AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals

Steelers Edge Ravens, While Bungals Return to Futility

For two teams in this division, 2005 is the beginning of great new things. For the other two, it's the beginning of the end. For Pittsburgh, it actually the continuation of great new things almost realized last season. The Ben Roethlisberger era continues not quite the way it started, but sunny days are ahead for the black and gold. In Cleveland, the Charlie Weis era begins, and while many gray days remain, it's the future that has a golden gleam for the Brownies. It is the last hurrah for Baltimore, an aging yet still formidable defense and a questionable but improving offense that may be enjoying its last days in the sun. And then there's Cincinnati and the return of the Bungals. Such promise they showed when Marvin Lewis arrived, yet now all that remains are false hopes and a couple loudmouths.

1. Pittsburgh (13-3) The question heading into the season for the stellar Steelers is Will Roethlisberger be the same, or was last year a fluke? It's a question we'll be able to answer only about halfway through the season, but this much we know now: He's not going to have as much help from his receiving corps as he did last year.

Gone is tall, go-getter Plaxico Burress, the guy who almost single-handedly drove the nail into the Patriots 21-game winning streak last season. The 6-foot-5 225-pounder is with the Giants now, replaced -- sort of -- with Antwaan Randle El, 5-10, 192, soaking wet. Roethlisberger isn't just going to be able use his Bledsoe-like "I'll just huck it downfield and see if my guy can get it." routine. Granted, Randle El is much speedier and could add a different dimension to Roethlisberger's game. We'll just have to see if Big Ben has the precision needed to hit a speedy guy on the run.

Pittsburgh's running game was thrown suddenly into question a couple weeks ago, when Jerome Bettis tweaked his right calf during the preseason, and co-starter Duce Staley is still questionable from knee surgery earlier this summer, though he should be ready soon. Even so, injuries two your top two backs this early in the season generally isn't a good sign.

Fortunately, the "smallest" guy on the O line is center Jeff Hartings at 299 pounds. That should help anyone behind the line from getting hit hard or often.

Enter the No. 1 ranked defense in the league -- first against the run, fourth against the pass. If the offense isn't going to score many, the defense isn't going to allow many. Let's start with the front three of this surreal 3-4 set. Nose tackle Casey Hampton, and end Kimo von Oelhoffen and Aaron Smith combined for only 83 tackles all last season. That's because that's not their job so much as clog things up and let the linebackers and defensive backs do their jobs.

Case in point: left inside linebacker James Farrior, who alone out-tackled the front three with 95 tackles of his own. He also had 4 interceptions and 3 sacks. How about Troy Polamalu? He had 94 tackles, 5 INTs and a sack. Or Chris Hope? Ninety tackles, 1 INT. The rest of these guys are just average (note the facetiousness): linebacker Joey Porter (54 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 interception), linebacker Larry Foote (69, 3, 1), cornerback Deshea Townsend (56 tackles, 4 interceptions), cornerback Willie Williams (54, 1) and linebacker Clark Haggans (36 tackles, 6 sacks).

Scary.

Chris Gardocki has been one of the league's top punters for years. His services aren't needed that often, but he delivers when called upon. Kicker Jeff Reed lacks a little accuracy, but Heinz Field is a notoriously tough place to kick. Ricardo Colclough and Randle El share return duties. While both have touchdown potential, neither has broken one in a while.

I don't see a repeat of the Steelers' 15-1 record from last year. Bettis and Staley's absence leaves second-year man Willie Parker as the Steelers wheels for the season/home opener against Tennessee. After a trip to Houston, which is no walk in the park, the Steelers are going to need to be ready when two-time defending champion New England rolls into town in Week 3. A bye during Week 4 is probably not what they wanted, but might be advantageous of Bettis and Staley are slow getting back.

October is full or more tricks than treats with a Monday Night trip to San Diego coming off the bye followed by a pair of home dates against improved Jacksonville and ever-dangerous division opponent Baltimore sandwiching a road trip to doormat Cincinnati. November is definitely a difficult stretch with 3 of 4 games on the road. Fortunately the first, to Green Bay, shouldn't be a major exercise. That's followed by a home date with pushover Cleveland. Then it's on the road for the rematch with Baltimore and another Monday Night trip, this time to Indianapolis.

If the Steelers survive Thanksgiving weekend festivities, the rest of the schedule has them coasting to the playoffs with back-to-back home games against Cincy and Chicago (2 wins), back-to-back roadies at Minnesota and Cleveland (probably 2 wins), and wrap it up at home with a meaningful game with Detroit. The Lions will be playing for their playoff lives, and Pittsburgh will be looking to secure home field advantage.

