Game Preview: Week 14, Patriots @ Buffalo

If the New England Patriots (7-5) beat the 4-8 Buffalo Bills and 5-7 Miami loses to 8-4 San Diego, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions will have wrapped up the AFC East Division and guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs.

New England has won three of four, after alternating wins and losses for the first half of the season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is on a five of six slide, that includes the Bills loss in Foxboro, 21-16, after leading that game most of the way.

There have been more indications these teams are heading in opposite directions, and the news is generally good for New England.

The Patriots are coming off a 16-3 win over the New York Jets. While the final score belies the flow of the game, the Patriots have been able to put away poor teams in the last few years as they were unable to do last Sunday. Still, it was an overall dominating performance, one of the best this season.

Buffalo is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 loss at Miami after taking a 21-0 first quarter lead. They allowed a field goal in the second, scored a safety in the third, and then gave up 21 in the fourth. The defense collapsed, the offense was inept, and the team fell into turmoil.

The Patriots have kept the injury report well-stocked, but it's fairly obvious that the injuries are not all in one major unit, and the injuries are far less serious than they were earlier in the season. Every week, some players go on, some come off, but more play ever week.

And, they're playing better. The defensive line has been playing at increasing levels, approaching performances of last season. The linebackers, as a unit, are starting to revert to form, and even the defensive backfield has shown some improvement. Now, don't get too excited, the defensive backfield will not be as good as last year, even in the playoffs, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Back to today's game.

The offense should be playing better as Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk continue to work their way back. Patrick Pass and Heath Evans have been downgraded from questionable to out for today's game. The receivers are recovering as well, and the tight ends are coming into their own, though Daniel Graham will be out today. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and the Pats are going to need to fill a big hole as Nick Kaczur has been downgraded to out. Hard to believe that that's good news, but there it is.

The Bills, while not suffering any major injuries, have lost one of their biggest weapons for Sunday's game. Wide receiver Eric Moulds was suspended without pay by the Bills for conduct detrimental to the team. Head coach Mike Mularkey confirmed that wide receiver Sam Aiken will start in place of 10-year veteran Moulds.

“I’m not going to elaborate on the reasons why," Mularkey said. "I know it’s an interest to the fans but on behalf of Eric and our team I don’t think it benefits anybody to talk about this thing anymore.”

Buffalo's starting running back Willis McGahee also missed practice with an undisclosed illness, but is expected to play.

A lot has been made of New England's inability to score in the red zone. That has actually improved over the last few games. But Buffalo has had even more frustration.

The Bills have scored touchdowns in just 12 of their 32 red zone trips (37.5%) this season. But over their last four games, Buffalo has managed just two touchdowns and two field goals -- to go with three turnovers -- in 10 red zone efforts.

The Patriots have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams, the only loss being the 31-0 in Buffalo debacle to start the 2003 season five days after the Patriots released Lawyer Milloy and Buffalo signed him. Still, upstate New York, like all foreign territory in the AFC East, has posed its challenges to New England. Despite the last few "dynasty" years of routs, the games there are usually very close (12-9 in 2001, 13-10 in 2000, 17-7 loss in 1999, 13-10 loss in 1998).

Also, Buffalo has won four consecutive home games against division opponents, its longest streak since winning 17 in a row from 1988-1992. None of those four were against New England. At this point, Buffalo, which is just barely hanging on to a mathematical possibility of a playoff spot, is looking to next year and finds its best role to be that of spoiler -- specifically for New England.

The Patriots are 3-3 on the road, while the Bills are 4-2 at home.

Both teams have horribly ranked defenses. The Bills, whose defense has been highly ranked the last few years, is dismal: 31st against the run, allowing 140.3 yards per game. They're better against the pass, ranked 12th, allowing just 191.8 ypg. That leaves them 26th overall.

New England is just about the opposite, ranked 31st against the pass (255.4 ypg), and 17th against the run (112.3 ypg), making them 29th overall.

Fortunately, the offensive numbers are more disparate. The Patriots are 3rd passing with 263.2 ypg -- Tom Brady leads all quarterbacks with 3,301 yards -- but just 88.7 ypg (27th) rushing. That latter number should pick up if Dillon remains healthy. The Patriots schedule was loaded with run stoppers early in the season, but far less so in these last few games. Overall, New England is eighth.

The Bills are 18th rushing, (107.7 ypg) and 29th passing (140.8 ypg). They're 29th overall. Bad for them. Good for New England.

The weather calls for temps around 30 and snow showers and a brisk 16 mph wind, wind chills around 20. Passing may be difficult, despite Brady's rifle arm. The Patriots are going to want to take their revamped running game and Buffalo's front seven. Brady has shown a propensity to play well in Buffalo with the wind at his back, so which team has the wind when could be important.

Buffalo's best chance is going to be home-field advantage and turnovers. It's a mystery how second-year quarterback J.P. Losman plays in the Buffalo winds. The Bills third best bet might be biding their time until they have the wind and hoping Losman can take advantage of the endlessly depleted New England secondary.

The Patriots have been ridiculously on the short side of the turnover battle all season. There has been the slightest improvement over the last few games, but that improvement has to increase dramatically if this team is to go anywhere past the end of the regular season. Today would be a good time to show some improvement.

That goes for putting the ball actually in the end zone. New England has been futilely Drew Bledsoe-like all season, driving from 20 to 20 and settling for field goal after field goal. Fortunately, the defense has been holding up its end (except for the turnovers), and now the offense has to show that it's playoff ready.

Prediction: Patriots, 27-17.

Kevin Harlan has your play-by-play on CBS (Channel 4 locally) and Randy Cross is your analyst. There is no scheduled sideline reporter. As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and the Patriots No. 2 all-time leading scorer Gino Cappelletti.

Bill Carollo's crew officiates today's game. This is the crew that allowed the 52-second discrepancy in the fourth quarter of the Patriots-Steelers game in Week 3. New England eventually won that game in the closing seconds on an Adam Vinatieri field goal. The discrepancy had no real effect on the game, but everyone made a big deal about it. Expect Randy Cross to bring it up at least once.