Game Preview: Week 10, Patriots @ Miami

Due to the result of last week's game of the year, game of the decade, etc., today, we bring you the game of the year, game of the decade, etc. That's right, the New England Patriots are headed to Miami with momentum and control of the AFC East on the line. The Pats are 4-4 with Miami a full game behind. With all else being equal, the winner of today's game will have the edge when the Dolphins come to Foxboro on New Year's Day in the season finale.

Too much hype? Maybe. Maybe not. If you ask Bill Belichick, and if he gives you an honest answer, this is far from "just a game, like any other." In addition to everything above, it's a division game, and those are always more important than other games.

The Patriots are 1-0 in the division, having faced only the Buffalo Bills so far, and that wasn't pretty. The Dolphins are 0-2, having lost to both the New York Jets and the Bills earlier in the season, before their alleged re-emergence. Setting them two games back and 3 in the division would almost certainly take the pressure off, at least a little.

There's possibly more good news. Richard Seymour has practiced with the team this week. His return would be enormous considering Miami's 1-2 punch of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Brown is contending for rookie of the year, and Williams is starting to look like the pre-insanity-Ricky. Seymour is a tough run blocker, whose mere presence could give the Pats defensive line a boost. He hasn't been announced as a starter or inactive yet, so anything can happen.

There's bad news too. Wide receiver David Givens, running back Patrick Pass and offensive tackle Tom Ashworth are out. That leaves New England with an injured Corey Dillon, and newcomers Mike Cloud and Heath Evans as their only running backs. That also leaves them shorthanded on the O line. Givens is certainly a loss, dependable as he's been, but Tom Brady still will have a lot of targets, especially of the tight ends remain involved as they were last week.

Speaking of which, TE Daniel Graham is nursing a shoulder, so you may see a little more of Christian Fauria today.

Really, it boils down to this. The Patriots have to stop the run. End of story. Yes, they're susceptible deep as they have been all season, but Miami's quarterback is Gus Frerotte, possibly relieved by Sage Rosenfels. It's not Peyton Manning, not even Kelly Holcomb. And if Seymour plays (and if he's close to 100 percent), the extra pass pressure generates should contain the Dolphins' QBs.

If that doesn't work, we're going to have to hope for the best from Corey Dillon, and Tom Brady is going to have to have a game like last week. Adam Vinatieri, who is just 9 of 13 in field goal attempts this year (0-2 over 50 yards), is going to have to return to form.

Dillon should get some help from Cloud, but this pair has been subject to turnovers, so they need to protect the ball. Brady has a million weapons, and he's going to need them all, and they're going to have to make some catches. Brady will probably be under constant pressure, not only from Jason Taylor, but from everywhere on the field. I think Nick Saban will blitz on maybe 60 percent or more of the Patriots pass plays. The Dolphins defensive backfield is also miles ahead of New England's. Usually, you can say Brady is practicing against a defense as good as he sees on Sundays. Not this year.

The usual other stuff will be important. The Pats are now -7 in turnover ratio -- second worst in the AFC. The good news? Miami is -4. The Pats have one of the top passing games; Miami has one of the best pass defenses. Miami has one of the best running games; the Pats have one of the worse run defenses. New England has been horrible defensively in the red zone.

Oh, one more thing. As we all probably remember, the Patriots lost last week, and we all know that the Patriots have a pretty good record following a loss.

Therefore, I think the Pats can and will pull it off. I think Brady will have another great game, though he often struggles against Miami. I think Dillon will do enough. I think the presence of Seymour will make all the difference on defense. I think Rosenfels gives New England a scare late in the game.

Prediction: Patriots, 23-17.