Game Preview: Week 6, Patriots @ Denver

If you told me the Patriots would be 3-2 at this point in the schedule, I would have agreed. In my preseason analysis of these here New England Patriots, except that outside of the first game blowout of the Raiders, I had picked the next four games wrong. But, being 2 wins and 2 losses anyway left me at the same point.

Now comes one more monumental challenge before the desperately needed bye week.

Denver (4-1) leads the AFC West, what passes for this season's powerhouse division, by two games over Kansas City (2-2) and San Diego (2-3) . Despite the surprise of many "experts," this could be the Broncos year. They're led by a solid one-two punch of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson, who combined have amassed just under 600 yards.

The Patriots run defense, despite a couple good efforts against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, has been suspect since the preseason. While you may have done a pretty good job to erase if from your memory, the fact remains San Diego ran roughshod over New England at Gillette Stadium just two weeks ago. On the other hand, Bill Belichick would consider that ancient history.

But it would definitely be a mistake to ignore Denver's recent roll. Quarterback Jake Plummer has been far more consistent and careful with the ball. Unlike last year when he threw for over 4,000 yards, he's barely on a pace to hit 3,000 this year. His patience has increase, and the result is Plummer is living up to the potential he's always shown.

Plummer certainly has weapons with wide receivers Rod Smith (28 receptions, 309 yards, 1 TD), Ashley Lelie (11, 113, 1) and Charlie Adams (10, 109). Tight ends Stephen Alexander, one of the best in the game, and Jeb Putzier have contributed nearly 20 catches together, and Anderson is also a threat out of the backfield with eight catches this season. Plummer, perhaps vastly overrated earlier in his career is now vastly underrated. Don't expect Belichick to make that mistake.

The offensive line has always been one of the better and most feared corps in the league with all their cut blocks and the like.

That in mind, the Patriots defense is going to have its work cut out (no pun intended) for them. That's especially because defensive lineman Richard Seymour was downgraded from "questionable" to "out" on Saturday. Also out Sunday are safety Guss Scott, cornerback Tyrone Poole, defensive lineman Marquise Hill and receiver Troy Brown.

The offenses are inverse images of each other. The Broncos have the No. 2 running attack in the NFL with 148.4 yards per game, while the Patriots are 24th with 81.0 (There's eight teams worse than that?). Meanwhile, New England is fourth in the league in passing (294.8 ypg) and Denver is 26th (164.4 ypg). Overall, the Patriots are fifth, while the Broncs are 21st.

The defenses are a bit more like warped mirror images. Denver is an impressive fifth against the run, allowing just 88.2 ypg. Not good news for a struggling New England running game, especially one that now sports a couple possibly significant injuries. New England is 20th, allowing 114.8 ypg. Not good news due to Denver's offensive ranking. Passing is a little more even with Denver ranked 25th (234.2 ypg) and the Patriots 22nd (222.8 ypg). Overall, Denver 18th, New England 23rd.

Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey is questionable, held out against Jacksonville two weeks ago, he played last week in a slim win over Washington. It might be an area Belichick and Tom Brady look to exploit.

Performance of the New England defensive secondary has, understandably, been largely dismal. Linebacker Mike Vrabel leads New England in interceptions. With one. One. Through five games, the Patriots have one interception. (Sorry, Vince Wilfork).

The Pats have been plagued by un-Belichick-like numbers such as penalties, red-zone defense, and turnover ratio. New England will have to improve in these areas if they expect to compete down the stretch.

Mile High (I'm not calling it that "other" name), like Green Bay's Lambeau Field and the Patriots' Gillette Stadium, remains one of the few places visiting teams cringe when they seem them on the schedule. Sunday's weather may be more conducive to baseball than to football. Light breezes with a game-time (4:15 pm) temperature around 70 degrees. It should cool off during the course of the game, but nothing drastic.

Notes:

The schedule gets a little easier following the bye week with struggling Buffalo on Oct. 30 followed by the toughest game remaining on the schedule, Indianapolis on Nov. 7. Hey, both of those games are at home! New England alternates away and home games the rest of the way after that.

The Halloween Eve game against Buffalo will be the Patriots first division game of the season. I guess the NFL schedulers were hoping to at least keep the division close to that point. Other big non-division games beyond the horizon: New Orleans at Gillette on Nov. 20, at Kansas City the following week, and home against Tampa Bay on Dec. 17. That's it. Take care of business within the division, and at minimum you get a home playoff game.

It's a long road from here to there.

You know what's funny? It's funny when throughout New England's first Super Bowl run of the current dynasty "people" were saying, "They're winning because of the defense," "The offensive line came together to play better than when they played for Bledsoe because they had to protect the young kid," "Brady has a lot more weapons than Bledsoe had or other teams have [I never understood that one]," etc., etc., etc.

Now I'm reading Vic Carucci's "Burning Questions" on NFL.com, and he says, "...there comes a point when you can't help but have doubts about the Patriots' ability to continue to succeed with such a one-dimensional (Tom Brady's throwing arm) offense."

We've gone from the Brady being a lucky nobody who couldn't carry Bledsoe's jock to the two-time defending Super Bowl champions relying solely on his arm. In three years.

Now that's funny.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos at Denver, Colorado.
Locally, this week's game will be broadcast on CBS, Channel 4 @ 4:15 pm with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, and Bonnie Bernstein on the sideline. ... You can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.