Week 10 Picks Review

Sunday, Nov. 13
Arizona (2-6) at Detroit (3-5), 1 p.m.
Arizona, with the No. 4 ranked passing game in the league, has three touchdowns in 21 trips to the red zone. Sad. Arizona is 0-3 on the road. Detroit has virtually no offense but has scored 131 points, just 15 less than Arizona. The good news for Detroit is they've allowed only 152, compared to Arizona's 211. Arizona's only win against an NFC team was San Francisco in Mexico City. Detroit's was against Green Bay in Week 1. I've been concentrating on this game for 5 weeks. I hope that supermarket still has Kurt Warner's job available.
Prediction: Lions, 31-10.
Result: Lions, 29-21.
Detroit showed they can have an offense ... at least against a lousy defense. Three Joey Harrington to Roy Williams touchdown passes and two Jason Hanson field goals did the job. Detroit also had 157 yards on the ground. Arizona had 38.

Baltimore (2-6) at Jacksonville (5-3), 1 p.m.
Throw out that 3-point fluke loss to St. Louis, and Jacksonville has had a pretty good run lately. Baltimore has not (3-game losing streak). Both teams are good against the pass, so don't expect any aerial spectacles. Jacksonville has the best chance to grind out some ground yardage. Baltimore remains without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, but quarterback Kyle Boller returns for the first time since Week 1. You really don't think that's going to matter, do you?
Prediction: Jaguars, 26-9.
Result: Jaguars, 30-3.
Baltimore: 110 yards passing, 53 rushing. End of story. You know what's funny? Baltimore scored first.

Houston (1-7) at Indianapolis (8-0), 1 p.m.
What is understood need not be discussed.
Prediction: Colts, 42-13.
Result: Colts, 31-17.
Nor does it need to be recounted.

Kansas City (5-3) at Buffalo (3-5), 1 p.m.
Even with Priest Holmes out, Kansas City should have a moderately easy time with Buffalo. The Larry Johnson kid is for real, despite his prior run-ins with Dick Vermeil, and the old guy couldn't be happier right now: Buffalo is 31st against the run. If Johnson does his job and holds onto the ball, that will make the passing game that much more effective. KC merely needs to put the brakes on Willis McGahee. Merely.
Prediction: Chiefs, 28-24.
Result: Bills, 14-3.
Larry Johnson is for real. 132 yards. But Trent Green tossed three picks and fumbled one away. Buffalo didn't self-destruct, and J.P. Losman played like a quarterback (2 TD, 0 TO).

Minnesota (3-5) at N.Y. Giants (6-2), 1 p.m.
The weeks you want Minnesota to pull an upset. Minnesota is horrible on the road (0-4). New York is solid at home (4-0). Just about all the key indicators and stats favor New York, so let's pick a score and move on.
Prediction: Giants, 35-10.
Result: Vikings, 24-21.
Ask and you shall receive, they say. Actually, there wasn't a lot of receiving out there. Lots of returning though. A punt, a pick and a kick, all returned for touchdowns. Li'l Eli had a horrible day with 4 interceptions. Besides the return scores (92 yards on the INT, 86 on the kickoff, 71 on the punt; total259), the Vikings had 2 more punt returns for 16 yards, 3 more kickoff returns for 72 yards, and 3 more interception returns for 57 yards; a grand total of 394 return yards; but only 137 yards offense (125 yards passing and 12 rushing).

New England (4-4) at Miami (3-5), 1 p.m.
New England has one of the top passing offenses in the league. Miami has one of the best pass defenses. Miami has one of the best running games. New England has one of the worse run defenses. Adam Vinatieri is not as automatic as before (9 of 13 this season, 0-2 beyond 50 yards). It looks like Richard Seymour is going to play. That will help New England more than I can express. Oh, Tom Brady still hasn't lost back-to-back games in his career.
Prediction: Patriots, 23-17.
Result: Patriots, 23-16.
Tom Brady still hasn't lost back-to-back games in his career. Seymour made a tremendous difference. Vinatieri was 3-for-3. The defense stopped the Dolphins running game dead. Then again, they allowed Frerotte to throw for 360 yards. You know all the rest. I already wrote about it. But how about that score prediction, huh? Huh?

San Francisco (2-6) at Chicago (5-3), 1 p.m.
Chicago has won four straight. There's something I never thought I'd write this season. San Francisco is 32nd in offense and defense. Only Chicago's defense is great (3rd), but their offense is horrible (27th). That's OK. Plenty of defenses score points. Chicago has really turned the dials on the scoreboard a couple times.
Prediction: Bears, 24-10.
Result: Bears, 17-9.
Chicago has won five straight. There's something I didn't think I'd write this season until last week. Might have been interesting if Joe Nedney had hit that field goal and Nathan Vasher never had the chance to run it back for a touchdown. Well, it might have been a different outcome, but it probably wouldn't have been interesting.

