Game Preview: Week 3: Pats @ Pittsburgh

Out of the frying pan, into the fire. If last week was a test, this week is a final exam. Every player is going to have to play the best game of his life. It's the most important game in the history of the NFL.

OK, that's enough cliché and hyperbole for another million years.

Yes, it's a big game, a conference game, but winning or losing this one isn't the end of the world. Worst case scenario, the Pats lose their second in a row, endures a couple more injuries, and generally take a good beating. They've been there before, a couple early season losses, the defensive secondary already depleted. Maybe this game decides home field advantage for the AFC Championship game (long way to go before then), maybe it's the difference between a first round bye and playing in the wild card round. Maybe they need to convert a wide receiver to a defensive back and start signing "hacks" off the street.

Been there, done that. In the past, the Patriots have survived, persevered and later thrived. You can't get all worked up over one game. Bill Belichick doesn't. Did you hear him in his regular Wednesday press conference?

''I don't care what happened last week, last year, last month, what the overall record between the two teams was going back to 1947 or whenever they started playing each other, who wins at home, who wins when the wind is blowing from the north and all of that," Belichick said. "You guys have all of those stats. Do whatever you want with them. I'll tell you what I'd do with them."

Now, I shouldn't have to remind you that Bill Belichick is a history buff in general and a rabid pro football historian. History does mean something, and those stats aren't completely irrelevant. Otherwise, there'd be no point watching --studying ... meticulously -- all those game films, drilling his coaches and his coaches drilling the team. Really. Do you think he picked 1947 out of thin air? **

The Boston sports media disappoints me. Someone should have asked him "what [he'd] do with them."

Anyway, the Patriots have plenty of issues to work on from last week. Special teams kick coverage, offensive line penalties, penalties in general, offensive line play in general, the running game, the passing game. Just about everything, except maybe defensive line play. Perhaps the area of greatest concern is the defensive secondary where half of the 10 team members (cornerbacks Randall Gay (ankle), Tyrone Poole (ankle), Chad Scott (shoulder), and Duane Starks (thigh), and safety James Sanders (ankle)) are listed as questionable or probable on this week's injury report.

There have been no reports of Brown practicing with the secondary, so don't expect to see him out there this week. However, "I'm always ready," he said. His returned presence may come soon enough. For now, Rodney Harrison believes the current troops can hold down the fort. (More clichés.)

I know what you're thinking: "But Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 15-0 in regular season games and he has a 153.6 quarterback rating in two games already this season with four touchdowns and no interceptions." He also is last in the league among starters with only 32 attempts and tied for last with non-throwing quarterback Michael Vick and Eli Manning with 23 completions. He's not throwing a lot, and if he's forced to, like he was in last year's AFC championship -- which is ancient history and means nothing -- he tends to make a few more mistakes.

So the question is: How do you put Roethlisberger (who happens to be listed as "probable (back)" on the injury report) in such a position?

There's only one answer: Stop the running game.

Easier said than done. Pittsburgh's Willie Parker leads the league in rushing with 272 yards in two games. On the other hand, even Antwain Smith could have strolled through the defensive fronts of Tennessee and Houston, the two teams Pittsburgh has beaten. Unless Parker goes down with a serious injury, even if he's utterly ineffective, it's unlikely the Pat will see Duce Staley (questionable, knee) or Jerome Bettis (doubtful, calf). That said, the Patriots, likely to stay in their 4-3 defense for another week, have their work cut out for them against a large and efficient Steeler offensive line.

On the other side, while Pittsburgh again has the league's No.1 rushing offense, the Patriots are floundering at 29th with just a 56.0 yard per game average. Corey Dillon is off to a horrible start, and he's obviously frustrated. The Steelers are ranked just 17th against the run, allowing an average of 105.0 -- but it's just two games, hard to draw a trend from that. Pittsburgh's defense has hardly been tested, and their 3-4 is susceptible to leaving holes. They have a solid starting linebacking corps, and their defensive backs are nothing to sneeze at, but it's distinctly possible the Patriots could do some damage on the ground. If New England can get Dillon going early, Dillon can get New England going.

That would open up the game for Tom Brady and New England's 5th-ranked passing offense (Thanks, Oakland.). Pittsburgh's passing defense against Steve McNair and David Carr is ranked 3rd, allowing just over 150 yards per game. How good will it be against a team that can run the ball? Pats fans hope to find out.

Then there's the special teams. New England has made far too many mistakes and the units do not resemble the dazzling play-making squads of a few years ago. If you want to point to a place where the loss of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel is exposed, surprising it's special teams. Belichick may have to do some juggling to make sure these players are getting the attention they need. After two weeks of subpar performances, you can make your guesses.

Oh, right. History means nothing, but if you happened to forget, Pittsburgh broke New England's NFL record 21-game winning streak last Halloween, 34-20; the Patriots became the first team to beat Roethlisberger (still his only loss) and demolished the Steelers, 41-27, on Jan. 23 in Pittsburgh to win the AFC Championship. I'm sure neither you nor any player, coach, commentator, analyst, writer or broadcaster remembers or cares what happened last year.

Notes: The Patriots streak of 35 games without back-to-back losses, the longest active such streak in the league, is certainly on the line. The record is a distant 60. ... New England has won four of the last five meetings, including the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championships. ... Locally, this week's game will be broadcast on CBS, Channel 4 @ 4:15 pm with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, and Bonnie Bernstein on the sideline. ... You can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.

Prediction: Steelers, 24-21.

** Actually, the Steelers lost twice to the combined Boston/Brooklyn Yanks/Tigers in 1945, beat the Boston Yanks twice in 1946 and 1947, and split a pair in 1948. Thanks to pro-football-reference.com.