AFC West: Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders

Chargers Hold Off Broncos, Chiefs in Tight Race

This is the most evenly matched division in the conference, so you're going to see records closer to .500 -- except for one team. Unlike most other divisions, where most prognosticators are picking the top team or two, I've seen every team in this division picked by any number of people. Not that Oakland has a chance. Two teams made some several moves, and those will pay off. Two others made few or no major moves, apparently happy with the status quo. That will be reflected in the standings.

1. San Diego (10-6) One of the status quo teams, the Chargers will take a 4-game step back, but that should still be enough to win the division. Look at their roster and you understand why few changes are necessary. San Diego's problems are not those of lacking personnel but of a murderous schedule.

The big question, as it seems to be with a lot of AFC teams, is: Is Drew Brees the Real Deal or not? He had a break out season last year, but was it because defensive coordinators didn't expect that level of consistency (as some "experts" have suggested) or because something finally clicked?

Blaming all the opponents' defensive coordinators is pretty lame. I think something clicked. Having the same exact starting team in place, the same system, the same coaches, is just going to further build that consistency.

LaDainian Tomlinson is one of the top running backs in the league. He can kill you on the ground and down the field. He is more responsible for San Diego's success as anyone. He's a Larry Bird/Michael Jordan-type player who makes everyone around him better. Brees/Tomlinson will eventually become one of those legendary pairings, like Montana/Rice.

Antonio Gates is one of the best tight ends in the league too. His abilities make up for an otherwise mediocre receiving corps. Keenan McCardell was a great pickup last year, but he's getting a little long in the tooth, and San Diego is going to need to upgrade this position in the near future.

The offensive line is a tough, solid unit. Unit is the operating word. This is a case where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

Defensively, they should be improved just on experience. Ranked 18th overall last year, the Chargers were third against the run and a horrid 31st against the pass. However, Quentin Jammer is starting to come into his own, and with some additional help off the bench, the secondary should be the most improved unit on the D.

Kicker Nate Kaeding didn't get a lot of work last year, and his work wasn't particularly thrilling. San Diego could lose some chances in close games. Punter Mike Scifres is average, but he does a good job placing kicks inside the 20. Rookie Darren Sproles is expected to return kicks and punts and has shown promise in the preseason.

Marty Schottenheimer really turned this team around, and if the team, fans and front office can be patient for another year or two, he could lead them to the Promised Land.

San Diego is challenged right out of the gate, hosting what is expected to be a revitalized Dallas team in Week 1. It gets progressively worse over the next few weeks as the Chargers travel to Denver, come home to face the Giants, go to New England and home again to host Pittsburgh on Monday Night. A trip to Oakland should be no fun, and the Chargers stay on the road, heading to Philadelphia in Week 7, only then returning home to face Kansas City.

The second half of the season opens with San Diego in New Jersey to meet the Jets and only then do they receive their bye. If the Chargers are in any condition to contend for a playoff spot, the bye is placed perfectly for them to heal a few wounds and charge up for the stretch run.

San Diego hosts Buffalo in what could be an important game for both teams in Week 9, but comes the Chargers chance to make up some ground: trip to Washington, home dates with Oakland and Miami bring them to mid-December and a pair of Saturday dates to end the season, at KC on Christmas Eve and home vs. Denver on New Year's Eve.

2. Denver (9-7) The Broncos have brought in several Cleveland cast-offs to anchor the defensive line in a move that will be viewed historically as either fantastically brilliant or utterly moronic. The entire season rides on the performance of that unit.

Proving that most of the "experts" make a decision and then stick to it through thick and thin regardless of any contrary evidence, Jake Plummer is still the leagues favorite whipping boy. Plummer set a franchise record by throwing for more than 4,000 yards and tied John Elway's career best single-season touchdown total (27). He is known as a good field leader and the Broncos have won more than 70 percent of the games Plummer has started. He's also one of the most mobile standard quarterbacks in the league. But because the defense got crushed in back-to-back playoff appearance both times against Indianapolis, it's all Plummer's fault.

Yes, he also had 20 interceptions last year, and he needs to rein that in. He has that opportunity this year as there have been several important acquisitions on offense. Start with tight end Stephen Alexander, once one of the best in the league with potential to return to that status. Wide receiver Ashley Lelie is developing into a top receiver, with good hands and good speed. Rod Smith remains a primary target.

As usual, Denver is loaded with talent at running back, though I don't see any of the spectacular 1,500-yards backs of the 1990s. Still Tatum Bell, veteran Mike Anderson and Giants acquisition Ron Dayne make a formidable trio.

The Broncos small, fast offensive line remains intact, and that should benefit the running backs and Plummer's mobility.

Defensively, nearly all of the 4-3 schemed defensive line is new with former Browns Courtney Brown, Michael Myers, Gerard Warren and backup Ebenezer Ekuban. They're all "unrealized potential" players who may be judged forever on this season alone. These guys weren't good enough for new Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel, a defensive guru, so you have to wonder.

Ian Gold is a good addition at outside linebacker. The Denver secondary remains intact with John Lynch and Champ Bailey leading the charge.

Kicker Jason Elam is consistently one of the best placekickers in the league. Punter Todd Sauerbrun has a good leg and should benefit from playing home games a Mile High.

