Game Preview: Week 9, Patriots vs. Indianapolis

No one -- well, no one except the New England Patriots -- likes to play in Gillette Stadium. It's notorious for not being particularly loud. It doesn't have a dog pound or a black hole. It doesn't have a pirate ship that fires after touchdowns. Only a few years old, it doesn't have the historical aura of Lambeau Field or Mile High. No, it doesn't have any of that.

So why do the Patriots play so much better here that every team in the league fears flying to Foxboro?

Let's come back to that question and talk about one of those teams that really hates going to Gillette: The Indianapolis Colts.

It's been well documented, and most of us are aware that the Peyton Manning-led Colts are winless in Gillette, winless against Bill Belichick / Tom Brady-led teams. Last season, opening day. The league had imposed rules changes for pass defenders, specifically designed to help Indianapolis beat New England (they can deny it all they want, but the truth seems evident). In the playoffs, a decimated Patriots secondary held the touchdown record setting-Manning to 3 points.

Tonight, a Colt offense that seems to be gaining steam with the re-emergence of running back Edgerrin James is brimming with renewed confidence coming to Foxboro, because this time they have something resembling an NFL defense with them. Again, the Patriots are fielding an injury-plagued defense that has been far less than stellar to this point in the season. And the offense has been inconsistent at best.

New question: How do the Patriots pull out this one?

Hmmm ... We'll come back to that one too.

It's funny. All week, the talking heads have been saying "This time, give the edge to Indianapolis." This time? You've been giving them the edge for the last three or four years. You always give them the edge. None of you gave the Patriots a snowball's chance in the RCA Dome to win. For some reason, despite all your tough words, you just don't sound all that convinced.

Truly, you can expect the Colts to be ready, no matter what I or anyone else says.

Inside The Horrid Numbers

Indy is No. 4 in the league in rushing offense, averaging 134.9 yards per game, while New England's rushing defense is ranked 24th, allowing 128.4. Not a good start. The Colts are averaging 218.9 ypg in the air (16th), while the Pats allow 230.7 (4th). Better. The Patriots are 27th in rushing offense with just 83.9 ypg. The Colts allow 108.6 ypg (14th). Not good. New England is 2nd in the league in passing offense (279.0 ypg), and Indy is 7th defending the pass, allowing only 169.3 ypg. Clearly, these numbers give the Colts an edge.

Then you look at the two teams schedules. New England (4-3) has played Oakland, Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, Denver and Buffalo -- a combined 35-22. Indy (7-0) has beaten Baltimore, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco, St. Louis and Houston (a combined 19-38), enjoying their bye last week and giving them an extra week and a day to prepare for tonight.

There are some other important numbers. Perhaps most important, as almost anyone will tell you, is turnover ratio. Indianapolis has 12 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries, while giving up just 5 interceptions and 3 fumbles (+8). New England has just 2 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries, while giving up 5 INTs and 6 fumbles (-6). That's very unlike recent Patriot teams and does not bode well. Turnovers are usually stats in Colt-Patriot matchups.

Indianapolis is third in the league with 26 sacks. New England is tied for 28th with just 13. The Colts have the fewest penalties in the league (36 for 245 yards), the Pats are middle of the pack (59 for 507). Indy has a 59.3 TD percentage in the Red Zone. New England is a little better with 61.9 (but fewer opportunities). The big difference is the Colts allow just 38.5 percent touchdowns in 13 opportunities, while New England has been allowing 68.2 percent in 22 opportunities.

The Pats are 30-6 during the regular season after Nov. 1, but this hasn't been typical New England weather lately. The forecast for tonight is 41 degrees at kickoff, clear (obviously no precipitation), with a brisk 9 mph breeze out of the west. Conditions aren't expected to vary greatly before midnight.

More Than Just Numbers

Let's get back to that question about why teams don't like coming to Gillette. With the numbers above (minus the schedules), it looks like the Patriots have no chance to even compete in this game. And while all the talking heads are rooting hard against New England, you can hear the hedge in their tone. "They're playing in Gillette. The Patriots rarely lose in Gillette."

Well, let's be frank. One reason the Pats are good at home is the weather. It's New England. We have it all, and we adapt to it in seconds. We expect sometimes hourly changes in conditions, and most other teams can't deal with that. But, as we've already seen, that probably won't be a factor tonight.

What else? The condition of the field. Like the parquet of the Boston Garden, there seems to be spots of all kinds on this playing surface. From that big brown stripe down the middle of the field to all the little divots and other vagaries, the Patriots appear to know what's where. Opponents always complain about the condition of the field. And it's odd, for such a beautiful and relatively new stadium that the surface is so bad. But, it's New England. Edge: Patriots.

"Cut that meat! Cut that meat!"

