Week 13 Picks

Here's where things get really interesting: post-Thanksgiving in the NFL. This is when the playoff picture starts becoming a little clearer, when one game can palpably be the difference between making or breaking a season, when the Pro Bowlers separate themselves from the better-than-averagers, when the MVP emerges; and, for the worse teams, the fight for draft pick, the time when coaches start falling, when rookies and journeymen assume starting roles, when a few small-time teams play big-time spoiler.

There are several huge games on the slate, starting with battles for division leads: Atlanta at Carolina, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, and Dallas at New York, all 1 p.m. games. Fortunately for us, the Patriots host the Jets at 4:15, so we should be able to flip between the Dallas/NY (Fox 25) and Cincy/Pitt (CBS 4) games. The only other interesting 1 o'clock game of note is Buffalo at Miami in a battle to see who might have a last shot at the division title, should New England falter down the stretch.

At 4, of course, is the New England game. There are only four games total, and the important one is Denver at Kansas City at 4:15. Denver can end KC's playoff hopes and start to solidify the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

The Sunday Night game should be a blast, if you turn down the sound on the TV anyway. Oakland heads to San Diego in what is always one of those great AFC West matchups. Oakland can put a hitch in San Diego's playoff plans.

Monday Night, Seattle is at Philadelphia is important only because Seattle will want to stay ahead of Carolina and Chicago in the hunt for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Here are the predictions:

Sunday, Dec. 4
Atlanta (7-4) at Carolina (8-3), 1:00 p.m.
Atlanta actually has a better road record (4-1) than at home (3-3). Either way, they've had a very weak schedule, their four toughest contests: at Seattle (L), vs New England (L), Tampa Bay (L) and Minnesota (W). Everyone else on their schedule has a losing record. Last week, they dominated Detroit, 27-7, on Thanksgiving, allowing them an extra few days to prepare for this game. Carolina lost two of their first three (to New Orleans and Miami, both by 3 points) and since have been on a 7-1 tear, losing only 13-3 to Chicago. Last week, they squeaked by Buffalo, 13-9, on a late touchdown. Atlanta has beaten Carolina three straight and has won 12 of the last 14 between the two. Atlanta has by far the No. 1 rushing attack in the league with 183 ypg. Carolina has the third best rushing defense, allowing only 82 ypg. Otherwise, Atlanta passes for 166 ypg (28th), while Carolina allows 203 (16th). Overall, Atlanta's offense is ranked 10th; Carolina's defense, 5th. On the other side, Carolina rushes for 90 ypg (28th) and throws for 212 (15th), making them 23rd overall. Atlanta allows 115 ypg on the ground (7th) and 202 in the air (15th), making them 16th overall. I think Carolina's defense has enough to contain Michael Vick, and that's all they really need to do. Otherwise, I think Jake Delhomme is going to have a very good game, aided by the rushing of DeShawn Foster and Stephen Davis. These teams play again January 1.
Prediction: Carolina, 31-24.

Buffalo (4-7) at Miami (4-7), 1:00 p.m.
You'd think a late season game between 4-7 division foes would be tough to call. This shouldn't be. Buffalo gave Carolina a pretty good run, but they were at home in the chill weather. Miami, who sounded like they'd given up a couple weeks ago, went to the Black Hole and embarrassed Oakland. Evidently, Miami coach Nick Saban got his point across when he said he was evaluating players for next year. That ignited a few fires. Buffalo is about where they were last year with a coach that doesn't really know how to motivate his team. Playing down south in a hostile environment isn't going to help them. Expect Miami to control this one with the running game. By the way, should New England somehow lose to New York, whoever wins this game would be only one game back in the division standings with four to play.
Prediction: Dolphins, 24-13.

