Week 17 Picks

Updated, Jan. 1 @ 12:45 p.m.
Previously updated, Dec. 31 @ 8:00 p.m.

Well, here we are. Our trek together began in the dog days of Summer: Aug. 3. The Pulpit opened for business, preaching to a lonely choir. Our congregation has grown, but many a heathen still reside in Pittsburgh, and in Cincinnati, and in Indianapolis, and in Denver. Yea, we're still approaching the depths of Winter. And in the Third Millennium, when the flakes are down, there has been the One true Team.

But before we can conduct our pilgrimage to the Promised Land, there remains one last bit of business to attend to, this matter of Week 17, the last in line, the most unpredictable of the predictable. It's unpredictable because there's no telling how teams will approach their games. Teams that have playoff seeds locked may half-step through this last weekend. Teams that are in the Reggie Bush sweeps may or may not put in their best efforts to win. All the teams in the middle that have nothing to play for may play like they have nothing to play for. You just won't know until gametime, and sometimes even then.

Saturday, Dec. 31
Denver (12-3) at San Diego (9-6), 4:30 p.m.
Here's exactly what I'm talking about. Denver has already locked up a first-round bye and cannot gain home field advantage over Indianapolis, so this game doesn't mean much. San Diego has been eliminated from the playoffs, so this game hardly means anything. So will either team risk injury to their key players? Will either team put up a legitimate fight if the other team starts to impose its will? Denver will enter the playoffs on a 4-game winning streak if San Diego folds. Marty Schottenheimer teams usually don't fold until they get in the playoffs. (No, no. That's not right. Put down the flamethrowers, Charger fans.) Actually, I think San Diego plays them tough, and in a close game entering the second half, Denver packs up, content with the No. 2 seed, and Schotties' boys win going away.
Prediction: Chargers, 31-14.

N.Y. Giants (10-5) at Oakland (4-11), 8 p.m.
New York needs a win to secure the NFC East and a first-round home game next week, so this game means something to them. It means nothing except possibly Norv Turner's job to Oakland. The Black and Silver are in shambles. I think you'll see a new coach there next year. I bet Al Davis was wishing Baltimore would fire Brian Billick, and then they'd bring in Terrell Owens. Whatever. I doubt Oakland is going to do Turner any favors, and since they're all getting paid anyway ...
Prediction: Giants, 42-13.

Sunday, Jan. 1
Arizona (5-10) at Indianapolis (13-2), 1 p.m.
Indy's defense is a little banked up. Star wideout Marvin Harrison is going to be wearing some kind of cast on his hand with a fractured bone. The game is meaningless in so many ways. Arizona has no reason even to show up. Marc Bulger is out, so Cade McCown will be calling signals. Indy will probably want to support coach Tony Dungy in the first game after his son's funeral, win this last home game and not enter the playoffs on an 0-3 run.
Prediction: Colts, 35-19.

Baltimore (6-9) at Cleveland (5-10), 1 p.m.
Baltimore has been playing better than Cleveland as of late. Baltimore's owner already said he expects Billick back next season. The Cleveland fans may want this one more than the team. However, I think Romeo Crennel can convince his players that they're auditioning for their jobs, so they might show up to play. The only other thing possibly at stake is draft sequence and maybe a couple players' performance bonuses. No one else really cares.
Prediction: Browns, 10-9.

Buffalo (5-10) at N.Y. Jets (3-12), 1 p.m.
Please, make it stop. New York (the state) ends up with only 1 of 3 winning teams. The green team has a shot at a really good draft pick, and I doubt either of these teams will alter that.
Prediction: Bills, 24-10.

Carolina (10-5) at Atlanta (8-7), 1 p.m.
This one means a lot to Carolina. Win and they're in. It means a lot to Atlanta too. They can play spoiler to a division rival and regain a little pride. They're at home, and the fans will want revenge. Michael Vick is still trying fruitlessly to prove he's a legitimate quarterback. Carolina, a preseason favorite of many a talking head to win the Super Bowl, is in the verge of elimination. Desperation is a wonderful motivating factor.
Prediction: Panthers, 24-21.

Cincinnati (11-4) at Kansas City (9-6), 1 p.m.
This is the game of the week, if only for the fact that both teams have something riding on it. Cincinnati has less riding on it -- the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed in the AFC. Kansas City is still hanging on to thin hopes that they beat Cincy and Pittsburgh loses to lowly Detroit. There are reports that KC coach Dick Vermeil will retire at the end of the season, which could be today. Does Kansas City have the horses to beat Cincy? Yes. Do they have the motivation to win a big one for Vermil? Yes. Can Cincy hold off Larry Johnson? No. Can they win in December in Arrowhead? No. Do they keep the No. 3 seed? No.
Prediction: Chiefs, 33-24.

Detroit (5-10) at Pittsburgh (10-5), 1 p.m.
Does Kansas City make the playoffs? No.
Prediction: Steelers, 41-10.

Miami (8-7) at New England (10-5), 1 p.m.
On NFL Countdown, Steve Young noted that San Diego followed the blueprint laid out by New England how to pressure Peyton Manning and beat Indy -- not that San Diego designed the blueprint. Nice job, Steve.
Prediction: Patriots, 23-20.

New Orleans (3-12) at Tampa Bay (10-5), 1 p.m.
Tampa needs to win and they're at home. New Orleans just wants to go home, finally, wherever that is. It's the end to a horrible, heroic, empathetic season. By the way, Tampa already clinched a playoff spot, but a win earns the division crown and a home playoff game.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 27-14.

Seattle (13-2) at Green Bay (3-12), 1 p.m.
The only reason Seattle has reason to risk anyone is to get Shaun Alexander the touchdown record. Coach Mike Holmgren said the starters will be replaced "liberally," whatever that means. He also said he wants Alexander get the record. Alexander is now less than 50 yards behind Tiki Barber for the season rushing title, after Barber reeled off another 203 yards last night against Oakland. Green Bay is better off staying put in the race for the No. 1 draft pick, but will they actually try to win for some reason? Can they even beat a really good team that's not trying?
Prediction: Seahawks, 17-13.

Houston (2-13) at San Francisco (3-12), 4:05 p.m.
Next to the Cincy-KC matchup, this is probably the most intriguing game of the day because of the draft implications. Can Houston win a game they don't want to on the road? Can San Francisco play bad enough to lose at home to such a miserable team? As Homer would say, "They're the worst sucks of the suckiest sucks that ever sucked." Reminiscent of the New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Colts "Stuper Bowl" of the 1981.
Prediction: 49ers, 2-0.

Tennessee (4-11) at Jacksonville (11-4), 4:05 p.m.
Meaningless game for everyone. Byron Leftwich won't be playing, but David Garrard is 3-1 as a starter in relief. Steve McNair is not playing either. Has Tennessee done enough to save Jeff Fischer's job? Or is he saved by Tennessee's disastrous salary-cap problems?
Prediction: Jaguars, 13-6.

Chicago (11-4) at Minnesota (8-7), 4:15 p.m.
You know what's funny? Minnesota made the playoffs last year with an 8-8 record. If they beat Chicago today in a meaningless game, they could end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. That's funny, eh, Mike Tice? That would be a fitting end to this ludicrous season. I still say momentum is important, but I have a feeling Chicago, who has a boatload of injuries already, may not even put in an effort, which is why they'll lose their first playoff game and prove that Lovie Smith is not the coach of the year, even though he'll win, much like Dick Jauron did with the Bears a couple years ago.
Prediction: Vikings, 27-10.

