Week 12 Picks

I hope everyone had a happy and safe Thanksgiving and ensuing weekend. It was a strange week for me, and that kept me off my keyboard for a bit, but I'm back on track, and ready to impart my special kind of knowledge -- for what it's worth.

Hey, wouldn't you know it. I was actually posting picks for Thanksgiving Day. I didn't have much time, but there I was, pounding out a couple paragraphs, trying to give you a tidbit to add to your feast ... and I forgot to hit the publish button. And wouldn't you know it? I got both games right. I had Atlanta by 10 and Denver by 1, but, hey, I didn't get them in on time, so they don't count. Woe is me.

Anyway, let's look at the rest of this week's games:

Sunday, Nov. 27
Baltimore (3-7) at Cincinnati (7-3), 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore stole a game from a floundering Pittsburgh team, and Cincinnati lost to nearly unbeatable Indy. Evidently, Baltimore realized they're only role is that of spoiler, and they got off to a good start there by knocking off Pitt. Can they do the same to Cincy? I doubt it. Running back Jamal Lewis really is a piece of garbage, and he's about to lose his job. He'll probably just go back to running drugs instead of footballs. Quarterback Kyle Boller is nursing a back injury, so you can imagine how ineffective he'll be, considering how ineffective he is as usual. The defense is still missing linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed. Cincinnati is going to be looking to take out last week's frustration on someone, and the home town crowd is going to be there urging them on. As oft is the case in the NFL, last week is not this week.
Prediction: Bengals, 31-9.

Carolina (7-3) at Buffalo (4-6), 1:00 p.m.
Both teams are coming off humiliating defeats from last week. Carolina lost 13-3, but it was to Chicago, and while the Windy City team has been a surprise this season, that certainly doesn't make Carolina feel better. Buffalo was pummeled by San Diego. But Buffalo is at home, where they play far better (4-1 home, 0-5 road), and they have few injuries to speak of. Carolina is OK on the road (4-1 home, 3-2 road), but this is Buffalo, and it's getting cold. Running backs Deshawn Foster and Stephen Davis are banged up, and that could impact the game plan. Buffalo quarterback J.P. Losman has yet to show the ability to win an important game. Buffalo is 3-0 against Carolina all-time.
Prediction: Panthers, 21-16.

Chicago (7-3) at Tampa Bay (7-3), 1:00 p.m.
Both of these teams are 7-3 and in first place in their respective divisions. There must be a conspiracy. Chicago has the best points-against defense in the league with a mind-boggling 110 after 10 games (easy math). They're also 7th against the run and 2nd against the pass, making them first overall in yards allowed, too. Tampa isn't too shabby. They're 3rd overall in yards allowed. Neither team has any significant injuries. Both teams have one home loss and two road losses. Chicago usually scores just enough to win. Tampa has lost big a couple times, keeping them out of the points-allowed race. It comes down to who makes the most mistakes. Tampa gets the edge on home-field advantage.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 16-13.

Cleveland (4-6) at Minnesota (5-5), 1:00 p.m.
Cleveland is coming of a stunning 22-0 domination over Miami. Minnesota squeezed by Green Bay on Monday Night, leaving them with a short week. Cleveland is 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 3-1 at home. Quarterback Brad Johnson has gone 3-0 since the demise of Dante Culpepper. If -> IF <- Cleveland plays like they did last week, they have a chance. Reuben Droughns needs to have a huge day. Give the turf advantage to the home team. I don't think I've picked a Minnesota game correctly all season. Prediction: Vikings, 31-17.

New England at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
Read the stand-alone game preview. Thanks.
Prediction: Patriots, 28-27.

San Diego (6-4) at Washington (5-5), 1:00 p.m.
San Diego, again, is coming off a pummeling of Buffalo. Washington is floundering again after a home loss to Oakland. Two teams headed in opposite directions. Both teams need a win to keep pace in their respective divisions. One team has a wicked uphill battle after today. Both teams have their share of bruises. Washington is 4-1 at home. San Diego is 3-2 on the road. Can Washington stop a steamrolling San Diego offense?
Prediction: Chargers, 34-27.

San Francisco (2-8) at Tennessee (2-8), 1:00 p.m.
San Francisco is 0-4 on the road with 2 wins at home. Tennessee is 1-4 home and away. Meaning, if anyone can lose at home, it's Tennessee. But if anyone can't win on the road, it's Frisco. Really. Who cares? San Fran takes the NFC lead in the Reggie Brown sweepstakes.
Prediction: Titans, 28-19.

St. Louis (4-6) at Houston (1-9), 1:00 p.m.
Speaking of the Reggie Brown sweepstakes. San Fran could still end up with Brown because Houston doesn't necessarily need a running back. Houston's one win is at home, and St. Louis is 1-4 on the road. Houston is 31th in overall offense, and 30st in defense. The Rams are 29th in defense, BUT they're 5th in offense. There's your difference in this one. I don't know what happened to Houston after a couple years of improvement. Total collapse. Probably won't end today.
Prediction: Rams, 38-12.

