Sunday, September 18, 2005

Game Preview: Week 2: Pats @ Carolina

Bill Belichick has had about 10 days to prepare for this game. That's generally bad news for his team's opponent. If history is our guide, Belichick's New England Patriots start defense of their back-to-back Super Bowls 2-0 heading into the toughest stretch of their schedule; and Carolina, a common pick to dethrone the Pats, floundering at 0-2 following last week's disappointing loss to a hurricane displaced New Orleans Saints.

If it goes the other way, the both teams will be 1-1, but the Patriots could probably sustain the loss a lot easier than could the Panthers. In fact, the Panthers need to win.

Carolina had their own hurricane (Ophelia) to deal with a few days ago, and now they have Hurricane Pat steaming down the East Coast.

Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme has an infection in his lower back, but that's not expected to affect him. The Panthers are already suffering from the loss of Kris Jenkins last week to New Orleans, and that more than anything else has them questioning their ability to get the job done.

New England is banged up on defense, and that could turn the tide. Defensive ends Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green are listed as questionable, with the larger looming punctuation mark. About half of the secondary -- Randall Gay, Tyrone Poole, Chad Scott and Duane Starks -- all nursing injuries. With the linebackers still not fully recovered from the loss of Tedy Bruschi and Ted johnson, and with Carolina's one-two ground punch of Stephen Davis and Deshawn Foster, expect the Patriots to stay in the 4-3 defense they unveiled last week against the Raiders.

The key for New England will be to contain Julius Peppers, keep him away from Tom Brady and give Corey Dillon a few inches to operate. New England's tight ends are going to play a huge role, if the Patriots are to be successful. Beyond receptions, they're going to have to block and distract. Carolina is going to have to respect the general good hands of this group, and that may open things up elsewhere.

History doesn't tell us much about what to expect in this one. It could be the defensive struggle of the first half of Super Bowl XXXVIII or the offense shootout of the second half. Or something in between.

Brady-Belichick are going for their 50th win together.

Prediction: New England 27, Carolina 24.

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