Week 5 Picks

Ah, Week 5. The week when everything settles out, and the teams that should win, win. Most of the time. Sometimes. It's like the general said in the second half of Full Metal Jacket. "We have to keep our heads until this peace craze blows over." Geez, you know, I really though we had "parity" beat last year.

Now you have New England and San Diego both at 0-2. Tampa Bay is 4-0, and Green Bay is 0-4 (and they're only one game out of first place!). As Seinfeld said to George, "I don't know what to believe. You're eating onions, you're spotting dimes. I don't know what the hell is going on!" Twelve of the 14 games this week have point spreads of 3 points or less. Shows that no one in Las Vegas knows what's going on either.

Speaking of Vegas: Hey, Pete!

OK, it's time to put away childish things and act like men. So here are this week's picks:

Sunday, October 9

Baltimore (1-2) at Detroit (1-2), 1 p.m.
What a way to get the ball rolling! You might notice footballs don't roll well. You might especially notice that in this game. Bickering and finger-pointing in both locker rooms. Neither offense can score. Both defenses keep other teams off the board. Both teams 1-2, and both coming off byes. Baltimore needs to start winning if they have any playoff hopes. Detroit can lose another 4 or 5 and still win the division. It's not a matter of which team wants it more as much as which team is ready to mail it in. Derek Mason has 40 percent of Baltimore's receiving yards. Stop him. Lions, 24-21.

Chicago (1-2) at Cleveland (1-2), 1 p.m.
Two more 1-2 teams from the same divisions. Both had byes last week too. Weird stuff, dude! Did you know that the 1985 Cleveland Browns are the only non-strike season team to win a division with a .500 record or worse (They were 8-8.)? Including Minnesota and St. Louis, both 8-8 last year, only 5 other .500 teams have made the playoffs. No, Cleveland probably doesn't have a chance this year. But Chicago, like Detroit, has a chance, and this game is one of the best chances they have this season. Cleveland needs to cut the mistakes and contain RB Thomas Jones. Chicago needs Jones to have at least 100 yards -- not that that guarantees them wins. Browns, 17-10.

Miami (2-1) at Buffalo (1-3), 1 p.m.
Word is that QB Kelly Holcomb will start in place of J.P. Losman for the sputtering Bills today. It might not help, but it can't hurt. Buffalo has lost three straight since beating Houston on opening day. Miami is in first place in the division, coming off their bye and an impressive win over Carolina in Week 3. Miami is amassing 120 yards per game on the ground, where Buffalo's defense is 31st in the league, allowing 172 yards per game. If Holcomb can provide a spark, it could turn the tide. Dolphins, 21-17.

New England (2-2) at Atlanta(3-1), 1 p.m.
Most of New England's defense is sidelined. Atlanta QB Michael Vick has been downgraded to "questionable" on the injury report. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady haven't lost consecutive games in almost three years; but then again, they hadn't lost a home game during that stretch -- until last week. Even Bill Belichick called New England "a team in transition." In this topsy-turvy league, New England is in first in their division; while Atlanta, with one more win, is in second in theirs. Brady has lost more than two games in a season only once, the year New England missed the playoffs. Atlanta leads the league with 209 yards rushing per game. Vick is the wild card. If he doens't play, New England has a shot. Falcons, 31-24.

New Orleans (2-2) at Green Bay (0-4), 1 p.m.
These teams have a combined 17 players listed as "questionable" on the injury report with Green Bay suffering fewer injuries, but to more key players. The Pack has lost its last three games by a total of six points, and we're all pretty sure they're better than their winless record indicates. Heck, they're still just a game out of first place in their division. New Orleans needs another solid performance from Deuce McAllister. This could be Green Bay's best opportunity to turn the season around, and New Orleans chance to build some consistency, stability and momentum. The Frozen Tundra, not yet frozen, is rapidly losing its mystique. Saints, 23-21.

