Sunday, September 18, 2005

Week 2 Picks

Week 2 in the NFL finds most teams a little closer to their true identities. Some teams are still searching, and for teams with high expectations, identity issues can develop into big problems. There's one thing you can count on in Week 2 in the NFL, while it will be almost as unpredictable, it's just not as exciting as opening week.

Thus, here are the picks:

Baltimore at Tennessee, 1 p..m.: Baltimore drove up and down the field, but couldn't get in the end zone until the last 18 seconds against what looked like a much improved Indianapolis defense. Tennessee got pummeled by Pittsburgh. Baltimore didn't give up anything outrageous to Indy, thought it's not the Raven defense of several years ago. Tennessee got pummeled by Pittsburgh. Baltimore has a bye next week and can play with absolute reckless abandon. Tennessee will be at St. Louis next week, getting used to their cellar-dwelling. Baltimore finds the end zone early. Anthony Wright looks like a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Looks like. Ravens: 38-10.

Buffalo at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.: J.P. Losman crossed hurdle number one with no much problem. Hurdle No. 2: Eric Moulds has a tweaked ankle. Let's see how Losman deals with a slightly different kind of adversity. Tampa Bay pulled off a minor upset beating Minnesota in Week 1. These teams haven't faced each other since Nov. 2000. Tampa plays pretty well at home, but this team hasn't had an identity since they won the Super Bowl, what seems like a million years ago. Buffalo is getting used to its new identity and will like what it sees if it comes out with a win. Bills: 17-10.

Detroit at Chicago, 1 p.m.: Another visitor with a growing sense of self against another home team that doesn't know who it is. Detroit has won the last four matchups between these two, but they always play pretty close, usually within a field goal, almost always within a touchdown. Home field doesn't seem to know much anymore. One big difference here is that Steve Mariucci is a very good coach, and Lovie Smith isn't. Another is that Joey Harrington is a pretty good quarterback, and Kyle Orton isn't. The Redskins -- the Redskins! -- had a 10-minute advantage in time of possession over Chicago last week. The Redskins! Detroit is off next week, so they can go all out too. Lions: 31-12.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.: Jacksonville was the only team to beat Indy home in the dome last season. The teams are 2-2 against each other over the last two years. Jack Del Rio has simply outcoached Tony Dungy, which (more than defense) seems to be holding back the Colts. Byron Leftwich has dismantled the Indy defense in their last two meetings, but the Indianapolis defense looked pretty good last week. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison need 59 yards to pass Buffalo's Jim Kelly and Andre Reed as the all-time top QB-WR combo. Jacksonville can win if they win the turnover battle. Colts: 31-27.

Minnesota at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.: Minnesota is already desperate for a win. The loss of Randy Moss is starting to loom large in a developing identity crisis. Dante Culpepper has to exert his will on his team and get them going. Cincinnati looked pretty good on the road at Cleveland. Minnesota needs to control their turnovers, which they haven't done well in their late season swoons the last couple years. They can't afford that this early in the season. Bengals: 27-24.

New England at Carolina, 1 p.m.: Is Carolina reeling of seething following their season opening loss to sitting duck New Orleans? Is New England looking ahead to next weeks major matchup with Pittsburgh? Can Carolina duo Stephen Davis and Deshawn Foster take advantage of a soft center of the New England defense, still looking for an identity following the losses of Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson? Will the injuries to New England's defense give Carolina the openings it needs? Does Bill Belichick ever lose after having more than a standard week preparing for his next opponent? On "Hurricane Relief Weekend," will anyone mention that the Carolinas got hit with a hurricane a couple days ago? Will any stadium or pregame/postgame show play "Rock You Like a Hurricane"? Patriots: 21-17.

