A Halfway Look at the AFC East

Before we look at this week's games, let's take a quick look at the first half of the season in the AFC East with a glance toward the second half.

From NFL.com:

AFC East
Team	W	L	T	PCT	PF	PA	Home	Road	AFC	NFC	DIV	Streak
New England	4	4	0	.500	180	220	2-2	2-2	3-3	1-1	1-0	Lost 1
Buffalo	3	5	0	.375	128	159	3-1	0-4	3-2	0-3	2-1	Lost 2
Miami	3	5	0	.375	146	151	2-2	1-3	1-3	2-2	0-2	Lost 1
N.Y. Jets	2	6	0	.250	118	170	2-2	0-4	1-5	1-1	1-1	Lost 3

New England (4-4): Until recently (like this week), I made fun of .500 or worse teams leading their divisions.

If you chose any arbitrary team and told someone, "They lost both coordinators in the offseason, half of their 10 defensive backs are on injured reserved, one of their key linebackers retired during the preseason, and they've had several injuries to their best defensive players, they've gone through 4 or 5 running backs, oh, and they've played the toughest first half of a schedule as there has ever been," they'd probably tell you that team is probably in last, no matter what division they're in.

That's the difference between the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and the other 31 teams in the league. Yes, things look rather bleak, but the Patriots are in the driver's seat in the East, and there is light at the end of the tunnel. New England has 5 of their 6 division games remaining on the schedule, and until the recent demise of Priest Holmes in Kansas City, there was only one non-division game that really worried you.

Now, we New Englanders know from experience that no matter what anyone's record is in the East, these games "generally" tend to be rather competitive (except the two Buffalo games in 2003). The Pats have never had an easy time in Miami (Remember the 4:11 collapse last year?), where they're headed this weekend, but New England has learned that it can win there. So, considering the state of the team, none of these are locks, but they're all winnable.

Buffalo (3-5): The Bills, underachievers in the 2005 East, are in second based on division record. Buffalo should be at least 6-2, losing winnable games to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Oakland, and they perhaps should have beaten New England.

The J.P. Losman experiment went down in a ball of flames, and the Kelly Holcomb experience isn't much better. Last year's Drew Bledsoe debacle was just as bad. The offense can't score. The defense that has held the Bills together for several years is faltering, but still holding opponents to about 20 points (excepting Oakland).

Buffalo is much better at home than on the road. The bad news is that of the four teams coming to town this winter, only Carolina isn't a cold-weather team, too. That could eliminate some of the home-field edge when they play Kansas City (this week), New England and Denver. The road games are going to be tough, too, with San Diego, Miami and Cincinnati on the slate.

Miami (3-5): Nick Saban is the best thing to happen to Dolphins football since Dan Marino. Miami is miles ahead of where they were last year, no thanks to Ricky Williams. Miami's success story is probably as confusing, possibly more, than New England's. After wrecking Denver in week one and then losing to the Jets, the Dolphins edged Carolina and then lost to Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. They then won convincingly over New Orleans and hung tough against Atlanta.

Miami seems to be moving in the right direction. Running back Ronnie Brown has proven Saban a "Piolian" judge of talent (so far), Williams is regaining his former status, and despite having nothing more than a questionable quarterback, the Dolphins are no longer an automatic for teams that chalked up the W when their schedules came out -- that would include our very own New England Patriots.

Miami's schedule isn't that foreboding. The Dolphins next eight are sandwiched between a home-and-away pair with the Pats. Traveling to Cleveland and Oakland should prove conceivable wins, and hosting Buffalo shouldn't pose a serious roadblock. A road trip to San Diego should be the most serious threat (at least until their return to Foxboro). All else they have is the Jets and Tennessee. Several of those teams are in the bottom third in run defense, so draw your own conclusions.

N.Y. Jets: The football god of injury prevention certainly hasn't been nice to the Jets either. The loss of Wayne Chrebet might not seem very key to a lot of people, but Chrebet and Curtis Martin are two of the most dependable players the Jets have had for many seasons. His loss will have more of a psychological effect. Regardless, this team is banged up in all the wrong places, and that's going to make it tough for them to do anything down the stretch. (Herman Edwards doesn't help either.)

I think New Yorkers (very predictably) are making a little too much of Brooks Bollinger's fourth-quarter success against San Diego last week. Beating Miami in Week 2 and Tampa Bay in Week 5 is nothing to brag about. Most of their losses have been by 10 points or more.

The Jets start the second half with a double-roadtrip-whammy of Carolina and Denver. Let's see how Bollinger looks after those two games before we retire his number. For any other team, the rest of the schedule after that would be manageable, and it might be for the Jets. Four more division games, including the last two games of the year, both at home. Their other non-division games are Oakland and New Orleans.

The Division, Looking Ahead

I'd like to say my powers of prognostication show a clear picture of the division in Week 17. Needless to say, they're a little out of whack this season. Must not be sleeping enough. Leaving off sentence subjects and such. Anyway.

Things could be much clearer after this week, but this is a murky weekend indeed, starting with New England at Miami. This game can make or break both teams' seasons. The winner will have an edge heading into the New Year's rematch finale -- what a day that will be! (Guess who has tickets.)

Whichever of these two win the division, it will be by a game at most. There's a good chance they'll have identical season records, and it will come down to division or even conference records. Most likely, it's going to come down to the Jan. 1 showdown. Good thing for the Patriots it's at Foxboro.

Buffalo is still in it, but they have the most uphill road and just don't seem to have much direction. The best they can hope for is to play a spoiler role in the final weeks. Mike Mularkey is going to start feeling the heat. The Jets are on the verge of collapse, but an upset in the next two weeks could alter that scenario as well. Barring that, a record of 2-8 would certainly have them on a downward spiral.

Here's how I see it turning out:

	AFC East
	Team		W	L	T
	New England		10	6	0
	Miami		9	7	0
	Buffalo		6	10	0
	N.Y. Jets		4	12	0