Denver (6-2) at Oakland (3-5), 4:05 p.m.
Despite the obvious disparities between these two teams, Oakland always gives Denver a battle in the "black hole of intelligence." Denver is coming off a bye, and Oakland just suffered a bitter last-minute defeat to another division rival. One team has preparation, the other has rage. Both play on the dirty side. Both have great running games. There's a gulf of difference between Jake Plummer and Kerry Collins, neither team is that good against the pass. Both Denver losses are on the road.
Prediction: Broncos, 32-27.
Result: Broncos, 31-17.
Collins out-threw Plummer, but Plummer outplayed Collins. Collins had 3 INTs, and the Raiders only gained 60 yards on the ground. Denver accumulated 121 rushing yards and Plummer was virtually flawless. I think I'd rather face Indy over Denver in the playoffs.

N.Y. Jets (2-6) at Carolina (6-2), 4:05 p.m.
Despite the obvious disparities between these two teams ... oh, wait. Never mind.
Prediction: Panthers, 28-6.
Result: Panthers, 30-3.
Nice prediction. Not the way I pictured it though. Carolina gained only 6 yards more scored 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay (1-7) at Atlanta (6-2), 4:15 p.m.
Ditto.
Prediction: Falcons, 38-17.
Result: Packers, 33-25.
Don't say anything bad about Mike Vick's three-fumble performance, because (like a real quarterback) he threw for more than 200 yards. Of course, he got beat by the next to last team in the league with just one win. Hey, Mike: Did you see the guy calling signals for the other team? THAT's a quarterback.

St. Louis (4-4) at Seattle (6-2), 4:15 p.m.
OK, not quite as lopsided, but St. Louis is floundering, and Seattle can all but put away the division with a win. St. Louis is 1-3 on the road. Seattle is 4-0 at home. St. Louis has won 2 in a row; Seattle, 4 in a row. But, wait! St. Louis is second in the league with 5.9 yards per offensive play. Oh, Seattle is first with 6.1. St. Louis' offense is ranked 2nd; Seattle's, first. St. Louis' defense is ranked 30th; Seattle's, 14th.
Prediction: Seahawks, 30-14.
Result: Seahawks, 31-16.
Anyone have Seattle in the Super Bowl? They're looking pretty good. 174 yards (165 for Shawn Alexander) on the ground is impressive, even against a lousy defense. By the way, Seattle's average yards per play, 6.4; St. Louis, 5.5. Another pretty fine prediction.

Washington (5-3) at Tampa Bay (5-3), 4:15 p.m.
Even records. Washington is 1-3 on the road. Tampa is 3-1 at home. But these teams are headed in opposite directions. Tampa has lost 3 of 4, including their home loss last week to Carolina. And Washington picked up their road win in Philly last week too. The recipe for beating Tampa seems easy: Stop "Cadillac". It's been a pretty easy task lately.
Prediction: Redskins, 24-13.
Result: Buccaneers, 36-35.
Mike Alstott outgained the Caddy (21-20), had a better average (2.3-2.0) and more touchdowns (2-0). I think Alstott was stopped short on the 2-point conversion. I didn't see much of the game before the last few minutes, and no one wrote about anything except the last few minutes, so I have nothing else to say, but I think Tampa was more lucky than good.

Cleveland (3-5) at Pittsburgh (6-2), 8:30 p.m.
Despite Ben Roethlisberger riding the pine, Pittsburgh should be OK today. Cleveland simply isn't ready for prime time. Still, Romeo Crennel could pull a rabbit out of a hat against Charlie Batch, who looked less than professional last week against Green Bay.
Prediction: Steelers, 23-10.
Result: Steelers, 34-21.
Bill Cowher pulled out all the stops to get by a 3-5 team. I'm not exactly sure what his point was, unless he was treating it more like a preseason game and evaluating players for future reference. After a good start, Cleveland just didn't have enough to be competitive. But there are definitely signs that the future will be better.

Monday, Nov. 14
Dallas (5-3) at Philadelphia (4-4), 9 p.m.
While the other NFC East teams beat up on each other, the N.Y. Giants with their easy schedule and 9 home games are pulling away. Is Philadelphia still reeling from the Terrell Owens circus? I don't think so. Are they ready for this game? Yeah, probably. Will they finally try to run the ball a little? I would guess so. Have you seen a review elsewhere that has actually talked about the game, instead of a stinking loser who's not even putting on a uniform? Probably not. Dallas pummelled Philadelphia (33-10) earlier this season in Dallas. That was the beginning of a 1-3 slide for Philadelphia and a 3-1 streak for Dallas. If Drew Bledsoe protects the ball( no interceptions, fumbles or sacks that lead to punts), Dallas wins. If Philly loses this game, they can kiss the playoffs goodbye. Bledsoe gets sacked (but will it be deep enough?).
Prediction: Cowboys, 27-26.
Result: Cowboys, 21-20.
There have been many amazing finishes this season. This was perhaps the most improbable. And now that it's said and done, Philly is lucky the Giants lost too. Otherwise, they'd be finished. And with McNabb's injury, they might be finished anyway. Bledsoe got sacked. He had a pretty lousy game until the last scoring drive. Philadelphia dominated the game but couldn't score the knockout. That might ultimately be the difference between staying competitive until the end of the season and spending more time Christmas shopping.

Open date: Cincinnati, New Orleans, San Diego, Tennessee

This Week: 10-4. Good week. Just a couple tough losses from a really nice record. Just a couple slim wins from a mediocre record, too. What have we learned from this?
Season: 87-57. That's 60 percent. I'm usually 5-10 percent better. Going to have to turn it on going down the stretch.