Pittsburgh at Houston, 1 p.m.: Don't expect Houston to be as pathetic as they were against Buffalo last week. All eyes will be on Ben Roethlisberger to see if he's the same guy who has led Pittsburgh to a 15-game regular-season winning streak (three short of Patriots' recent record), or if he's due for his sophomore slump. Pittsburgh might also be looking ahead to their home date with the aforementioned Patriots next week. Houston is off next week and is trying to save themselves from an early date with the basement. Houston's weak offensive line needs to protect David Carr and open some running lanes. Steelers: 31-10.

San Francisco at Philadelphia, 1 p.m.: Donovan McNabb is listed as questionable, but apparently will play this weekend. Ditto for San Francisco. Philadephia: 27-20.

Atlanta at Seattle, 4:05 p.m.: Seattle played awfully last week with five turnovers. Double cover Algae Crumpler and the defense should do well. Atlanta faces another top NFC team. A win could make them a prohibitive first-round bye selection. Seattle has won last 3 games against Atlanta. Falcons: 24-21.

St. Louis at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.: St. Louis has won last five of six vs. Arizona. Both teams lost last week: St. Louis came back late to fall short against San Francisco, Arizona was knocked around by the Giants. St. Louis is treading water the last few seasons. I just don't see that vast improvement in Arizona that everyone else sees. St. Louis: 35-17.

Cleveland at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m.: Both of these teams lost last week too. Romeo Crennel is trying to make Cleveland believe in its future identity. Green Bay is getting ready to say goodbye to an aging identity. Neither team can afford to start 0-2. Green Bay seems to have lost it Tundra advantage. That's what happens when you renovate or replace a venerable arena (see Boston Garden). Packers: 17-14.

Miami at N.Y. Jets, 4:15 p.m.: Gus Frerotte looked like a quarterbacking god last week against what was expected to be a solid Denver defense. Chad Pennington fell flat against a much improved Kansas City defense on the road. His shoulder certainly didn't look ready for prime time. He'll need Curtis Martin to have a few big games early on, but that's going to be a very tall order considering just about everyone know who has the ball. While New York has won 11 of the last 14 meetings, Miami has a legitimate shot to start 2-0, and New York has a legitimate chance to see the season slip away early. Herman Edwards chair gets a little warmer. Jets: 21-20.

San Diego at Denver, 4:15 p.m.: San Diego lost a heartbreaker at Dallas last week. Denver got crushed by Miami. Denver's Mike Shanahan has beaten Marty Schottenheimer more often than not. Both teams have big games in prime time next week. KC is at Denver on Monday Night. San Diego hosts the Giants on Sunday Night. Wait a minute. What about this week? Shanahan's squad looks in the mirror and doesn't know who they see. They could be in big trouble. Schottenheimer's boys know who they are: The AFC West defending champs. San Diego: 34-31.

Kansas City at Oakland, 8:30 p.m.: Talk about identities. KC is starting to look mid-90s kinda scary. Oakland thinks Randy Moss ... hmmm ... I don't know what they're thinking. As a predicted, Belichick wrote the book "How to Defend Randy Moss." If KC did their reading, they should be all set. Kansas City has won the last four meetings, but Oakland has won its last seven home openers. Chiefs: 42-10.

Monday Night
New Orleans at N.Y. Giants, 7:30 p.m.: I refuse to list this game "New York at New Orleans". It's ludicrous to even suggest it. The Giants are at home. New York has won three of the last four between these two. While I predicted New Orleans wouldn't win a game this season and that they had no chance against Carolina last week, no one was happier than I that they ruined my predictions. I hope the Saints massacre these guys. Giants: 24-17.

Washington at Dallas, 9 p.m.: Washington barely beat a horrible visiting Chicago team, despite dominating the clock last week. Dallas earned an emotional win against an excellent squad in San Diego. Dallas returns home to experience another emotional high and induct Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin into the Cowboys' Ring of Honor. Julius Jones gives Drew Bledsoe that one weapon he always so desperately needs, but he's still going to get sacked. I like Joe Gibbs, but the highlight of the season may have been Washington's defensive stand in the fourth quarter last week. Cowboys: 31-13.

Last week: 8-8
Season: 8-8

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