Washington (9-6) at Philadelphia (6-9), 4:15 p.m.
Win-and-in Washington should be able to beat a shambles of a team that lost to Arizona last week.
Prediction: Redskins, 28-17.

St. Louis (5-10) at Dallas (9-6), 8:30 p.m.
If Washington and Carolina win, which they should, it should be over for Dallas by the time this game starts. Still, they're playing St. Louis. Dallas could be 10-6 and out of the playoffs. You know, I remember when 8-8 was playoff contending in this conference.
Prediction: Cowboys, 31-27.

Navigating the Dangerous Sportsblog Waters

When I started this little project and erected the pulpit, I said that one of the things I would comment upon would be sports journalism, and in this faux golden age of technology, there are a lot of false prophets out chasing profits with little or no regard to journalistic integrity and ethics.

Most of these heathens are bloggers, who have no training, but stringent agendas. Some of them are the careless long-timers on the local evening news and have long forgotten their oaths.

Legitimate journalistic blogging is a tough gig. Everyone makes mistakes, and most of us don’t have editors – legitimate editors – to catch the err of our ways. Most bloggers have agendas, most have no journalism backgrounds, most have no clue about journalistic ethics or integrity, a vast majority have never taken the silent vow to uphold those ethics, and most of them don’t really care.

A lot of them will say this or that about their First Amendment rights while not knowing a thing about the First Amendment or what it really says. As long as they air their views and bring you like sheep to the slaughter (not my flock), they mostly want notoriety more than anything.

I’ve struggled with the dilemma of naming or leaving anonymous the perpetrator of what may seem to most a harmless error. We have mainstream meatheads making marvelous mistakes, and it’s almost impossible to call them out on all of them. To point the finger at some guy who does this as a hobby, even if it’s an 8-year hobby, might seem elitist.

On the other hand, this is a serious business. When I was a professional journalist, our reputation based on integrity was everything. Readers come to the blogs (and they come in droves during a time when newspaper after newspaper loses readership) to read a point of view alternative to the mainstream media, or to read the words of the rising star writer who never got his break on the professional circuit. You shouldn’t have to come to the blogs and wonder if the information you’re getting is accurate. And for that reason, I must be the keeper of the Grail. I must act on your behalf.

Musn't I?

I must. But I have decided not to throw the writer under the bus. Not yet, anyway. Said writer was recapping the top 10 Boston sports stories of the year. He was lauding Bill Belichick for the phenomenal coaching job he's done this year. He said the Patriots were 5-5 and are currently on a five-game winning streak.

Which is all great, except that it's not true. The Patriots were 4-4 when they stopped alternating wins and losses. Then they won two in a row to go to 6-4, lost one to 6-5, and won four straight to get to 10-5 -- not five straight ... not yet.

So that's the big freakin' deal, right? Just a tiny little mistake, right? Why do I care?

I'll tell you why I care, because it's wrong. And not only is it wrong, it's not that tough to verify. I'm assuming, the writer being a blogger, that he has access to the Internet. You can start with Patriots.com. Then there's NFL.com, ESPN.go.com, CNNSI.com, CBSSportsLine.com and probably a dozen more (including PatsPulpit).

The information is easily accessible in a matter of seconds. It's not like when New England played Pittsburgh in Week 3, and Belichick said you could throw the history out the window, and he said something about 1947, and I spent a couple hours trying to verify beyond the shadow of a doubt if he was making it up or if he really knew. This is stuff that just happened, and you can't be so nonchalant about it.

You can't survive for real in this business working off memory. It's fallible. You have to check your facts. I do, constantly. Which is why I know you come here. Because I give it to you straight, and I give it to you accurately. You want the real deal, and this is it.

OK, while I'm throwing bombs, I might as well blow up Scott Zolak because of his statements on the 5th Quarter on Monday night following the Pats-Jets game. Zolak said he'd rather the Patriots play Jacksonville in the first round because David Garrard is their quarterback.

By that time, Byron Leftwich had already been cleared to practice and it was fairly common knowledge that he expects to start in the first round of the playoffs, if not this weekend. Bob Neumeier was all over it, but Zolak insisted. Maybe he knows something we don't, but I think he got caught with his pants down.

Argh. Just for the heck of it: John Dennis, Dale Arnold and Butch Stearns -- two guys with two first names and one guy with none -- they stink.

Coach of the Year, MVP, and Other Awards

Stay tuned, Pats fans. All this and more heads your way next week after the conclusion of Week 17.

There's certainly going to be lots to discuss, because our team is heading back to the playoffs, seeking an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title -- and every team is going to take their shot to kill the kings!

Buckle in, boys and girls. It's going to be a thrilling ride. It's going to be like Space Mountain, Mission: Space, the Test Track, and Dinosaur all rolled into one!

(I'm not hyping that too much, Am I?)

Bruschi Questionable; Pats-Fins Injury Report

OK, you got me. There's nothing new here (hint: there really is) that you probably already haven't heard or read elsewhere.

The primary concern of Patriots Nation is Tedy Bruschi's calf injury. I wish I could tell you something new, something different, something positive. I have nothing. My question, which I think I can also answer is: Is it an injury to the calf muscle or is it a bone bruise?

The answer is probably an injury to the calf muscle. A bone bruise probably would have been classified as a "lower leg injury." You know how the Patriots like to be precise without telling you anything. (A lot of people say Bill Belichick never tells you anything, but he often tells a lot if you know what to listen for.)

So, OK, it's a calf muscle injury. What's that mean?

Well, according to sportsinjuryclinic.net, there are two types of calf muscle injuries: Intra-muscular and Inter-muscular.

An intra-muscular calf injury means the muscle has torn within the surrounding protective sheath. This means any bleeding may stop early because of the pressure of the sheath, but that excess fluids cannot naturally drain from the area, possibly inhibiting healing. "The result is considerable loss of function and pain which can take days or weeks to recover." Recovery time is marked as "days or weeks." Observable bruising is not likely.

An inter-muscular calf injury means that the sheath may have torn with the muscle, which allows bleeding longer. However, recovery is often faster because blood and fluids can flow away from the wound through the tear in the sheath. Bruising is likely.

Now, in addition, there are also three grades of injury. Grade 1 being the least severe. The symptoms are that you can walk properly, there is limited swelling, and you should have a full range of motion. Treatment consists of rest, ice, compress and elevate (RICE).

Grade 2 says you cannot walk properly, compression causes pain, swelling exists, you have limited range of movement. Treatment includes RICE and recommended use of crutches for 3 to 5 days.

Grade 3 says inability to walk properly without crutches, bad swelling, compression will cause a bulge in the muscle. Treatment includes RICE (with rest from 3 to 12 weeks), extended use of crutches, etc.

All grades recommend a rehabilitation program.

With this in our information banks, I think we can deduce that Bruschi probably has a Grade 1 injury. He couldn't walk off the field, but with immediate treatment, he was able to leave the facility limping, without crutches and with no visible compression wrap on the calf.

The average person probably could not recover that quickly, but remember that Bruschi is a fantastically conditioned athlete and he has some of the best athletic trainers and sports medicine experts at his disposal. I also don't expect Bruschi, Belichick or anyone else would have had Bruschi limp out to the bus as a show knowing that it would inhibit healing two weeks before the playoffs.

