Week 12 Picks Review

Pardon the length of the "review" this week. I include the preview so you can see what I expected before the games -- at least the games that I didn't just ramble off-topic. The picks and results are bolded, so that can help you pick your way through if you're not interested in the other stuff.

Any questions?

Sunday, Nov. 27
Baltimore (3-7) at Cincinnati (7-3), 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore stole a game from a floundering Pittsburgh team, and Cincinnati lost to nearly unbeatable Indy. Evidently, Baltimore realized they're only role is that of spoiler, and they got off to a good start there by knocking off Pitt. Can they do the same to Cincy? I doubt it. Running back Jamal Lewis really is a piece of garbage, and he's about to lose his job. He'll probably just go back to running drugs instead of footballs. Quarterback Kyle Boller is nursing a back injury, so you can imagine how ineffective he'll be, considering how ineffective he is as usual. The defense is still missing linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed. Cincinnati is going to be looking to take out last week's frustration on someone, and the home town crowd is going to be there urging them on. As oft is the case in the NFL, last week is not this week.
Prediction: Bengals, 31-9.
Result: Bengals, 42-29.
Cincinnati streaked out to a huge lead before letting Baltimore to score a bunch of meaningless late-game points. I still would have like to see Cincinnati shut them down like a champion would, but maybe they're not ready for that status.

Carolina (7-3) at Buffalo (4-6), 1:00 p.m.
Both teams are coming off humiliating defeats from last week. Carolina lost 13-3, but it was to Chicago, and while the Windy City team has been a surprise this season, that certainly doesn't make Carolina feel better. Buffalo was pummeled by San Diego. But Buffalo is at home, where they play far better (4-1 home, 0-5 road), and they have few injuries to speak of. Carolina is OK on the road (4-1 home, 3-2 road), but this is Buffalo, and it's getting cold. Running backs Deshawn Foster and Stephen Davis are banged up, and that could impact the game plan. Buffalo quarterback J.P. Losman has yet to show the ability to win an important game. Buffalo is 3-0 against Carolina all-time.
Prediction: Panthers, 21-16.
Result: Panthers, 13-9.
Losman still hasn't won an important game. Foster and Davis combined for 99 yards, while the Panthers held Willis McGahee to 53. Pretty straightforward, just like we expected.

Chicago (7-3) at Tampa Bay (7-3), 1:00 p.m.
Both of these teams are 7-3 and in first place in their respective divisions. There must be a conspiracy. Chicago has the best points-against defense in the league with a mind-boggling 110 after 10 games (easy math). They're also 7th against the run and 2nd against the pass, making them first overall in yards allowed, too. Tampa isn't too shabby. They're 3rd overall in yards allowed. Neither team has any significant injuries. Both teams have one home loss and two road losses. Chicago usually scores just enough to win. Tampa has lost big a couple times, keeping them out of the points-allowed race. It comes down to who makes the most mistakes. Tampa gets the edge on home-field advantage.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 16-13.
Result: Bears, 13-10.
Same here, except I have the wrong winner. Chicago again scored just enough to win while keeping the game very low scoring. They also took advantage of Tampa's one big mistake, forcing a Chris Simms fumble at the Bucs 1-yard line, turning it into 7 points. Not a lot of people effervescing about Simms this week. Strange, huh?

Cleveland (4-6) at Minnesota (5-5), 1:00 p.m.
Cleveland is coming of a stunning 22-0 domination over Miami. Minnesota squeezed by Green Bay on Monday Night, leaving them with a short week. Cleveland is 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 3-1 at home. Quarterback Brad Johnson has gone 3-0 since the demise of Dante Culpepper. If -> IF <- Cleveland plays like they did last week, they have a chance. Reuben Droughns needs to have a huge day. Give the turf advantage to the home team. I don't think I've picked a Minnesota game correctly all season. Prediction: Vikings, 31-17.
Result: Vikings, 24-12.
I finally got a Vikings game right. Brad Johnson is actually 4-0. I don't think that's parity, but I don't know what it is. Turnovers were the story here too. A pair of them led to two of Marcus Robinson's three touchdown receptions. Droughns had 73 yards on 19 carries, but only five of those came in the second half. I don't know why Cleveland abandoned the run so early.

New England at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
Read the stand-alone game preview. Thanks.
Prediction: Patriots, 28-27.
Result: Chiefs, 26-16.
We don't need to rehash this either. I half expected this kind of result, but somewhere in the middle of writing the game preview, I convinced myself otherwise.

San Diego (6-4) at Washington (5-5), 1:00 p.m.
San Diego, again, is coming off a pummeling of Buffalo. Washington is floundering again after a home loss to Oakland. Two teams headed in opposite directions. Both teams need a win to keep pace in their respective divisions. One team has a wicked uphill battle after today. Both teams have their share of bruises. Washington is 4-1 at home. San Diego is 3-2 on the road. Can Washington stop a steamrolling San Diego offense?
Prediction: Chargers, 34-27.
Result: Chargers, 23-17 (OT).
Let this show once and for all that you have to give LaDanian Tomlinson only about 2 inches of space and he's going to make you pay. A 32-yard Tomlinson run late in the fourth quarter tied the game, and a 41-yarder in OT sealed the deal. He had 184 yards rushing and 29 receiving. Washington had game in hand, having picked off Drew Brees three times. But that's the difference between a San Diego and a runner up. Washington's third straight blown lead, second straight at home, pretty much nixes their playoff chances. They were looking like they had a shot at the division title for a while.