Jacksonville (7-3) at Arizona (3-7), 4:05 p.m.
Arizona doesn't even have a winning record at home (2-3), and Jacksonville has a winning road record (3-2). Don't talk to be about Kurt Warner or Arizona's third-ranked passing offense. They can't run the ball (70.1 ypg, 32nd). Jacksonville has a good, balanced offense and the No. 1 ranked defense against the pass, allowing just 159.9 yards per game, and that's not because they're run defense is horrible (like other teams with good passing defenses).
Prediction: Jaguars, 24-13.

Miami (3-7) at Oakland (4-6), 4:05 p.m.
Miami linebacker Zack Thomas is out for this game. Oakland defensive tackle Warren Sapp has been placed on injured reserve (career over?). This game is irrelevant in so many ways. Oakland probably thinks they still have a chance, so they'll probably come to play. Miami coach Nick Saban is starting to use the rest of the season to evaluate players for next year, so while he will try to win, he knows his team is out of it, and he's going to do what needs to be done for the future.
Prediction: Raiders, 31-13.

Green Bay (2-8) at Philadelphia (4-6), 4:15 p.m.
This has been a bizarre season for both teams. You can throw out the stats and everything else you know about these two teams. Philly is against the ropes, and both teams are out of the playoffs. (OK, Philly is probably mathematically still in it, but let's dabble in reality for a while.) I don't know how you predict a game like this. You take a sneaker company's advice: Just do it.
Prediction: Packers, 17-14.

N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Seattle (8-2), 4:15 p.m.
The 4 o' clock game of the week. New York needed two 4th-quarter touchdowns to barely squeeze by Philadelphia (27-17) in the Meadowlands last week. Seattle gave up 13 late points to edge San Francisco in the Bay City, 27-25. Both teams are great at home, Seattle moreso (5-0). New York is 2-2 on the road. Seattle has the NFC West wrapped up, but they want to ensure home-field advantage for the playoffs. New York is still battling for the NFC East division lead. Eveyone is talking about Eli Manning, but Matt Hasselbeck is no slouch, and I'll take Shawn Alexander over Tiki Barber any day of the week. Seattle still has the best offense in the league, and their defense is pretty darn good too. New York's offense is okay and getting better, and their defense is solid too. The numbers give Seattle an edge, and so does home field.
Prediction: Seahawks, 31-21.

New Orleans (2-8) at N.Y. Jets (2-8), 8:30 p.m.
New Orleans might be the best 2-8 team of all time. They're ranked 16th in total offense and 12th in total defense. Meanwhile, New York is 30th and 13th, respectively. New Orleans should easily win this game, but there continue to be zillions of off-field distractions. I know, I know. You don't really care. This could be one of the lowest rated Sunday Night games ever. I know, I know. You don't really care.
Prediction: Saints, 24-20.

Monday, Nov. 28
Pittsburgh (7-3) at Indianapolis (10-0), 9:00 p.m.
One streak is ending tonight. Either Pittsburgh is ending Indianapolis' perfect season, or Indy is going to become the only team besides New England to beat Ben Roethlisberger. Indianapolis gets the domed, artificial-turf homefield advantage, and that could be a major factor with Roethlisberger still nursing a sore knee. Both teams traveled last week. Indy (4-0 at home) is coming off a 45-37 win at Cincinnati, while Pitt (4-1 on the road) blew it in overtime, 16-13, at Baltimore. But that was with Tommy Maddox at the offensive helm. The Indianapolis offense is ranked second overall in yards gained (7th rushing, 7th passing). The Pittsburgh defense is 6th overall (3rd rushing, 17th passing). On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's offense is 26th overall (3rd rushing, 23rd passing), but the passing could be misleading with Roethlisberger sidlined for so long. Indy's defense is 8th overall (12th rushing, 9th passing), certainly much improved over last season; but, as has been mentioned before, relatively untested. Indy has scored 305 points; Pittsburgh, 236. Indy has allowed 152; Pittsburgh, 161. Coaches Bill Cowher and Tony Dungy are a wash. Both are upper-tier coaches, but both are also liable to make some huge coaching errors. With a win, Indy is three games ahead of Jacksonville in the AFC South (two with a loss). If Pittsburgh wins, they pull into a tie with Cincinnati for the AFC North; otherwise, they fall back two and into a real battle for a wildcard playoff berth. Roethlisberger has a high quarterback rating, but he usually doesn't carry the team himself. Pittsburgh is going to have to run the ball, score points early, and keep Indy off the board. Indy has to force Roethlisberger to throw by stopping the run and play their usual offense. This could be a great game, but I think you'd have to be nuts to pick against Indy.
Prediction: Colts, 38-28.