Where else do you get analysis like this?

Draw your own conclusions. I think Bruschi would probably be able to play this week in an emergency. I would expect, like most others, that he will roam the sidelines and prepare for Wild Card Weekend. And I hope someone tells him to sit on the bench, for Pete's sake.

Here's the rest of the uninteresting injury report:

Miami Dolphins
QUESTIONABLE
Ronnie Brown (RB) Ankle

New England Patriots
QUESTIONABLE
Tedy Bruschi (ILB) Calf
PROBABLE
Tom Brady (QB) Shoulder
Corey Dillon (RB) Calf
Heath Evans (FB) Shoulder
Christian Fauria (TE) Foot
Daniel Graham (TE) Shoulder
Jarvis Green (DE) Shoulder
Artrell Hawkins (CB) Thigh
Bethel Johnson (WR) Knee
Nick Kaczur (T) Shoulder
Patrick Pass (FB) Hamstring
Asante Samuel (CB) Head

Pats 31, Jets 21: Week 16 Comment and Analysis

About two days after I wrote my pregame to the Pats-Jets discussing the importance of momentum heading into the playoffs, Phil Simms wrote on NFL.com how it's not that important, and he used his N.Y. Giants 1991 Super Bowl XXV win over Buffalo on a Scott Norwood missed field goal as proof. Phil, it's a general theory, not an ultimate truth. Of course, there are flukes and "one-offs" -- like if Simms ends up as a 2006 finalist for NFL Hall of Fame election.

Anyway, the New England Patriots (10-5) mounted additional momentum in a 31-21 total dismantling of the hapless New York Jets (3-12). The only words truly appropriate to describe what the Patriots did to the Jets are not appropriate for publishing in this forum. Think Bobby Trippe in "Deliverance."

Thirty-eight yards allowed in the first half? Five offensive drives of 11 plays or more, four of them taking up 6:37 to 9:24 of game clock? Just those four drives took 31 minutes -- more than half the game. I'm hoping you read the other story and saw all the stats, so I don't have to go over all that again.

OK, so it was only the Jets. But we all know that the Patriots have never swept the division (don't we?) and our division rivals almost always plays us tough, especially in their own stadiums, and, you know, the "dynasty is dead." So the fact that New England is a snowy home date away from going 6-0 in the AFC East after destroying a division opponent should tell you something about this team.

For anyone who has seen the last four Patriots games has seen the progression from merely beating the Jets in Gillette to hammering Buffalo in upstate New York to shutting out one of the alleged NFC elite Tampa Bay to Monday's rematch with the Jets. I keep trying to paint a picture to help explain just how profoundly New England battered the Jets.

I mean, for all intent and purpose, the only first-half play that was positive for the Jets was Ty Law's interception for a touchdown. One play in half a game. No first downs. No big gains. No impressive defensive stands. And by the time the Jets did anything offensively -- meaning before they even gained a first down, it was 28-7, and New England was on cruise control.

As a matter of fact, that first down came on another cheesy roughing the quarterback penalty called on Richard Seymour, the second similar call against him. Apparently, Seymour will be unable to legally sack a quarterback unless he tackles him by the ankle.

The bottom line is, outside of the bottom line (the final score), this may have been the most lopsided game the Patriots have played in this 5-year run.

Still, they have yet to play the elusive "Perfect Game." Most people say it's impossible. I say it's out there somewhere, but it wasn't Monday night.

The Patriots still showed a propensity to give up big returns, officially 20.8 yards on four returns, but really 27.7 on three, including a long of 39. Going back to Super Bowl XXXI against Green Bay, the Patriots had a good kicking and punting game, mediocre return game, horrible coverage. The only consistent part of their special teams has been Vinatieri's kicking game.

Over the years, they've done much better on returns (remember a couple touchdowns during the 2001 run?) but that has sunk a little as of late. Punting is as good as ever with John Miller, whom I've previously compared to pro golfers, and he's that good. But coverage is almost as bad as ever, despite a couple decent years and a multiple Pro Bowl selection in Larry Izzo.

Along with the defensive secondary, it one area that demands improvement heading into the playoffs. Field position is up there with turnovers and time of possession as a critical statistic. Keep giving your opponent a short field, and good teams will make you pay.

I've made a lot of the improvement in defense over the last several weeks, and I noted how the outstanding play of the defensive line doesn't translate into statistics for those players. Here's proof with a caveat: Bruschi has 63 tackles in just 9 games, ranking him 4th on the team, just 1 behind Ty Warren and 3 behind Eugene Wilson.

The proof is that a linebacker has 1 less tackle in about half a season than the lineman with the most tackles has in the whole season. The caveat is that the linebacker is Bruschi, who you expect to have excellent numbers. But those numbers are fantastic, especially since another linebacker, Mike Vrabel, has led the team in tackles six times this season.

Of course, if raving pinhead John Dennis of WEEI had his way, that's 63 tackles less qualified players would have had to make, and it's questionable the Patriots would be 10-5 today. Nice call, John.

Now there's Bruschi's injury, allegedly to his calf. I had my money on a bone bruise, which could be the case. You never really know with this team. The good news is that he left the locker room without aid. He was limping, but he had no cast or wrap and wasn't using crutches.

Like most people, I think he'll sit out Miami unless there's an emergency, and losing the game isn't an emergency, even though losing the game would be detrimental to the team's psyche. But, by emergency, I mean that all the other linebackers get hurt, and he has to go in. If that happens, we'll have more than a loss and the team's psyche to worry about.

After that, he may still not be 100 percent. Who the Pats face Wild Card Weekend may dictate whether Bruschi starts or mans the sideline unless necessary. If they reach the Divisional Playoffs, Bruschi will probably be close to 100 percent, and even if not, will play anyway. Obviously, we'll know more as each game approaches.

Postgame, Week 16: Patriots 31, Jets 21

Updated Dec. 29, 12:01 a.m.

The New England Patriots (10-5) won their fourth straight game, dominating opponent after opponent, this time surgically dismantling the New York Jets (3-12) before their home crowd, 31-21, in ABC's Monday Night Football farewell.

Linebacker Mike Vrabel made two touchdown receptions, giving him six career touchdowns on six career receptions, and the Patriots garnered a time of possession edge of a disgusting 43:21 to 16:39. New England rushed the ball a mind boggling 50 times in what can only be called "forcing the issue" as head coach Bill Belichick said the Patriots would "establish the run" prior to the game.

The final score in no way represented the flow of the game, as New York got 7 points on a Ty Law interception return in the first quarter to tie the game. Otherwise, New England utterly and completely shut down the New York offense, allowing just 38 yards in the first half.

Coupled with Cincinnati's 37-27 loss to Buffalo on Saturday, New England pulled within a game of the third seed in the AFC playoffs, a far cry from their 4-4 record of late October that prompted some talking heads to announce a premature termination of the Patriots dynasty. A Patriot win over Miami this Sunday and a Bengal loss in Kansas City will raise New England to the third seed and drop Cincy to the fourth.

The New England defense forced a three-and-out on the game's opening possession, and handed the ball over to the offense that ran perhaps the most methodical and calculated drive in the NFL this year, perhaps of all time. Starting from their own 33, the Patriots marched downfield in 13 plays, marking off five first downs. With the exception of a Patrick Pass run up the middle for no gain, every play made positive yardage, everything between 2 and 8 yards, except a 20-yard pass from Tom Brady to Deion Branch, and Vrabel's first touchdown catch, a 1-yarder from Brady.