San Francisco (2-8) at Tennessee (2-8), 1:00 p.m.
San Francisco is 0-4 on the road with 2 wins at home. Tennessee is 1-4 home and away. Meaning, if anyone can lose at home, it's Tennessee. But if anyone can't win on the road, it's Frisco. Really. Who cares? San Fran takes the NFC lead in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Prediction: Titans, 28-19.
Result: Titans, 33-22.
"That is reminiscent of the old Steve [McNair]," Titans coach Jeff Fisher said. "It was good to see." Ya. Too bad it wasn't reminiscent of the old 49ers. Then it might have meant something. For the record, McNair had 343 passing yards and three touchdowns -- in the third quarter. I wonder if Fisher's chair is getting warmer. Can't you see Steve Mariucci in Nashville?

St. Louis (4-6) at Houston (1-9), 1:00 p.m.
Speaking of the Reggie Bush sweepstakes. San Fran could still end up with Bush because Houston doesn't necessarily need a running back. Houston's one win is at home, and St. Louis is 1-4 on the road. Houston is 31th in overall offense, and 30st in defense. The Rams are 29th in defense, BUT they're 5th in offense. There's your difference in this one. I don't know what happened to Houston after a couple years of improvement. Total collapse. Probably won't end today.
Prediction: Rams, 38-12.
Result: Rams, 33-27 (OT).
How about St. Louis? St. Louis is near Nashville. (Near enough.) Houston was pounding the Rams until a late comeback, yada, yada, yada. The fact that Houston was pounding St. Louis means the Rams stink. The fact that Houston let them back in the game means the Texans stink. Can you believe the paid attendance at this game was announced to be 70,010? Neither can I, Billy. Neither can I.

Jacksonville (7-3) at Arizona (3-7), 4:05 p.m.
Arizona doesn't even have a winning record at home (2-3), and Jacksonville has a winning road record (3-2). Don't talk to be about Kurt Warner or Arizona's third-ranked passing offense. They can't run the ball (70.1 ypg, 32nd). Jacksonville has a good, balanced offense and the No. 1 ranked defense against the pass, allowing just 159.9 yards per game, and that's not because they're run defense is horrible (like other teams with good passing defenses).
Prediction: Jaguars, 24-13.
Result: Jaguars, 24-17.
Everything would have gone as planned had not Byron Leftwich broken his ankle on the first play of the game. As it turned out, Jacksonville did great running the ball against a horrid, horrid defense. They better hope that running attack can carry them for at least a month, and that's not likely. Amazing how fortunate Indianapolis is. The Jags were one of the few remaining tests on the Indy schedule (in two weeks). Were.

Miami (3-7) at Oakland (4-6), 4:05 p.m.
Miami linebacker Zack Thomas is out for this game. Oakland defensive tackle Warren Sapp has been placed on injured reserve (career over?). This game is irrelevant in so many ways. Oakland probably thinks they still have a chance, so they'll probably come to play. Miami coach Nick Saban is starting to use the rest of the season to evaluate players for next year, so while he will try to win, he knows his team is out of it, and he's going to do what needs to be done for the future.
Prediction: Raiders, 31-13.
Result: Dolphins, 33-21.
Just when you thought Miami was going to quit on Saban, Oakland quits on Norv Turner. It's what they call the Moss Factor. Miami still has a way outside shot at the AFC East, but that Week 17 game New Year's Day in Foxboro is might daunting. Oakland pretty much put themselves out of it. Oakland's offensive line, formerly the best unit on the team, folded like a deck of cards in front of Jason Taylor and Vonnie Holiday (3 sacks each, one for a safety).

Green Bay (2-8) at Philadelphia (4-6), 4:15 p.m.
This has been a bizarre season for both teams. You can throw out the stats and everything else you know about these two teams. Philly is against the ropes, and both teams are out of the playoffs. (OK, Philly is probably mathematically still in it, but let's dabble in reality for a while.) I don't know how you predict a game like this. You take a sneaker company's advice: Just do it.
Prediction: Packers, 17-14.
Result: Eagles, 19-14.
Oh, Bretty Boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling. They're saying "Retire, Brett. Retire." This was Favre's last chance to make something of the season. Take down the wounded buffalo. Or eagle. Whatever, they're both endangered species. Both teams ran for more yards than Philly quarterback Mike McMahon threw. Green Bay is now assured of its first losing season since Favre became the starter, 13 years ago. Sad, sad.