Cincinnati (8-3) at Pittsburgh (7-4), 1:00 p.m.
There's been a lot of trash talk by fans in Cincinnati. You know what that counts for. This game counts for almost everything. If Cincy wins, Pittsburgh is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. If Pittsburgh wins, they have all the momentum, the division tiebreaker, and a "we've been here before" attitude. Cincinnati has shown a lack of ability to win the big game; they've lost all their recent games against winning teams -- that would be all three of their losses over a 4-3 stretch. Both teams run the ball, with Pittsburgh having a slight edge. On the other hand, Carson Palmer is having a great year, and the Cincinnati passing game is head and shoulders above Pittsburgh's, despite Ben Roethlisberger's quarterback rating. But defense wins, especially this late in the season, and that gives Pittsburgh the edge. Pittsburgh is 5th against the run, and that's going to force Palmer to throw. Cincy is only 25th against the run, so that should open things up for Big Ben; and since Cincinnati is also just 17th against the pass, that will provide all the space the home team needs.
Prediction: Steelers, 27-16.

Dallas (7-4) at N.Y. Giants (7-4), 1:00 p.m.
Both of these teams have some tough games ahead on their schedules, so this is not the be-all, end-all game it sounds like. Still, Dallas beat New York, 16-13, in a sloppy overtime game earlier this season, so a win gives them the division tiebreaker. New York seems to have gotten every break imaginable, from an extra home game, to every close call. It seems opposing teams run out of challenges by the middle of the second quarter, and further close or outright bad calls just benefit Big Blue. No team Drew Bledsoe has ever played for showed any kind of offensive consistency, and Dallas isn't either. I'm going to boil it down to a simple equation for you. Dallas runs the ball effectively, throws New York's pass rush off balance, gives Bledsoe opportunity, gives Dallas a chance to win. That's about a 20 percent chance. Otherwise, Dallas runs ineffectively, New York's pass rush tees off, and that's your ballgame. There are a few other scenarios, but that's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Prediction: Giants, 30-15. Bledsoe gets sacked.

Green Bay (2-9) at Chicago (8-3), 1:00 p.m.
Geez, I feel like I've already been run through the wringer a couple times. Finally, a nice easy game to pick. Watch Chicago blow it. After all, Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 21 of their last 25 meetings, including 11 straight in the Windy City. These teams meet again on the Frozen Tundra on Christmas Day, so maybe Chicago doesn't want to blow them out. Another 3-point win is all that ... Heck, Chicago doesn't even need to win this one.
Prediction: Bears, 15-10.

Houston (1-10) at Baltimore (3-8), 1:00 p.m.
The Baltimore press says their team has been ravaged by injuries. They only wish. That would be the only explanation why they're 3-8. We in New England can tell you what a real injury-ravaged team looks like, and we're still 6-5. There's an outside shot that Ed Reed and/or Ray Lewis will play in this one. I don't think they'll matter that much. Even with all their belly-aching, Baltimore should be able to hold off Houston; but if Houston can beat anybody, it's probably Baltimore. Both coaches should lose their jobs at season's end. Houston has done absolutely nothing to make me believe they're going to do anything in this game.
Prediction: Ravens, 19-13.

Jacksonville (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7), 1:00 p.m.
Trap Game Alert! Trap Game Alert! Jacksonville has just lost their star quarterback for at least a month, they sqeaked past an inferior team on the road last week, they have Indianapolis staring them square in the face next week followed by three patsies. And this week's trip to Cleveland, and the Dog Pound looks like a big ol' bear trap. This, folks, is the definition of a trap game. If one thing prevents that it's knowing that with Bryon Leftwich on the bench, you have virtually no chance of beating Indianpolis, so you better win this one. This could be Romeo Crennel's chance to salvage the season for Cleveland. There's maybe only one or two more possible wins on the schedule after this, so better get while the getting is good. I'm almost tempted to give Cleveland the nod in this one. If Reuben Droughs can keep up his pace ...
Prediction: Jaguars, 16-9.

Minnesota (6-5) at Detroit (4-7), 1:00 p.m.
The Fords are idiots. Justice would be the Lions losing the rest of their games and the fans not buying tickets next year. Actually, I wonder how we could make the Super Bowl a bust for them this year?
Prediction: Vikings, 27-19.