The Pats looked to put it away early, forcing a turnover on the Jets next play from scrimmage as Asante Samuel picked off a Brooks Bollinger pass at the Jets 49 and returned it to the 34. Samuel was injured on the play and did not return, but the Patriots were sitting pretty. But Law intercepted Brady two plays later to give the Jets their single first-half highlight.

While the Patriot defense dominated, the offense was sluggish for the rest of the quarter, going three-and-out twice, the latter time a costly one as linebacker Tedy Bruschi injured his left leg on punt coverage. Bruschi did not return either, and speculation on the extent of his injury has been rampant. However, he left the locker room limping, but under his own power with no cast or crutches.

The offense caught fire in the second quarter, launching two more surgical campaigns of 11 and 13 plays covering a total of 114 yards and leaching 11:19 off the game clock. In the first 41-yard drive, the biggest play (minus a 15-yard face mask penalty on the Jets) was a 9-yard Brady to David Givens pass to start the drive. Except a 1-yard Dillon loss, every other play gained 1 to 8 yards, including the culminating 2-yard pass from Brady to Vrabel.

The second drive, a 73-yard masterpiece that included 6 first downs, included Brady passes of 12 yards to Givens, 13 to Troy Brown and 14 to tight end Ben Watson. Once again, there were no negative yardage plays, and only two incomplete passes. Brady converted a 4th-and-1 with a quarterback sneak, and Dillon capped the drive with a 1-yard dive off the right end. Dillon finished with 77 yards on 26 carries.

The Pats virtually sealed the game with yet another drive executed with military precision, taking the second-half opening kickoff 74 yards in 15 plays, torching 9:24 off the game clock. Like the previous drives, most plays went for less than 10 yards, and all but two gained real estate. On the third play of the drive, a 3rd-and-10, Brady hit Branch for 22 yards with Law in coverage. Dillon also reeled off the longest run for any player, a 10-yard scamper around the left end. The third key play was a 4th-and-3 conversion, Brady connecting with Christian Fauria for 5 yards. Dillon capped the drive with a 1-yard plunge.

The starters remained in the game for a final 12-play, 48-yard drive that chewed up another 6:37 and resulted in an Adam Vinatieri field goal. Brady ended up with 185 yards on 18 of 29 passing with two TDs and a pick. He connected with eight different receivers, Branch and Kevin Faulk with 4 catches each, Branch leading with 69 yards.

With the score 28-7, the starting defense looked a little vulnerable, allowing the Jets to mount a 14-play, 70-yard drive, but since it also tore 6-plus minutes from the clock, it left New York with too little time to do significant damage down the stretch. Vinnie Testaverde replaced Bollinger late in the game to lead a short touchdown drive against mostly second stringers.

Vrabel ended up leading the Pats with 6 tackles (4 solo, 2 assists) and the sack. It's the sixth time Vrabel has lead the team in tackling. Ty Warren has led twice, as has Ellis Hobbs, and Bruschi. Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison and Monty Beisel each led a week. Vrabel now has more than 100 tackles on the season (103 total, 70 solo), including 4.5 sacks. His solo tackles outnumbers the next best total tackles, Eugene Wilson with 66. Warren (64), Bruschi (63 in just 9 games!) and Rosevelt Colvin (60) round out the top five. Colvin leads the team in sacks with 7. We'll recap at these stats and more next week after the end of the regular season.

It wasn't all good news, even discounting Bruschi's injury. The Patriots allowed an average of 20.8 yards per kickoff return, including a long of 39. One return went for 0 yards, so the other three really averaged 27.7 yards.

New England has now won 18 of their last 19 games starting in December or later. Brady leads the league in passing yardage and has eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark for the first time in his six-year career. He's 291 yards ahead of Carson Palmer heading into the season finale. Brady is likely to play in limited action this week, while Palmer's Bengals are facing Kansas City, who is battling for the last playoff spot in the AFC, which brings us full circle back to the whole seeding discussion.

The Jets host Buffalo (5-10) at 1 p.m. Sunday in a game that only means something if the Jets lose, and that means they could tie for the worst record in the league if 2-13 Houston loses at San Francisco (also 3-12) at 4:05 p.m. New Orleans and Green Bay are also 3-12. The Saints are at Tampa Bay, while Green Bay hosts Seattle. It should be a tremendous anticlimactic battle for the No. 1 draft pick.

New England hosts Miami (8-7) on New Year's Day at 1 p.m. The Patriots beat the Dolphins 23-16 on Nov. 13 in Miami earlier this season. The current forecast calls for snow showers and temps in the high 30s / low 40s with light breezes.

Pats @ Jets open thread: Week 16

The only thing wrapped up under the Patriots tree yesterday was a very nice playoff berth. They can't advance in the seedings or improve their lot otherwise, but they can build momentum and send shivers down the spines of potential opponents.

That can continue tonight with a sound drubbing of the New York Jets at the alcohol-free New Jersey Meadowlands. Fireman Ed is going to be sober, but no more sane.

Let him hear you Patriot Nation!

GO PATRIOTS!

(Post your comments here throughout the game. Let's get some good discussion going.)

Game Preview: Week 16, Patriots vs. N.Y Jets

The good news is that most teams that go deep in the playoffs go in with a head of steam, a nice streak of games that they play well and put up W's. Let's have a look at the playoff-bound teams and their recent history.

Let's start with the formerly prohibitive favorite Indianapolis Colts. Well, this is almost exactly how you don't want to do it: a long winning streak followed by an emotional loss on your home field to a good team, followed by a half-hearted effort in a road loss to a good team, followed by mailing it in to a lousy team at home, followed by an off week. Add coach Tony Dungy's personal tragedy of losing his son this past week, and it bodes ominously for the Colts.

Denver is doing it as well as their schedule allows right now. The Broncos are on a three-game winning streak, but only against the likes of Baltimore, Buffalo and Oakland. Before that, they lost a close one to Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, and before that, they beat Philadelphia, Oakland, the N.Y. Jets and Dallas -- hardly league elites, even if Dallas makes the playoffs. Denver wraps up the regular season next week at San Diego, which may or may not be a legitimate test, now that the Chargers are out. Still, a 4-game streak, if they win, is momentum.

Cincinnati, who hasn't had the most brutal schedule this season, lost this week to Buffalo -- at home -- after beating up Detroit and barely squeaking by Cleveland at home. The Bengals are at Kansas City next week, and the Chiefs still have something to play for, so that will be a good indication where Cincinnati's head might be.

Jacksonville is a wild card (pun not intended until the last split-second) with the injury to Byron Leftwich. Their last game against a tough opponent was three weeks ago, a loss to Indianapolis, 26-18. Before that was a streak of five wins against lousy and marginal teams. Since Indy, they've beaten San Francisco, 10-9, and Houston, 38-20. Next week, they play Tennessee at home. Jaguars.com says Leftwich could be back for the season finale and almost definitely for the playoffs. That makes the Jags an interesting case.

Pittsburgh lost three in a row to Baltimore, Indianapolis and Cincinnati before reeling off three against Chicago (21-9 at home), Minnesota (18-3 in Minn.) and Cleveland (41-0 in Cleveland). They host Detroit next week, an expected win, putting Pittsburgh in that category of "pretty good run at the finish" category. If Pittsburgh beats Detroit, K.C. is out of it, so I'll skip the Chiefs. They've only been playing well against teams in their own division lately anyway.