2. Baltimore (12-4) Baltimore faces a similar predicament as Pittsburgh. Quarterback Kyle Boller is still an unknown quantity. Another Bledsoe prototype, he has the physical qualifications, but his accuracy and decision-making are suspect. Boller doesn't have to become a playmaker, though no one would complain. He just needs to control himself and manage the game when he's on the field. He needs to get rid of the ball, even if it's to the third row in the stands, and he has to avoid defenders breadbaskets.

Running back Jamal Lewis can make Boller's life easier if he stays out of jail. Lewis should have space to run as the Ravens field one of the biggest offensive lines in the game with center Mike Flynn tipping the scales at 305, and he's the smallest guy up front. Supporting him are guards Edwin Mulitalo (345) and Keydrick Vincent (325) and tackles Jonathan Ogden (345) and Orlando Brown (360).

Todd Heap is a mountain with good hands at tight end and should have a good year if he stays healthy. Sure-handed offseason acquisition Derrick Mason is going to be of monumental assistance to Boller, and rookie Mark Clayton should quickly develop into a legitimate threat.

Defensively, Ray Lewis is still the loudest, most obnoxious player on the field, though competition has increased greatly in the last couple years. The Ravens, for all the press they get, were ranked tied for eighth last season, only tenth against the run and sixth against the pass. That could be an indication of the defense getting a year older and slowing down a step. Lewis had 146 tackles, down from the mid-160s. Still an outrageous number.

Right end Terrell Suggs anchors the line in the 4-3 scheme. The secondary is highlighted by safety Ed Reed, who may be the real star on this side of the line, and cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Titan acquisition Samari Rolle. Deion Sanders is on this team for some reason. I guess head loudmouth Brian Billick likes to keep a couple extra loud guys around so he doesn't look like such a loudmouth.

Kicker Matt Stover is solid and reliable. Punter Dave Zastudil kicks them a little short but landed about a third of his punts inside the 20 last year. Return man B.J. Sams has had trouble holding on to the ball in the past but has respectable yardage stats.

The Ravens have a pretty easy schedule, so they should do better than last year's mark of 9-7, but this year may be the peak of the hill. Baltimore opens at home with the best game of Week 1, vs. Indianapolis followed by a stroll through Tennessee. An early bye week won't help in the long run. October is spotty with only two home dates against the Jets and Cleveland, both winnable, but tough road matchups at Detroit in Week 5 and Pittsburgh (Monday) in Week 8. They're also vacationing in Chicago during Week 7.

November opens and closes easy with home and away battles against Cincinnati with a trip to Jacksonville and the second game with Pittsburgh in between. The Ravens will have to pour it on down the stretch, and the schedule should be beneficial, as they have three of four at home in December, facing Houston, Green Bay (Monday) and Minnesota, all winnable. The big road block is a road trip to Denver in Week 14. Baltimore wraps it up in Cleveland on New Year's Day, when they could still be fighting for the division title.

3. Cleveland (4-12) Cleveland made one great move during the offseason that is going to pay off in spades, maybe not this year, but a few years down the road. Landing former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is the thing this team needed more than anything else. Disciplined, level-headed, a task master who is loved for his tough love, Crennel can give Cleveland what it's deserved lo these many years. As long as the Browns fans give Crennel the one thing he needs: patience. It's not going to happen overnight.

Offseason acquisition quarterback Trent Dilfer is another brilliant move. Steady, tough as nails and not afraid to tell off a star, Dilfer is the granite pillar in the storm the Browns need to stabilize this helter-skelter offense. A real leader who knows what it takes, he may not have the best arm or legs, but he does his job and he does it well.

Another superb acquisition that will make Dilfer's job easier is former Patriot guard Joe Andruzzi, maybe the best in the game at his position. Andruzzi has a resume the other linemen will acknowledge, and with three new faces on the line, someone is going to need to be the glue to rein in the horses. That will be Andruzzi. It will take time for them to adjust and gel, but it looks like a good unit, if a little small compared to Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

This is all good news for injury-prone running back Lee Suggs who looks like he's going to start the season on the injury list again. Fortunately, the Browns new general manager Phil Savage (a Scott Pioli clone?) made another brilliant move and brought in former Broncos workhorse Reuben Droughns. Should Suggs falter, Droughns should excel, and he can take a pounding.

Which brings us to the crux of the Browns success or failure. Wide receivers Dennis Northcutt, Antonio Bryant and rookie Braylon Edwards have (and have had) the potential to make the Browns a dangerous downfield team. For whatever reason (lousy offensive line, no running game and quarterbacks just hoping to survive), the passing game never thrived. They're not going to be the greatest show on turf, but stability is the key phrase this season. The loss of Kellen Winslow Jr. (again) is a setback, so don't expect greatness from tight end, although Steve Heiden and Aaron Shea are serviceable.

