AFC East: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins

Patriots Outlast Bills Down the Stretch

Buffalo is going to take a lead in the division on the basis of a shaky early schedule, but they struggle down the stretch when New England starts to stretch their legs. The N. Y. Jets flirt with .500 all season, and Miami just does almost nothing until midway through the season.

1. New England (13-3) No surprise here. The Patriots are coming off consecutive Super Bowl wins, and there's one thing different about this team from previous back-to-back winners: They enjoy winning. It's not hunger or swagger or any of that other BS you hear from teams with "attitude" of different variation. These guys simply like winning, and they're willing to do whatever is necessary to make that happen.

The loss of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel appeared devastating when they were both evident back in January, but New England's three-headed dog was not Bill Belichick, Crennel and Weis. It's Belichick, Scott Pioli and Robert Kraft (or whichever Kraft has assumed day-to-day operations). Like a predatory chameleon, the Patriots will grow back their coordinator arms or simply redistribute duties to other personnel.

Then there wre the recent losses of linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson. Devastating. Until you remember who you're dealing with. Maybe Marty Beisel and Chad Brown aren't Bruschi and Johnson (yet), but they have already blended into the rest of the defensive scheme, and it appears the ninth ranked defense from last year is on par for a similar performance this season.

The offense should be even better than the seventh ranked squad of last season. (Yeah, that's right. For all the talk about the Pats defense, New England's offense ended up ranked two places higher.) Stronger on the line, faster in the receiving corps, as good in the backfield. Logan Mankins is the reincarnation of John Hannah and Ben Watson could be to Tom Brady everything Ben Coates was and more.

Corey Dillon, who had his first taste of success last year just looks to be having the time of his life. Patrick Pass looks to be coming into his prime, and Kevin Faulk is as dangerous out of the backfield as ever. By the way, if Dillon doesn't have the sweetest stiff-arm ever, I'd like to see who does. Defenders full of hurt and bad feelings look like they hit some kind of alien force field when Dillon sticks out that hand. Either one as a matter of fact.

The receiving corps has gotten a little faster and a little more versatile with the addition of Tim Dwight. If Deion Branch carries over his Super Bowl performance, David Givens maintains his good hands, and Bethel Johnson, Troy Brown, Andre Davis and Dwight contribute, you might not have the two best wideouts in the league, but you have a mighty, mighty corps. Add in Watson, Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria in a few double tight end sets, and defenses are going to be scratching their heads the way opposing offenses have the last four years.

Outside of Bruschi and Johnson, New England has lost nothing on defense. I won't even count Ty Law, because he wasn't there the last 13 weeks. The stitched-together secondary has gelled over the last better part of a year, and there's no reason to believe they can't repeat their performance, especially if they can remain healthy week-to-week. There are virtually no changes up front, so expect what you got last year, only more so.

Adam Vinatieri is still The Man on special teams. His resume speaks for itself. Josh Miller is a serviceable punter and far better than the previous employees. With a wide selection of kick and punt returners and some vicious cover men, the Patriots have one of the better special teams compliments in the league.

The league relishes in giving the Patriots one of the toughest schedules year to year. New England hits the road for This year they start with a "short" week, but thankfully get to host the NFL opener against Oakland on Thursday night. It gets tough quick with trips to NFC contender Carolina in Week 2 and AFC runner-up Pittsburgh in Week 3. Hosting San Diego in Week 4 is no cakewalk, and traveling to Atlanta is Week 5 is no reward either. They remain on the road heading to Denver in Week 6 before receiving what will probably be a much needed bye during Week 7.

I see them at 4-2 coming off the bye when they will host Buffalo and hand the Bills their first defeat of the season. Then it's the game of the season as the Patriots seek to continue Peyton Manning's futility in the northland in Week 9. If they can get through Indy at 6-2, it's fairly clear sailing down the stretch, alternating road and home games the rest of the way. The hapless Dolphins and devastated New Orleans are followed by a potential trip-up at Kansas City. A home win over the Jets puts New York in dire straits and makes them less of a threat in the day-after-Christmas visit three weeks later. In between are a trip to Buffalo and a homer against Tampa. The Pats end the regular season with a New Year's Day celebration at Gillette with Miami in town.

2. Buffalo Bills (10-6) I hate to make one player so important, since I'll downplay individual performances elsewhere, but everything in Buffalo rides on J.P. Losman. Unlike his predecessor, Losman has some mobility, and he'll need it behind a mediocre offensive line that saw little improvement in the offseason. Losman does however possess the tools and beyond being more mobile is also a bit more cerebral than the last signal caller, but he's obviously still inexperienced and prone to making bad decisions. His accuracy has also been called into question, and he'll need to work on that.

Otherwise, he has the bodies to throw to. Eric Moulds is as dangerous as ever, and Lee Evans and Josh Reed are excellent compliments. Rookie Roscoe Parrish should contribute as a wideout and return man. However, unlike past seasons, the Bills have no great tight end to speak of.

Willis McGahee showed his knee is fully healed and had a great season. He's going to have to duplicate the feat to keep defenses honest and give Losman an extra split second or two. Fullback Daimon Shelton is a decent blocker who could help McGahee find daylight.

Buffalo's defense was the glue that kept the offense from peeling off the field. Ranked seventh against the rush, third against the pass and second overall, the defense is going to have to keep games close, and then we'll see if Losman can pull out a few wins. The defensive roster reads like a litany of guys you don't want to meet in a dark alley. Sam Adams, Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay, London Fletcher, Takeo Spikes, Jeff Posey, Nate Clements, Lawyer Milloy, Troy Vincent and Terrance McGee. Soft spots? I think not. If only the offense holds up its end.