In the NFC, Seattle becomes your prohibitive favorite by this week beating the previous prohibitive favorite as part of an 11-game winning streak. The Seahawks travel to the recently powerless frozen tundra, so you can expect Shaun Alexander to break the single-season touchdown record that he tied this week. Seattle is a juggernaut I told you to watch out for about six weeks ago. Everyone's listening now.

After snapping an eight-game winning streak with that 21-9 loss at Pittsburgh, Chicago manhandled Atlanta at home and then hung on to stave off Green Bay, 24-17, on the road. They travel to recently eliminated Minnesota next week. If Mike Tice still has a job, he'll be trying to get his team to make sure he keeps it, so the Vikings just may put up a fight. The outcome of that one tells you how much of a real threat the top scoring defense in the league is.

The N.Y. Giants rather embarrassing loss to Washington sends no signal that they're ready for the playoffs. A three-game winning streak home against Dallas, at Philadelphia and home against Kansas City, all pretty close games, weren't particularly compelling. Before that was a loss to Seattle. The Giants are at Oakland late New Year's Eve, not much of a test, should they survive unscathed.

The next four teams are not guaranteed playoff spots yet.

Win-and-in Tampa Bay has looked pretty good, except for a 13-10 home loss to Chicago four weeks ago and a 28-0 trouncing here at New England last week. There were wins at Baton Rouge and at Carolina in between, and this week, the Bucs eliminated Atlanta from the party with a 27-24 home win. Far from impressive, but if they beat New Orleans next week, which they definitely should, of course, that could give them a bit of a nudge of momentum.

Win-and-in Carolina lost their last three games against contenders: Dallas this week, Tampa Bay two weeks earlier and Chicago three weeks before that. They've beaten some patsies in between. They're at Atlanta next week.

Win-and-in Washington is on a four-game winning streak, having last lost to San Diego, a heart-breaking 23-17 at home. Since then, the Redskins have beaten St. Loius, Arizona, Dallas and the Giants. Not particularly impressive, but it's what they've had to do. The Skins can still win the division by winning in Philly this week and the Giants losing to Oakland. Still, Washington is one of the few NFC teams with significant momentum heading into the tourney.

Finally, Dallas needs to win and for any one of the previous three teams to lose for the Cowboys to make the playoffs. Dallas has lost three of their last five, and even if they beat St. Louis this week and either Tampa, Carolina and Washington loses, the Cowboys don't seem to be much of a threat to go deep.

That leaves us with New England, and as I mentioned earlier this week, the Patriots have positioned themselves perfectly after the NFL's mandated eight-game caning to start the season. All the injured who are coming back are back and nearly 100% healthy. New England is on a three-game streak, having pummeled the Jets, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. If New England finishes strong tonight and next week, they will have as much momentum as anyone except Seattle.

And that brings us to tonight's Monday Night Football swan song. The Patriots (9-5) face the Jets (3-11) in the Meadowlands. The Jets are on the cusp of the Reggie Bush sweepstakes. The Patriots are on the cusp of history. The Jets have divisional pride and Herman Edwards' job to play for. The Patriots have Destiny to play for.

New England dominated New York when the Jets visited Gillette Stadium a few weeks ago. The game was not nearly as close as the 16-3 final score indicated. And this week, the only player listed on the Patriots injury list is Tom Brady, who has been on the list all season with an undisclosed shoulder injury. The Jets have a few injuries, none overly significant, and none that should have a real impact on the game.

The Jets lost seven straight before beating Oakland and then losing to Miami. There will be no beer sales at the Meadowlands tonight. It will interesting to see if (A) the Jets show up, and (B) the fans show up. The Jets are the only team not to score at least 200 points this season (189, followed by Cleveland with 212).

There's very little compelling about this game otherwise. New England will start its starters in preparation for the playoffs. The Patriots will work on the running game, kick return coverage and passing defense, the three problems that have plagued them all season. The running game has improved with the health of the major players, most especially Corey Dillon.

The pass defense, likewise, has improved with the return of players from injuries and the peripheral improvement of the run defense and the pass rush. How to improve the kick return squad, well, that's what Belichick does. He studies film and he finds the little issues that magnify themselves during the course of a game. What he does to solve some of them remains a mystery. Let's just hope he maintains his record here.

I really have nothing else to say.

Prediction: Patriots, 38-12.

Al Michaels has your play-by-play on ABCS (Channel 5 locally) and John Madden is your analyst. This the final broadcast of ABC's Monday Night Football. As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and the Patriots No. 2 all-time leading scorer Gino Cappelletti.

Ed Hochuli's crew officiates today's game. Hochuli's crew is probably the best in the game. Not that they're infallible, but they usually make fewer mistakes.

Pulpit Nominated at Red Reporter; Vote Now

New England Patriots Pulpit has been nominated for Best NFL Blog at RedReporter.com. Thanks to whomever nominated me. There are only seven contenders, and I am thrilled to be among them.

Looks like a few others got an early start though, the Pulpit trails blogs on the Cowboys, Giants and Jets! New Yorkers stuffing the ballot boxes, as usual, right?

If you would like to see the other contenders and cast a vote, go to Red Reporter. Don't forget to tell your friends too.

Thanks again to everyone. Happy Holidays to all, and GO PATRIOTS!

Week 16 Picks

Updated 11:38 am, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2005

Saturday, Dec. 24
Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 17-14.

Buffalo at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Bengals, 38-16.

Dallas at Carolina, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Panthers, 24-10.

Detroit at New Orleans in San Antonio, TX, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Saints, 9-6.

Jacksonville at Houston, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Jaguars, 12-6.

N.Y. Giants at Washington, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Giants, 24-21.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Steelers, 26-24.

San Diego at Kansas City, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Chiefs, 32-30.

San Francisco at St. Louis, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Rams, 24-3.

Tennessee at Miami, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Dolphins, 24-10.

Philadelphia at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Eagles, 16-13.

Indianapolis at Seattle, 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Seahawks, 31-17.

Oakland at Denver, 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Broncos, 35-10.

Updated at 11:38 am, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2005
Sunday, Dec. 25
Chicago (10-4) at Green Bay (3-11), 5 p.m.
Chicago can tie up the division with a win of their own or a Minnesota loss later tonight, but there's no better time than the present -- especially since a win also gives Chicago a first-round bye in the playoffs. Chicago manhandled Atlanta last week and Green Bay, who has pretty much mailed it in, got pounded by Baltimore. No reason to expect the result won't be similar. One team has something important to play for. If anything, Green Bay is playing for Brett Favre's legacy, and no one seems that interested.
Prediction: Bears, 28-9.

Minnesota (8-6) at Baltimore (5-9), 8:30 p.m.
Minnesota still has an outside shot at a playoff berth, even if Chicago wins, so they desperately need to beat Baltimore (and then Chicago in Minnesota next week, and hope Washington and Dallas lose next week). Baltimore is playing for coach Brian Billick's job, which they may have saved last week by pummeling Green Bay. Why they'd want to save his job is a mystery, but there it is. Minnesota was humbled last week, 18-3, by Pittsburgh, ending quarterback Doug Johnson's winning streak. Can Johnson redeem himself against a really good defense? Vikings are 3-4 on the road; Baltimore is 5-2 at home, accounting for all their wins. If Baltimore wins, Minnesota is out, and maybe Mike Tice with them; otherwise, it could be Billick looking for a new job (I'd bet on Oakland, if it comes to it). Hey, maybe they'll both get canned.
Prediction: Vikings, 17-13.