I say Patriot fans are among the loudest in the league. Gillette doesn't get that loud, but that's because of all the corporate wannabes that sit in their cozy little boxes and don't contribute to the atmosphere. But those that brave the elements make themselves heard. From the "Bruuuu!" when Tedy Bruschi does just about anything, to the "Cut that meat! Cut that meat!" that permeated Gillette during the playoffs last year, to the fan-made snow explosions following a 30-inch Nor'easter dumping, Patriot fans have a connection to this team's players. (I wonder if they'll stick with "Cut that meat!" or switch to "D caf! D caf!"). The loudest? Maybe not. And we don't wear dog masks and spiked shoulder pads. We're creative, and we get the job done.

(One cautionary note: New England has had Manning's number and Gillette has held it's parquet floor mystique, but if the Colts find a way to end those streaks tonight, it will eliminate that as a psychological factor in the future. In a way, there's a lot more than just a win or loss on the line. But not for this year's playoffs. If New England and Indy meet again, it will be in the RCA Dome.)

There's one more reason no one likes coming to Foxboro: Bill Belichick. No one prepares a team better. No one finds the weaknesses in an opponent better. No one designs a gameplan better. No one makes halftime adjustments better. Tony Dungy? He's great when he has a great team that has a cheeseball schedule. But in visits to Foxboro, Dungy has consistently been out-coached by Belichick. While the cards are stacked, and have been by the NFL, Belichick's boys will be prepared. It's whether they execute that remains to be determined.

Winning The Big One

Dynasty teetering on edge. We've been through this every step of the way since Drew Bledsoe took a helmet in the chest. The Patriots won every "important" big game in the last two seasons and in the season two years before. They've done it virtually every way conceivable, from dominating offense, to dominating defense, to hanging on by fingernails and kicking 5 field goals, to ... well, every way conceivable, like I said. How do the Patriots pull out this one?

Last week's return of Bruschi is significant. With only one defensive interception and only four forced fumbles in six games prior, Bruschi's return made two more turnovers possible. That may signal a change in some of the defense's capabilities. The Patriots will certainly need to make their share of big defensive plays, and the Patriots are a different team with Bruschi and without.

Pressuring Manning. New England will need to put pressure on Manning, disrupt his rhythm. With the Pats secondary hurting possibly worse than ever before, making Manning hear footsteps will be key. Hit him when you can, but be careful of the ever-potential "you hit Manning too hard" or "you hit Manning more than 5 microseconds after the ball left his hand" penalties.

Stopping the run. The Patriots have been horrible here all season long. Containing James is going to be a tough task, a task probably dedicated to Bruschi. Like Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams, New England is going to want to make sure James (like Marshall Faulk) takes a thump on every play.

Bumping the receivers. Disrupt their patterns. Slow them down at the line. When they touch a ball, hit them. Hard.

Penalties and turnovers. Plain and simple, you have to cut down on the former and increase the latter.

Hopefully, Richard Seymour will play. I don't expect he will.

Belichick usually has a pretty interesting defensive gameplan. Always something a little different. Never what you expect. I think this week will be something really different: a 3-8 or 2-9. Movement like a kicked over anthill. It will be Bruschi's job to control the chaos, perhaps the one thing he has really been preparing for all that time.

Whatever the gameplan, expect that Belichick spent a lot of time watching film of Week 3's Cleveland at Indy. The Browns held the Colts to 13 points, but could muster only 6 of their own. Regardless, as we all remember, Cleveland's new head coach is Romeo Crennel, the Patriots old defensive coordinator. The film should provide a good starting point on how to slow down Indy. How much Belichick finds useful in Week 9, we'll find out tonight.

Offensively, the Patriots simply need to protect the ball and keep the clock moving. Not something they've done particularly well lately, but something they're certainly capable of. A lot of pundits say the tight ends need to be more involved receiving. I think they need to block and then worry about receiving: i.e. HIT DWIGHT FREENEY, then release. I've also heard a lot about establishing the run, despite the spate of injuries to all the running backs. I say, come out in a five-wide set and hurl the ball everywhere to everyone.

Manning is going to be hucking the ball downfield, trying to exploit the weak secondary. That means their drives may not last long. New England needs to revert back to the 2001 offense: possession passing. Nickel and dime your way down the field 3, 4 yards at a time. Work the clock. Wear down the defense.

Maybe their "idiot kicker" Mike Vanderjagt will give us a hand. Or a foot.

The referee for tonight is Bernie Kukar. I like this guy more often than not. His crew is generally excellent, and they know the rules better than most.

It kills me to do this, but ...

Prediction: Colts, 34-24.

Once again, we won't have to suffer through Phil Simms saying how great Manning and Indianapolis are. The game will be broadcast on Channel 5. Al Michaels is your play-by-play man, and John Madden is the analyst. Michaels and Madden aren't as bad as they have been in the past. Tonight should be an interesting gauge to see whether they blow every little thing out of proportion or call it straight. Michele Tafoya is your useless sideline reporter. ... As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.