N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Seattle (8-2), 4:15 p.m.
The 4 o' clock game of the week. New York needed two 4th-quarter touchdowns to barely squeeze by Philadelphia (27-17) in the Meadowlands last week. Seattle gave up 13 late points to edge San Francisco in the Bay City, 27-25. Both teams are great at home, Seattle moreso (5-0). New York is 2-2 on the road. Seattle has the NFC West wrapped up, but they want to ensure home-field advantage for the playoffs. New York is still battling for the NFC East division lead. Eveyone is talking about Eli Manning, but Matt Hasselbeck is no slouch, and I'll take Shawn Alexander over Tiki Barber any day of the week. Seattle still has the best offense in the league, and their defense is pretty darn good too. New York's offense is okay and getting better, and their defense is solid too. The numbers give Seattle an edge, and so does home field.
Prediction: Seahawks, 31-21.
Result: Seahawks, 24-21 (OT).
The officials give and give and give, and New York shows no appreciation whatsoever. You'd think that with the extra home game, and every close call in any given game, the Giants would just be beating up on bad teams and strutting by good teams. Some people saw this game differently, the Seahawks trying to give it away. Seattle has a cakewalk schedule heading into the playoffs, so they will very likely be your No.1 seed. That's going to make a Manning vs. Manning Super Bowl tough this season, but I'm sure Paul Tagliabue has a couple tricks left, yet.

New Orleans (2-8) at N.Y. Jets (2-8), 8:30 p.m.
New Orleans might be the best 2-8 team of all time. They're ranked 16th in total offense and 12th in total defense. Meanwhile, New York is 30th and 13th, respectively. New Orleans should easily win this game, but there continue to be zillions of off-field distractions. I know, I know. You don't really care. This could be one of the lowest rated Sunday Night games ever. I know, I know. You don't really care.
Prediction: Saints, 24-20.
Result: Saints, 21-19.
I've always like Curtis Martin, and I think the Patriots should have kept him instead of Bledsoe, but that would have changed everything, etc., etc., etc. Anyway, it was good to see Martin pass 14,000 career rushing yards. He has a 40-60 chance of catching Emmitt Smith. Obviously, he has to stay healthy. New Orleans now becomes the best 3-8 team in history. At this rate, they end up 8-8. Ok, ok, I have nothing to say about this game.

Monday, Nov. 28
Pittsburgh (7-3) at Indianapolis (10-0), 9:00 p.m.
One streak is ending tonight. Either Pittsburgh is ending Indianapolis' perfect season, or Indy is going to become the only team besides New England to beat Ben Roethlisberger. Indianapolis gets the domed, artificial-turf homefield advantage, and that could be a major factor with Roethlisberger still nursing a sore knee. Both teams traveled last week. Indy (4-0 at home) is coming off a 45-37 win at Cincinnati, while Pitt (4-1 on the road) blew it in overtime, 16-13, at Baltimore. But that was with Tommy Maddox at the offensive helm. The Indianapolis offense is ranked second overall in yards gained (7th rushing, 7th passing). The Pittsburgh defense is 6th overall (3rd rushing, 17th passing). On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's offense is 26th overall (3rd rushing, 23rd passing), but the passing could be misleading with Roethlisberger sidlined for so long. Indy's defense is 8th overall (12th rushing, 9th passing), certainly much improved over last season; but, as has been mentioned before, relatively untested. Indy has scored 305 points; Pittsburgh, 236. Indy has allowed 152; Pittsburgh, 161. Coaches Bill Cowher and Tony Dungy are a wash. Both are upper-tier coaches, but both are also liable to make some huge coaching errors. With a win, Indy is three games ahead of Jacksonville in the AFC South (two with a loss). If Pittsburgh wins, they pull into a tie with Cincinnati for the AFC North; otherwise, they fall back two and into a real battle for a wildcard playoff berth. Roethlisberger has a high quarterback rating, but he usually doesn't carry the team himself. Pittsburgh is going to have to run the ball, score points early, and keep Indy off the board. Indy has to force Roethlisberger to throw by stopping the run and play their usual offense. This could be a great game, but I think you'd have to be nuts to pick against Indy.
Prediction: Colts, 38-28.
Result: Colts, 26-7.
Ready? Say it with me now: "Roethlisberger can't win the big game." Big Ben threw two picks. Notice how he's not that great when he plays good teams? The Steelers also allowed Indy to outgain them on the ground (Edgerrin James had 124 yards rushing). Pretty poor Pittsburgh performance. If Pittsburgh wants to make the playoffs, they're going to have to be Cincinnati this week, and they're going to have to play better than they did Monday. Indianapolis has Tennessee (win), at Jacksonville (now a win), San Diego (probable win), at Seattle (50/50) and Arizona (win) left on their regular season schedule. Go Seahawks.

This week: 10-4. Man, forgetting to publish those Thanksgiving scores really stings.
Last week: 10-6. As Dom DeLuise said as Caesar: "Nice. Nice. Not thrilling, but nice."
Season: 107-67 (.615). Evidently, I'll never recover from that horrendous start. I've always been better in the late game anyway.