Come back tomorrow for a preview of Monday Night's Game (also to be posted separately).
Monday, Dec. 26
New England at N.Y. Jets, 9 p.m.

Week 15 Picks Review

Saturday, Dec. 17
Tampa Bay (9-4) at New England (8-5), 1:30 p.m.
Prediction: Patriots, 16-10.
Result: Patriots, 28-0.

Kansas City (8-5) at N.Y. Giants (9-4), 5 p.m.
Prediction: Giants, 30-24.
Result: Giants, 27-17.

Denver (10-3) at Buffalo (4-9), 8:30 p.m.
Prediction: Broncos, 38-10.
Result: Broncos, 28-17.

Sunday, Dec. 18
Arizona (4-9) at Houston (1-12), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Cardinals, 17-12.
Result: Texans, 30-19.

Carolina (9-4) at New Orleans (3-10) in Baton Rouge, LA, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Panthers, 27-7.
Result: Panthers, 27-10.

N.Y. Jets (3-10) at Miami (6-7), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Dolphins, 35-13.
Result: Dolphins, 24-20.

Philadelphia (5-8) at St. Louis (5-8), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Rams, 23-17.
Result: Eagles, 17-16.

Pittsburgh (8-5) at Minnesota (8-5), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Steelers, 26-21.
Result: Steelers, 18-3.

San Diego (8-5) at Indianapolis (13-0), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Colts, 31-27.
Result: Chargers, 26-17.

Seattle (11-2) at Tennessee (4-9), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Seahawks, 31-13.
Result: Seahawks, 28-24.

San Francisco (2-11) at Jacksonville (9-4), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Jaguars, 27-9.
Result: Jaguars, 10-9.

Cincinnati (10-3) at Detroit (4-9), 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Bengals, 24-10.
Result: Bengals, 41-17.

Cleveland (4-9) at Oakland, (4-9) 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Raiders, 17-16.
Result: Browns, 9-7.

Dallas (8-5) at Washington (7-6), 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Redskins, 24-23.
Result: Redskins, 35-7.
Note: Pat Kirwin, a columnist on NFL.com, said that if he could give a Christmas gift to a team, one of them would be a pair of veteran offensive linemen, because the Cowboys have given up 16 sacks as they went 1-3 in their last four games.
Don't these people get it yet? The problem isn't the line. The problem is the guy holding onto the ball for 5 seconds behind the line. Thirteen years in the league, and he still hasn't learned. Rock head. As Blake said in Glengarry Glen Ross, "... fire [his] #$%*!#& ass, because a loser is a loser."

Atlanta (8-5) at Chicago (9-4), 8:30 p.m.
Prediction: Bears, 13-10.
Result: Bears, 16-3.

Monday, Dec. 19
Green Bay (3-10) at Baltimore (4-9), 9 p.m.
Prediction: Packers, 14-13.
Result: Ravens, 48-3.
Obviously didn't see that coming. The Ravens barely scored 43 all seaon. (Actually, 171 before this.)

Last week: 13-3.
This week: 11-5.
Season: 145-77 (.653).

Pro Bowl Pats: Seymour's Fourth, Brady's Third

The NFL released rosters Wednesday for the 2006 Pro Bowl in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Feb. 12. Defensive lineman Richard Seymour earned his fourth straight bid, while Tom Brady joined Vito "Babe" Parilli and Drew "Feet of Stone" Bledsoe as Patriot quarterbacks with three selections.

Despite missing four games with a knee injury, Seymour, 26, becomes the first Patriot with four straight Pro Bowl selections since Ben Coates had five from 1994-1998. Seymour hasn't piled up any great stats, but his impact is probably one of the biggest in the Patriots season turnaround. Since returning to the lineup, the Pats run defense has steadily returned to elite status. Coupled with the manpower opponents have to dedicate to Seymour, that has allowed the pass rush to improve; hence, the overall pass defense as well.

Brady, who also made the Pro Bowl in 2001 and 2004 leads the league with 3,888 yards passing, more than 260 yards more than second-place Peyton Manning, who also earned a selection. Brady is on pace to set multiple personal and team bests.

Patriots fullback Patrick Pass, also having a career year, led his position in fan balloting but was overlooked by players and coaches. Several other Patriots having super years, including linebacker Mike Vrabel, placekicker Adam Vinatieri, punter Josh Miller, three-time Pro Bowl special teamer Larry Izzo, and offensive linemen Stephen Neal, Logan Mankins and Nick Kaczur, were all basically ignored by fan and peer alike.

Vrabel's, Vinatieri's and Miller's statistics speak for themselves. Vinatieri and Miller are always tops in their positions, while Vrabel blossomed in the early absense of Tedy Bruschi and others, and held the defense together for several weeks.

But let's look at these offensive linemen. No, let's look at who these linemen have played against: Dwight Freeney (made the Pro Bowl) and Jason Taylor (made the Pro Bowl). Both of these guys are the elite of the league, Freeney recently broke the Indianapolis Colts franchise record for sacks, and neither one of them got so much as a glimpse of Brady throwing past them, depsite the outcomes of particular games. That's just the beginning of a list of top defensive linemen and linebackers that Mankins and Kaczur have protected Brady -- pretty well -- against all season.

As you would expected, head coach Bill Belichick downplayed the importance of Pro Bowl selections.

''Our goal is about winning and that's what we can have some degree of control over, is our performance," he said. ''Everything else that we don't have any control over, there's only so much you can do about it."

And then, he played the ace he always has up his sleeve.

"It is what it is," he said. Again. And rightfully so. Who cares about individual achievements when you can decorate a fourth finger?

By contrast, the Colts had a league-leading seven players selected and several more named first alternates. But that obviously isn't enough for the egomaniacs. When they were initially told they had eight, only to find out a tabulation error dropped tackle Tarik Glenn, they were up in arms.

“I’m a league guy, but this is a bad, bad situation," head coach Tony Dungy said. "They need to tell the whole story and it’s not good."

According to the Associated Press, the simple mistake "led to a lot of outrage."

Of course, this happened before we learned of the death of Dungy's son, and so this has been horribly placed in perspective all too suddenly.

But you see the difference between a two-time defending champion and a group of underachievers. The Patriots for years now have quietly accepted the constant lack of respect, and go out and prove everyone wrong. Other teams loudly protest how great they are and then cough up chicken bones when push comes to shove. I'm jumping the gun here, but can you imagine if the Patriots have another of their runs, and they send only two players to the Pro Bowl, while Indy sends seven or more?

By the way, the Chicago Bears were next with six player selections, five on defense.

Colts Coach Dungy Endures Tragedy

The Indianapolis Colts organization was shocked this morning when the 18-year-old son of head coach Tony Dungy was found dead in a Tampa, Fla., area apartment of what is currently being called a suicide.

Dungy's girlfriend found James Dungy on the floor, not breathing, at 1:30 a.m. A sheriff's deputy performed CPR before an ambulance rushed him to University Community Hospital, where was pronounced dead.

Football becomes irrelevant; and rivalry, insignificant, at such times. The Colts had just lost their perfect season, but were still considered by many to be nearly prohibitive favorites in the Super Bowl. Dungy has left the team indefinitely; assistant coach Jim Caldwell will take his place.

