 interceptions, led by Troy Vincent with 3.

Overall, Buffalo is plus-8 in turnover ratio. The Pats are -6. Not good. Mike Vrabel still leads New England with 1 pick. One!

Buffalo has done pretty well on special teams. Terrence McGee is averaging more than 34 yards per kickoff return, and New England has struggled defending returns. Bethel Johnson and Ellis Hobbs have nearly identical 24-plus yards per kickoff return. Neither team has returned a kick or punt for a touchdown this season.

Ryan Lindell is 15 of 16 on field goal attempts, but if it comes down to strictly kicking, well, I'll just say: Adam Vinatieri.

The Pats have won their last two games following the bye, beating the Bills in Buffalo during Week 4 last year amidst New England's record winning streak. The last loss following the bye was home against Denver in 2002. The Pats are 7-9 in their history following the bye, and 3-2 under Bill Belichick. Belichick teams are 10-6 following a bye.

Oh, by the way, New England lost their last game, 28-20, to Denver. They haven't lost back-to-back games in a really long time.

Prediction: Patriots, 34-17.

More good news for you viewers watching at home: You don't have to suffer Phil Simms flag waving for virtually any Patriot opponent. The bad news is you're stuck with play-by-play man Mike Patrick and "analysts" Joe Theismann and buffoon Paul Maguire. The game will also be broadcast on Channel 5. Suzy Kolber will provide meaningless reports and ask inane questions on the sideline. ... As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.