Game Preview: Week 13, Patriots vs. New York Jets

I might not show it enough, but I hate cliches. I try to avoid them, but I have to use one regarding this week's game at Gillette Stadium: It's just what the doctor ordered.

The NFL is headed into the twilight of the season, and, despite New England coach Bill Belichick's desire to take it one game at a time, and despite his denials, even he has long-term goals and plans, and that includes the playoffs. That makes this week's visit by the New York Jets important on several levels.

First, the New England Patriots are 6-5 (only 3-2 at home), and though they lead the AFC East, the grip is tenuous. The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are both 4-7, and they're playing each other this week. That means, barring a tie, one of them is going to win, and if by some circumstance the Patriots should lose, that would leave one of those teams only a game back of New England.

Enter the New York Jets. They're 2-9, 0-6 on the road and on a six-game losing streak. The Jets are almost as plagued by injuries as the Patriots have been, and they're certainly the best thing the Patriots could hope for this week. Belichick will probably tell you that the Jets, like a cornered, injured animal, is desperate and dangerous. I disagree.

And that leads to our second level on which the Jets visit is important.

With several Patriots recovering and returning from injuries, the Jets are the perfect team to cut teeth on (Sometimes, cliches just sneak up on me.). Corey Dillon is expected to play, and Kevin Faulk is a game-time decision. Heath Evans, who has helped New England survive the last few weeks, is banged up with a shoulder injury. The Jets ranked 30th in running defense, allowing 136.9 yards per game. Not only should that allow New England running room, a chance to establish a ground game, and open up the passing, but it should help keep the running backs healthy, while giving them opportunity to get in some reps. In a perfect world, the one we lived in last year, that's how it's supposed to work.

The Jets are fourth against the pass, allowing a meager 173.5 ypg in the air. That may be more a function of their lousy run defense than a tribute to their pass rush and defensive backs. Overall defensively, the Jets are ranked 11th. Yet they've given up 248 points. That may look good compared to the Pats 279 points allowed and 31st ranked defense, but a look at strength of opponents explains that away.

Of course, when you look at points allowed, you also want to look at points scored. Yes, New England has allowed 279, but they've scored 243. Not impressive, but we know the Pats got pounded by San Diego and Indianapolis, skewing the numbers a bit. Still, that looks a lot better than the Jets 140 points scored. 140! Finally, a team the Patriots should be able to contain, and gain some defensive confidence.

For the first time in many weeks, there are no defensive linemen on the injury report. Now we should see that team work together as a unit. Against an inferior opponent, it might not mean much, but what we're looking for here is improvement and cohesiveness, something to build on. The linebackers have only Willie McGinest listed on the injury report, and he with just a finger issue. He saw limited action against Kansas City last week, so there's no reason to expect he's sitting against the Jets.

The only place where there are still major problems is in the defensive secondary. For the most part, those problems can't be fixed. There are seven defensive backs on injured reserve (in case you hadn't heard), including Rodney Harrison, and those guys simply aren't coming back. The plan will be to maintain health on the line and in the linebacking corps, and improve the pass rush to the point where the weaknesses in the secondary are less exposed. We should see at least shades of that plan Sunday.

In a normal Pats-Jets matchup, which this most definitely is not, New England would have to worry about Curtis Martin, his running, and the play-action pass. With Brooks Bollinger at quarterback for the Jets, the Patriots have to worry about none of that. The main job will be to stop Martin, or whatever running back is playing. If the Jets run the play-action, they probably won't cause too much damage. So, with the running attack stymied, on obvious passing downs, the Pats can simply tee off on Bollinger, who has just over 700 yards in six games. Even the Patriots secondary should be able to cover Jets receivers when Bollinger is under pressure.

On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady should have a field day. New York only has 18 sacks, and John Abraham has 5.5 of those. (The Pats and Jets are tied for 30th in sacks, but the Jets haven't had the D-line injuries New England has.) Nick Kaczur and Logan Mankins have done an unbelievable job against the other great right D tackles in the league. With some protection -- including some help from whoever keeps letting in the back-side blitzer -- Brady should be able to find open receivers.

The Jets do rank fairly high in interceptions with 13 (tied for 9th), led by old friend Ty Law (his first game against New England). But, as we all know, Brady always comes back with a fantastic game after a horrible game. Brady was awful with a career-tying four picks last week at Kansas City. And, as we've mentioned a bazillion times, Brady has yet to lose back-to-back games, making this an "automatic win." Of course, the last team to hand New England a loss following a previous week's loss was none other than the New York Jets.

The outcome of the game, while obviously important, is nearly a foregone conclusion. The Jets are reeling and can hardly score to save their lives. The Patriots, still banged up but on top of the division, are improving with an injury list that is thankfully getting shorter. Beyond the win/loss column, this game is important for the Patriots for them to regain some of their old form heading down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Prediction: Patriots, 34-12.

As WEEI's Dale Arnold says, "You can see the game right here on CBS 4." I don't know why he says that, because (a) He's on the radio, and (b) WEEI has no relation to Channel 4 that I know of. Anyway, the game is on Channel 4 @ 4:15 pm with play-by-play announcer Kevin Harlan and analyst Randy Cross. No idea who, if anyone, is on the sideline. ... As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.