Our New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys head coaches have both suffered losses this season. Bill Belichick's father Steve and Bill Parcells' brother Don both died earlier this year. But I think we can all see -- and feel -- the difference between a grown man losing his father and a grown man losing a son, especially at what is supposed to be a joyous and peaceful time of year.

I wish to extend my condolences to the Dungy family.

You may post a comment to do the same.

Matt Light on IR; Pats, Jets Injury Report

The New England Patriots placed offensive tackle Matt Light on injured reserve earlier today, ending his season and speculation that he would be able to return by the playoffs from an ankle injury suffered on Sept. 25 in a game against Pittsburgh. Light becomes the 10th Patriot placed on injured reserve.

Light, 27, was a starting member of the offensive line in all three Patriots Super Bowl wins. He played in 65 games with 63 starts since being drafted by New England in the second round (48th overall) in the 2001 NFL draft.

Before moving on to the injury report, I just want to point out that when Tom Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe, and Brady played so much better, everyone said, "Well, the offensive line just came together to protect Brady" and "Bledsoe constantly had different personnel on his offensive lines" (except for Bruce Armstrong, of course). I'd like those people to point out all the starting offensive linemen on the Patriots who have been starting at their current position for more than 1 year. Yes. Thanks for playing.

The fact is, and it always had been, Tom Brady makes his offensive line better, probably better than they really are. And Bledsoe make his worse. Much, much worse.

Patriots at Jets Injury Report

Do our eyes deceive us? Can it really be so? The only player on the Patriots injury report is Tom Brady? And he's listed as Probable with a shoulder injury? (Matt Light is listed as being moved to IR, but we know that already.)

That means the dozen or so guys hanging around the list for the last 10 weeks are really all "healthy" now?

I'm sure the other 31 teams didn't notice.

New York Jets
QUESTIONABLE
a FS Oliver Celestin (Ankle)
DE Shaun Ellis (Hamstring)
DT Dewayne Robertson (Thigh)

PROBABLE
RB Derrick Blaylock (Ankle)
MLB Mark Brown (Neck)
T Scott Gragg (Back)
WR Harry Williams (Knee)

Nothing dramatic here, except that every injury listed is one more nail in the Jets coffin for 2005.

Merry Christmas, My Flock

It's the most wonderful time of the year: the NFL Playoffs.

Just two weeks away, the NFL playoffs are the ultimate tournament. But let's digress a little and spend a few words on that other most wonderful time of the year. Yes, it's Christmas, or whatever else you care to recognize and celebrate. Peace on earth. Goodwill toward men. Have a cup of cheer and some razzle-berry dressing. That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown. And as long as we don't have Bledsoe, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

As a writer, I'm tempted like most other writers to contrive some corny NFL/Christmas crossover. Right now, I think we're all happy that we don't have Ebenezer Ekuban Scrooge -- or worse, the Spirit of Christmas Yet to Come -- lurking in the Pulpit or our favorite team's locker room. Maybe I'll try something after we get through the important stuff.

Do You See What I See?

I see a team that I predicted in the preseason would finished 13-3. Normally, you don't predict injuries. Except after John Elway retired and Denver was riding Terrell Davis like he was the incarnation of their logo. I predicted he'd get hurt and Denver would be finished. Some things like that you can see coming.

And you know the Super Bowl champions are going to sustain injuries. Every team is giving them their best shot, and New England had a really tough schedule right out of the gate. But they sustained so many injuries last year, you thought maybe they'd get through this one.

Alas, that was not the case, but it is the case that this team could conceivably end up 11-5, just two games off what would have been considered a torrid record, especially considering their early schedule.

Let's look back to a few things I wrote just before the season started.

"These guys simply like winning, and they're willing to do whatever is necessary to make that happen."

I made a point to mention that they don't have "attitude" or "swagger" like a lot of the posers. It was true then, and it's true now. They just do their jobs, which they love doing. They love playing, and they love winning. If Tedy Bruschi (sorry, John Dennis) isn't pure evidence of that, I don't know what is.

"The loss of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel appeared devastating when they were both evident back in January, but ... Like a predatory chameleon, the Patriots will grow back their coordinator arms or simply redistribute duties to other personnel."

Everyone was flipping out, even halfway through the season, especially when the already battered Patriots took another battering. Some people suggested it was because Weis wasn't calling the plays, or that Eric Mangini (sorry, Dale Arnold) wasn't as good a coordinator as Crennel. It wasn't. Which brings us to ...

"... [I]t appears the ninth ranked defense from last year is on par for a similar performance this season."

Well, not quite. The injuries really took a toll, especially on the defensive secondary, where we all know seven -- SEVEN -- players, including Rodney Harrison, ended up on injured reserve.

So New England's defense is ranked 26th (up from 29th just last week) overall. They're 30th against the pass (31st last week) due to that plague of injuries to the D-backs. Nothing Crennel could have done about it or after it any more than Mangini could.

But the rest of the defense lacked in many key positions, and it was the return of Bruschi and Richard Seymour that began to right the ship. Just 8 weeks ago, the Pats running defense was 27th. Last week, they were 11th. Want to guess what they are this week?

Sixth.

That's right. Sixth. Missing Crennel now?

"The offense should be even better than the seventh ranked squad of last season."

Yes, even with the loss of Weis and no offensive coordinator, I thought New England's offense would be better. Why? Brady had another year under his belt and was just getting better, which has been true -- he's having a career year. Dillon had just finished a career year and looked hungrier and happier than ever. Unfortunately, injuries have dampened the running game. But the two biggest developments were the addition of left tackle Logan Mankins and the return of tight end Ben Watson. I'll let the first 11 games speak for themselves.

The result so far?

Well, they're seventh after being fifth the week before, and that's after a stellar 28-0 trashing of the 3rd ranked scoring defense, 2nd overall. The top eight teams have very little space between them. The Patriots, having the Jets and Dolphins in front of them, should move up by season's end.

Missing Charlie Weis now?

"I see them at 4-2 coming off the bye.... If they can get through Indy at 6-2, it's fairly clear sailing down the stretch..."

After several devastating injuries early on, the Patriots came out of the first six games 3-3 and the first eight 4-4. Obviously, preseason-planned home wins over San Diego and Indianapolis didn't pan out. Otherwise, the record, at it were, speaks for itself.

Do You Hear What I Hear?

More appropriately, did you hear what I heard?

The first thing I heard, Saturday, Dec. 17 at about 1:25 p.m. was the roar of the crowd -- an oddly adrenalized crowd -- at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots were introduced. The next thing I heard was this slightly unnerving pounding noise; and then I realized it was the Patriots pounding Tampa Bay, one of the alleged elite teams, into submission.

And then later that night, around 8:20, I was watching NFL Primetime, and just following the Patriots highlights, I heard this low, almost imperceptible ... voice. It sounded like the cumulative voice of every player on every potentially playoff-bound team, saying "Oh, shi ... They're back."

Indeed, for all the Patriots have gone through, for all it appears the league tried to avoid this, the Patriots are back in position to make a late-season run, and now that they're assured of a home game in the playoffs, who wants to play them? The answer is: NO ONE.

Oh, sure the now imperfect Colts probably still think this is year, but they have to be shaken after losing at home to San Diego, making them vulnerable both there and on the road -- they're going to have a really tough time in Seattle this weekend. Pittsburgh probably wants a third shot New England. Cincinnati wants to "be the man," so you know they want to "beat the man." And now the Cincinnati players have recorded a revision of their 1981 Super Bowl battle cry, "Who Dey Think Gonna Beat Dem Bengals?" Pretty bold for a team that hasn't won a damn thing in 20 years.