Tampa Bay (7-4) at New Orleans (3-8) in Baton Rouge, LA, 1:00 p.m.
Tampa needs the game to keep pace with Atlanta and Carolina. New Orleans would like to win for pride. I just don't think that's going to be enough right now. Tampa is at Carolina and at New England the next two weeks, so they better grab W's while they can. They have the league's No. 2 defense, which won't make it any easier for the team leading the league in bad luck.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 34-17.

Tennessee (3-8) at Indianapolis (11-0), 1:00 p.m.
Remember about 5 years ago when this would have been a great game?
Prediction: Colts, 38-9.

Arizona (3-8) at San Francisco (2-9), 4:05 p.m.
Will San Francisco really try to win this game? Will Arizona? Will anyone keep score? Arizona is certainly a better team with better stats behind them. San Franciso is at home, where they are 2-4. Arizona beat Frisco, 31-14, in Mexico City on Oct. 2.
Prediction: Cardinals, um, 18-15.

Washington (5-6) at St. Louis (5-6), 4:05 p.m.
Is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to be another of the "Who is this guy?" St. Louis quarterbacks that suddenly takes the world by storm like a Denver running back? St. Louis has the top-rated passing game, but not much of a running game, and their defense is awful. Washington is more or less middle of the pack all the way around, but in the top half overall offensively and defensively. St. Louis is totally dependent on Fitzgerald, and I don't know if he can play like that against someone other than Houston. I'll take the balanced team.
Prediction: Redskins, 28-24.

Denver (9-2) at Kansas City (7-4), 4:15 p.m.
Always a good game, whenever to AFC West teams play, wherever they play. Even better when both teams have winning records and there's something on the line. Should KC win this one and San Diego hold off Oakland, all three will be within a game of each other with 4 games to play. If Denver triumphs, KC is all but toast, and San Diego may have it's chance. KC and San Diego face each other Dec. 24., when Denver plays Oakland. Denver and San Diego meet on Dec. 31. As for this one, both of teams can run the ball. Denver is 2nd in the league with 166 ypg. KC is 4th with 138. Meanwhile, Denver is first against the run, and KC is fifth. What may be more important is that Arrowhead is for Jake Plummer what Gillette had been for Peyton Manning. Plummer is 0-4 there, while Denver is 1-12 in their last 13 December visits to Arrowhead, and where KC has won 16 straight in December. On the season, Denver has scored 13 points more and allowed 40 less. Denver jumped out to a 20-0 lead early in the second quarter when these teams met in Denver in September. Denver is the better team of the two, but that Arrowhead advantage can't be ignored.
Prediction: Broncos, 27-26.

N.Y. Jets at New England, 4:15 p.m.
Please read the stand-alone game preview to be posted soon.
Prediction: Patriots, 34-12.

Oakland (4-7) at San Diego (7-4), 8:30 p.m.
See KC vs. Denver, but for the fact that San Diego is the better team and playing at home. San Diego has scored the most points in this division, and Oakland is the only team to give up more points than they've scored (239-262) -- so much for that great Randy Moss, Joey Porter combo. LaDanian Tomlinson seems to play particularly well against the Black and Silver. San Diego is on a four-game win streak. Oakland is seventh in passing, but they can't run (15th overall offense), and they can't defend either one (27th overall). San Diego is fifth in rushing and ninth passing (sixth overall), while they're second against the run but only 26th against the pass (12th overall).
Prediction: Chargers, 33-16.

Monday, Dec. 5
Seattle (9-2) at Philadelphia (5-6), 9:00 p.m.
Seattle is only 3-2 on the road, but Philly is an embarrassing 1-5 at home. Several weeks ago, this was still a marquis matchup. Now, outside of a few Philadelphia diehards, not many are counting on Seattle leaving the City of Brotherly Love without 10 wins. These teams haven't met in almost exactly 3 years. There's nothing you can take from that game. None of Philly's stats seem to matter much with the turmoil they've been through the last month or so. Seattle has allowed only three rushing touchdowns all season. I wouldn't be surprised if Philly puts up a fight, but I just don't seem them posing a real threat.
Prediction: Seahawks, 26-10.