Coach Mike Shanahan, once thought to be a genius, will be thought so again, or will become the village idiot.

Five of Denvers first eight games are at home. That's the good news. Obviously, five of eight are on the road in the second half. The Broncos bye falls on Week 9, exactly halfway through the season.

The only other good first-half news is that they open at Miami and host Washington in Week 5. Semi-good news is that they face San Diego (Week 2), Kansas City(3), New England (6) and Philadelphia (8) at home, but those are all tough games. Interspersed are a couple road trips to Jacksonville and New York to face the Giants. No fun in either of those.

The second half sees Denver on the road for all tough games at Oakland (Week 10), Dallas (12), KC (13), Buffalo (15) and San Diego (17). The Broncos host the Jets in Week 11, Baltimore in Week 14 and Oakland in Week 16 (Christmas Eve). No real breaks anywhere.

3. Kansas City (8-8) Finally! A couple guys who can play defense! Remember the devastating Kansas City defenses with Derrick Thomas and Neil Smith? Can you imagine those guys on the team with the league's No. 1 ranked offense? Alas, those heady days are long gone, but the Kansas City defense has finally been partly restocked. Meanwhile, the teams 5th-ranked rushing offense and 4th-ranked passing offense remains intact. Is it enough for a playoff push?

Trent Green is coming off a 4,500-yard season, and his most dangerous weapons remain in place ... well, most of them. The receiving corps is a little short with Eddie Kennison heading the list. Dante Hall remains on the squad, but is nursing a hamstring. The Freddie Mitchell experiment didn't work out -- probably a good thing.

Tight end Tony Gonzalez is back, and that counts for a lot.

More importantly, Priest Holmes and Tony Richardson are back. Holmes is dangerous enough on his own, but with fullback Richardson, the combination is devastating. And that's what has kept KC so successful the last few years.

The offensive line remains intact as well. Good news for Green.

The defensive line returns as well. Ranked 12th against the run last season, that should be good news. They'll get lots of extra help on the outside with newcomers Kendrell Bell from Pittsburgh and rookie Derrick Johnson. That's part of the good news.

The really good news is the arrival of former Dolphin standouts safety Sammy Knight and cornerback Patrick Surtain. This significant upgrade is going to keep more opponents in check, and the Chiefs should be involved in fewer track meets.

Kicker Lawrence Tynes is nothing to write home about, and punter Dustin Colquitt is a rookie with average skills. Returner Dante Hall is frightening if he remains healthy. Scoring on special teams can be a great advantage to KC.

Coach Dick Vermeil is likely in his last season. Good or bad, it's going to be a teary one.

The Chiefs can get off to a great start if they can handle the Jets in the home opener and maintain momentum during trips to Oakland and Denver (Monday Night) in a pair of important division games. KC hosts Philly before a Week 5 bye. The Chiefs round out the first half of the season hosting Washington and hitting the road to meet Miami and San Diego.

There aren't many breaks for KC either in the second half. The Chiefs host Oakland in what should be the easiest of the stretch, followed by trips to Buffalo and Houston, and close out November hosting the Patriots. December is almost a carbon copy, with a home-away-away-home schedule consisting of Denver, Dallas, NYG and San Diego. For good measure, the Chiefs celebrate the New Year at home against Cincinnati.

4. Oakland (2-14) A rolling stone gathers no moss, thus Oakland is not a kinetic rock. Gathering Moss will ultimately be a bad thing for the Raiders, a team that has no need for additional volatility in the locker room. Expect the black and silver to remain stationary sediment and take up extended residence in the AFC West cellar.

Quarterback Kerry Collins is from the Drew Bledsoe mold: strong arm, no mobility, questionable decision-maker. And Collins bread and butter will be the same as Bledsoe's was: Huck the ball downfield and hope someone can get up and grab it or can circle under it like a centerfielder.

Lamont Jordan is a great addition, but he's never been a starter, so time will tell if he can carry the load day in and day out for a whole season.

Moss is a talented loser. He's trouble, and he doesn't care. Jerry Porter may benefit in the long run since he likely will be left more open than in the past as teams double-up on Moss. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they face New England in Week 1 and if Bill Belichick writes the book on "How to Defend Randy Moss," you can guarantee every team will do its best to follow that blueprint.

Defensively, the Raiders did nothing to improve on a squad that was 22nd against the run, 30th against the pass and 30th overall. They're a year older and slower. They have some of the biggest linemen and linebackers in the league, and most teams are just going to run circles around them.

Warren Sapp, formerly a powerhouse, is just a fat loudmouth. Sooner or later, Moss and Sapp will get into it at some point and cause a major distraction.

Oakland's September consists of opening the season at New England, coming home to face KC and then heading to Philadelphia, at which point the season should be just about over. The Raiders host Dallas before a Week 5 bye. October continues with back to back home dates with San Diego and Buffalo. The first half of the season ends with a trip to Tennessee, which may be their first win of the year.

November finds Oakland at KC and home against Denver followed by a couple winnable game at Washington and home vs. Miami. Five games in December are at San Diego and New York (Jets), home against Cleveland, at Denver and home against New York (Giants).