The 32nd-ranked rushing defense in the NFL can't get any worse. That's the good news. Crennel is a defensive prodigy. That's more good news. That's about all I have for you. This squad is going to struggle mightily, but you can't solve all your problems in one season. Crennel obviously is installing a 3-4 defense, and fortunately Butch Davis in all his non-methodical madness brought in a good number of linebackers, which should be of some consolation.

Kicker Phil Dawson is a little shaky, hovering around 80 percent field goal percentage, but he has the ability to hit the 50-yarder. Punter Kyle Richardson, another newcomer -- this place looks like an expansion franchise again -- is the projected starter, but don't get too attached to him.

Richard Alston should be your kick returner and Northcutt punt returner. Both broke returns for TDs last season (Northcutt, 2).

The Browns definitely want to win the season/home opener against Cincinnati, because it's going to be a tough road after that with trips to Green Bay and Indianapolis. A Week 4 bye to open October may allow Suggs to get ready for the long haul, and a post-bye hosting of Chicago could get the Brownies rolling. Unfortunately they travel to Baltimore right after that. Then they host Detroit and travel to Houston. With the exception of Indianapolis and probably Baltimore, the rest of these games are winnable. I just don't think Crennel will have his new Frankenstein sewn completely together soon enough.

Things aren't so bad in the second half with Tennessee coming to town in Week 9 and Miami in Week 11, but trips to Pittsburgh (Week 10) and Minnesota (12) could pose problems. The Browns have three winnable games to open December, at home against Jacksonville (tough, but winnable) and trips to Cincinnati and Oakland. A Saturday Christmas Eve matchup home against Pittsburgh probably won't lead to a happy holiday though. The Browns have a chance to wreck visiting Baltimore's New Year in the final game of the regular season.

4. Cincinnati (3-13) I'm obviously in the minority here. A lot of people expect good things, but the second half of the schedule (if Cleveland and Buffalo play well) is going to be like running the 400-meter hurdles. They simply don't measure up to Pittsburgh or Baltimore, and if Cleveland improves enough, that could be six losses right there. More about the schedule later.

If this team struggles, it will be a waste of one of the great up and coming quarterbacks in the league. Chris Palmer has definitely shown signs of future greatness, but the front office and coaches didn't go out of their way to help him this offseason. I guess the status quo at 8-8 last year was good enough for them.

Rudi Johnson had a great season last year, and he's going to need to repeat that performance if the Bengals are going to go anywhere. I need a little more convincing before I believe he is the answer in Cincinnati when Corey Dillon wasn't. A heavy-duty offensive line should help, but I'm not quite sold on these guys the way some other experts are.

Chad Johnson is unstoppable. So he says. He says a lot. He says it loud. You'd think he was on Baltimore. So far, he's backed it up. It's going to take more than a couple 8-8 seasons to make any matter. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is all the more dangerous on the opposite side of the field, but I don't know what kind of meaningful depth they have here or at tight end. If someone shuts Chad's mouth, the face of this offense could sour quickly.

The Bengals run a 4-3 defense with a pretty weak front. That's generally not good. The secondary is solid, but if Cincinnati can't stop the run (26th last season), well, you know how that goes.

Kicker Shayne Graham has some range, but isn't particularly accurate and averaged less than two attempts per game last year. That could be trouble in close games. Punter Kyle Larson is better than average and dumps about a third of his work inside the 20. None of the potential return men, outside of Houshmandzadeh, are much to write home about. We'll just have to wait and see.

The Bengals are going to have to be fast out of the gate. They travel to Cleveland for the season opener and then open at home with visiting Minnesota. Cincinnati rounds out September with a trip to Chicago. They really need to be 2-1 at worst, but 3-0 would be a big help in the long run. If they start 1-2 or worse, it's not going to be pretty.

October has them at home for three of five, facing a challenging Houston squad in Week 4, tough Pittsburgh in Week 7, and a who-knows-what-to-expect Green Bay in Week 8. There are back-to-back road trips to tough Jacksonville and failing Tennessee in Weeks 5 and 6.

The second half of the season starts out with a trip to Baltimore. If Cincinnati is even in any shape to play that game, you will have to wonder if they're just begging to get to their bye in Week 10. Cincy comes off the by to host Indianapolis and Baltimore to end November. December will be no cakewalk with trips to Pittsburgh and Detroit and home matchups with Cleveland and Buffalo. The regular season ends Jan. 1 at Kansas City.

Marvin Lewis came to town with high expectations: a players' coach and a defensive genius. After going 8-8 in his first season (an improvement from the previous regime's 2-14), Lewis followed up with ... 8-8. At least he's consistent. For all his alleged defensive prowess, this team hasn't shown it, and I wonder if players are buying into the program, or if they can even hear the program above Chad Johnson. I think this is a make or break year for Lewis.