The Bills are nothing spectacular on special teams. Rian Lindell is going to have to be consistent, because if Losman struggles in the red zone, Lindell is going to have to have his hip joint oiled. Brian Moorman is an above-average punter with a good net average -- and he can stick them inside the 20.

The Bills have a few tough games up front, but they're at home, and if they can pull those out, they're on their way to the playoffs. They'll have to knock off a hyped Houston squad in the home/season opener and then handle Atlanta in Week 3. Otherwise, trips to Tampa in Week 2 and New Orleans (wherever) in Week 4 shouldn't pose too much of a threat. Back-to-back home dates against Miami and the Jets should send Buffalo to Oakland at 6-0. They should return 7-0 and then they get the rude awakening of a lifetime when they march into Gillette Stadium in Week 8.

The second half has only a few breaks, and it's make-or-break in the next three weeks: Kansas City, San Diego and Carolina. The Chiefs and Jags are home games, which just might be the difference. If Buffalo can knock off Miami on the road, they'll still be in contention when they host New England in Week 14. Denver at home could be a tough one if the Broncs still have something to play for, but road games at Cincinnati and the Jets should be wins as those teams will have been eliminated. Buffalo will have to do more than "show up," but the games are winnable.

3. New York Jets (7-9) Until Chad Penninton proves otherwise, his shoulder and resulting accuracy are an issue. On the other hand, he still has more upside than down.

Question: Can Curtis Martin keep piling up the yards? I love Martin, always have. I thought the worst move the Patriots made in the pre-Brady era was letting Martin get away. New England should have offered the Jets Drew Bledsoe and two other players to keep Martin. Water under the bridge. Martin has been consistent at worst and superior otherwise. He's going for an eleventh straight 1,000-yard season to start a career, and he has an offensive line that can open holes to the Promised Land.

The problem is this: If Pennington shows any lack of ability, teams will start loading up against the run, and that will make lift difficult.

If Pennington can throw and throw quickly and accurately, he has a fantastic corps of receivers beginning with Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins. Must be nice to have Wayne Chrebet as "just another receiver."

I'd almost rather go with Jay Fiedler, who I always thought was underrated and improperly used in Miami by Dave Wannstedt, possibly the worst NFL head coach since Pete Carroll.

I don't know about this defense, despite their rank (No. 7 last year). Lots of changes the last few years, and Ty Law's foot will be yet another question early on. A lot of teams are going to test this secondary.

A pair of rookie kickers (Mike Nugent, K; Ben Graham, P) doesn't sound like the kind of special teams I want to depend on.

Want to know the real weak spot on this team? The coaches. Players love them, they prepare well enough, they coach practice fine. They manage games horribly. How many times can you really mismanage the clock? I mean, high school coaches do better than that. Confusion on the sideline is never good for any team, and the Jets have made it an art form.

The Jets first-half schedule is brutal with road games at KC to open the season, Baltimore in Week 4, followed by Buffalo and Atlanta in Weeks 6 and 7. If not for Miami and Tampa Bay at home in Weeks 2 and 5, the Jets could pack it in before the Week 8 bye. (They also have Jacksonville at home in Week 3. No poesy picking there.) I see the Jets at 3-4 heading to their break.

The only blessing in the second half is that they come off the bye at home against San Diego, because then they travel to Carolina and Denver, which should put an end to hopes of making the playoffs. Why? Because they still have two games with New England going down the stretch, at Gillette in Week 13 and the day-after-Christmas game. They finish the season hosting Buffalo, who is going to want to win that one badly. The Jets will have a couple chances with home dates against New Orleans (Week 12) and Oakland (14) and a travel game in Miami (15). The wild card will be a long forgone conclusion by then.

4. Miami Dolphins (4-12) Ricky don't lose that number. Oh, never mind. You lost it. And then you lost about 40 pounds of which you gained back maybe 15. You're not, you're just simply not going to see this guy blasting through lines, running people over, getting all bad with himself. Williams may evolve into more of a finesse runner, but don't count on it. I don't think there's a lot of evolution potential there.

Good thing the Dolphins drafted Ronnie Brown, but I'd shelter him away somewhere for this season so he doesn't get killed. You see, opposing defenses are going to be stacking the box because for the first time in a Galapagos turtle's age, Miami doesn't have a quarterback! OK, OK, they have a couple guys who play the position of quarterback, but ... Gus Frerotte? A guy who headbutts support structures? That's your starting quarterback? And A.J. Feeley is your backup?

I don't care who is running routes, and it's a pretty nifty set of receivers. Frerotte and Feeley could barely hit the water if they were in a boat in the middle of the ocean. The offensive line is nothing to write home about, so Frerotte and Feeley are pretty much going to be running for their lives.

Unfortunately, that will be the case for Brown too, at first. Williams has to serve his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

The Dolphins might have a pretty decent defense, but you won't know it because they'll all be fighting for the oxygen machine between series. Even if they succeed in getting the ball back to their offense, there's not going to be a lot of time to rest. To make matters worse, Miami is switching to a 3-4, which is going to disrupt the only stable portion of the team. I couldn't find the NFL record for time of possession. It's probably around 22-23 minutes. Look for Miami to challenge that.

Kicker Olindo Mare and punter Matt Turk are among the games best. And they're going to be busy.

Nick Saban got here 2, maybe 3 years late.

Miami opens with three tough dates (Denver, at Jets, Carolina), probably all loses, before an early bye week that help them not at all. I have them 0-6 before they finally break the goose egg "at" New Orleans, and only because the Saints are going to have the worst year of any franchise in a long time. Neither you, I, nor the Dolphins want to consider the rest of the schedule, so we'll end it here.