Seattle (2-2) at St. Louis (2-2), 1 p.m.
Seattle has struggled against St. Louis since moving to the NFC West a few years ago. The have yet to beat St. Louis in St. Louis, and Seattle lost all three meetings last year, including the opening round of the playoffs, to the Rams. Both teams have injuries to key receivers. Mike Martz has missed most practices with a heart infection. Fortunately, that shouldn't affect his screwy game planning. Shawn Alexander is a much better running back than anyone in St. Louis. Matt Hasselback is a better quarterback than Marc Bulger. The Seattle defense is better against the pass. There's a first time for everything. Just ask New England. Seahawks, 31-27.

Tampa Bay (4-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-3), 1 p.m.
I'm still not buying into Tampa Bay's 4-0 record, but if there's a team reeling worse than New England, it's the Jets. It all comes down to the "vaunted" offensive line. If they can open holes for Curtis Martin and give Vinny Testeverde some protection, New York might have a shot -- or at least not get embarrassed. Hey, Fireman Ed, try this one today: B-U-C-S, Bucs, Bucs, Bucs. Buccaneers, 24-10.

Tennessee (1-3) at Houston (0-3), 1 p.m.
Here's a barn-burner. Texans, 13-10.

Indianapolis (4-0) at San Francisco (1-3), 4:05 p.m.
I know Chris Berman likes to show a major upset and say "That's why they play the games." But, really. Colts, 38-7.

Carolina (2-2) at Arizona (1-3), 4:15 p.m.
Now, if they were playing in Mexico City .... Panthers, 31-13.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Dallas (2-2), 4:15 p.m.
I expected better out of Dallas this year. I even thought Drew Bledsoe might do something with his last chance. Philly is plagued by injuries, including to placekicker David Akers, which could play a monumental role in this game. Dallas should have a great running game, and doesn't (blame Bledsoe for not making the plays when he has the chance). Donovan McNabb is throwing the ball like they might outlaw it and he wants to get in as many passes as possible. Dallas's pass defense is questionable. Dallas likes playing at home. Doesn't everyone? Eagles, 27-13.

Washington (3-0) at Denver (3-1), 4:15 p.m.
Washington is 3-0? Really? That's pretty weird. That can't continue, can it? No, unless they tie and end up 3-0-1 after this week. "Listen to it: Denver, Denver, Denver. Who would ever want to go there?" The stats say this should be the Game of the Week, right up there with Pats-Falcs and Steels-Chargs. One of the league's oldest coaches against one of the weirdest looking. OK, I guess I have to pick someone. Broncos, 29-27.

Cincinnati (4-0) at Jacksonville (2-2), 8:30 p.m.
Cincinnati is 4-0? Really? That's pretty weird. That can't continue, can it? Wait a minute. I'm having deja-vu and amnesia at the same time. Cincy hasn't played anyone significant yet. Jack's son, Ville, has and hasn't done too shabby. Jacksonville has a lot of injuries, so it's all up to Byron Leftwich (as if one player can win a game single-handedly). Home field helps. Sometimes. Just ask New England. Jaguars, 20-10.

Monday, Oct. 10
Pittsburgh (2-1) at San Diego (2-2), 9 p.m.:
Wow, I really should take this game seriously. Pittsburgh is coming off their bye week, which followed an emotional loss to New England. San Diego is coming off an emotional thrashing of New England. Both teams would really like to win this game. Steelers stellar RB Jerome Bettis is expected to play, but who knows which Bettis will show up until he takes the ball? We know which LaDainian Tomlinson it will be. Can someone besides New England knock off Ben Roethlisberger? Can anyone honestly tell me whether Drew Brees is really for real? Ground game. Smash mouth. Cowher's chin. Schottenheimer's brain. Chargers, 23-20.

Bye week: Kansas City, Minnesota, N.Y. Giants, Oakland

Last week: 8-6. Not good.
Season: 32-28. Entirely unacceptable.