But you know they were watching those highlights and were just a little nervous.

Think about it. The league has been watching New England struggle all season, and even when they saw the rest of the AFC East, except the semi-surprising Dolphins, are pretty horrible, the Patriots didn't look like a threat -- even after thrashing Buffalo in the Great White North.

But last week ... so much to worry about. Among all the so-many important injuries have been those to the Pats offensive backfield. Dillon's return a few weeks ago was expected, and he's been marginal. But last week, Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass also played. That means the Pats backfield is back just about fully intact after a season of injuries. Tell me that doesn't scare people.

Do You Know What I Know?

In 2001, the Patriots started 1-3, were 3-3 after six and 4-4 after eight. They ran the table (six games) after losing to eventual Super Bowl opponent St. Louis, finishing the season 11-5. In 2003, they started 2-2 and ran the table from there, part of their phenomenal 21-game winning streak. This year, very similar to 2001 in so many ways, they have the potential to win their last five games heading into the playoffs.

The progress this team has made since emerging from the league's setup schedule and related injuries is well-documented here and elsewhere. Yet, for some reason, the rest of the world is still shocked by what they're seeing: Tom Brady having a career season, suddenly being talked about as a potential MVP candidate; Bill Belichick conceivably performing his best coaching of his career, perhaps of anyone's career; a defense on the brink of collapse whose front line appears possibly stronger than ever -- as though you'd be unable to drive a division of tanks through them.

So here we are, two games away from the playoffs. Two games away from another potential meeting with Destiny. Two games away from a run to cement this team's legacy as "THE DYNASTY".

Listen To What I Say

Anything can happen in the playoffs. Snow storms. Tuck rules. Opportune turnovers. Fortunate bounces. Close calls. You make your own luck, and luck in the NFL is spelled w-o-r-k.

No grand designs. No razzle-dazzle. No heroes.

"If you do what we've told you to do, you'll get what you deserve," Belichick told the 2004 Patriots before taking the field against Carolina in Super Bowl XXXIX. "Do your job, and you'll be champions."

Merry Christmas, my flock, and a potentially very happy New Year.

The Pulpit Has Been Crowned

In a modern union of majesty and the devine, New England Patriots Pulpit has been named Best of Patriots Blogs by Deadspin.com in Deadspin's Guide to the Web.

This is the Pulpit's first major award, and I'm extremely proud and flattered to be honored.

Thanks to Deadspin and a special thanks to all my loyal readers.

Oh, and GO PATRIOTS!

Pats 28, Bucs 0: Commentary and Analysis

Just in case the other 31 teams forgot, just a reminder: These are the two-time defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots.

Now, I don't believe, like the rest of the NFL-covering media, that this was a "statement" game. The Patriots don't like making statements. They don't want other teams knowing anything. They don't want you to know they're coming. They want you to think they're crippled, ready for the taking. They want to sneak up on you and hit you with a hammer.

I think Bill Belichick would have been just as pleased to beat Tampa Bay, 3-0.

If they were to send a message, it would be short and sweet, and in this case very much like Tom Brady said to open the pregame show to Super Bowl XXXIV: "We're Baaaaaaack."

For the rest of us, we forget about the statement and just talk about this one game, and what a game it was.

The offense that everyone has been complaining has been kicking too many field goals scored four touchdows against the 3rd best scoring defense in the league. They were four of five in the red zone, three of three from goal-to-go. The put up 336 yards and gave up no turnovers to the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL. Brady hit nine different receivers, including an offensive tackle coming out of the backfield, as three other receivers did. One actual wide receiver made a career high in yardage.

The one thing lacking on offense was a devastating running game, but Tampa had the fifth-ranked rushing defense. OK, so you can't have everything. Corey Dillon wasn't completely ineffective, either. He picked up nearly 50 yards on the ground, scored on a 3-yard run, and caught a short touchdown pass.

As exciting as it was to watch the offense, it was the defense that put on the real show.

The Patriots totalled the "Cadillac," and it looked like Phil Simms was quarterbacking. Phil Simms today, not Phil Simms from 20 years ago.

I don't want to hear anymore about how great Chris Simms has been improving. How he's so poised under pressure in the late game.

And Carnell "Cadillac" Williams can park his nickname in the garage until he earns it in the NFL. Hand over the keys, young man. And that's enough of these stupid college nicknames being used by the national media and field announcers.

Here's what I said before the game:

"I don't think Tampa will have success if they try to open the game by running against New England. Gruden has a couple very good receivers in Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard and Michael Clayton. Look for the Bucs to open up the passing to set up the running of Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

To stop this, the Patriots will need to pressure Simms all day. That will prevent (a) Sims from throwing deep against New England terrible secondary, and (b) clogging up Williams' running lanes."

So what does Tampa do? They try to run the ball. And when that doesn't work, they try to have Simms shoulder the load, where he was under pressure all day. Gruden! The Bucs won the only Super Bowl in the last four that the Patriots didn't, and you have to wonder how with a coach like Gruden. Does this guy even watch game film?

The New Four Horseman

Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork and Jarvis Green were simply outstanding Sunday. Really, if the Apocolypse comes, I wouldn't be surprised to see these four guys riding in front of it. They brought battle to the line of scrimmage, a pestilence of pressure to Simms, a famine of Buccaneer points, and an ultimate conquest of the Tampa offense.

Don't come to me and quote stats. I've told you before that this defense doesn't translate into stats for individuals. The Patriots had seven sacks, not one of them by a defensive lineman, and all four of them had just four tackles each. Those are Dwight Freeney or Jason Taylor stats. Freeney and Taylor only wished that days like these four had Sunday.

Seymour, Wilfork, Warren and Green utterly dominated -- I mean D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E-D -- the Bucs offensive line, allowing the linebackers and an occassional defensive back to wreak havoc in the Tampa Bay backfield. The push at the line was so great, I don't think the Tampa line won a single battle at scrimmage. As a result, Williams never had a gain greater than 3, and Simms looked like a man standing in front of a breaking dam.

The defensive backfield is still a major concern, but the danger is far less when the front seven, and especially that front four, play like they did Sunday. The defense probably also allowed a couple too many third-down conversions (7 of 16 for 44%), but that's a vast improvement over earlier games.

Any questions or comments about the game? Post a comment or email me.

The Final Two Regular Season Games

New England wraps up the season with a post-Christmas Monday Night game in New Jersey a week from tonight and then a visit from our good friends the Miami Dolphins who love coming to Gillette Stadium in winter. That game is set for New Year's Day.

People are already asking, "Should they sit Brady and Dillon and others to make sure they're healthy for the playoffs."

Answer: Hell, no!

You play them until the game is well in hand, or until the opposition shows a willingness to purposely cause injury -- which would be shocking -- and then you can sit them. There are lots of reason for this, but the main one is this: The pieces are just falling into place. You don't have it perfect yet. There are still some combinations to try. There is still a little bit to learn about this team.

Now, there is secondary concern, the matter of playoff seeding. If the Patriots win the final two and Cincinnati somehow loses the final two, they'll both end up 11-5. (Denver could lose both and end up 11-5 as well, but they beat New England head-to-head, so they win that tiebreaker.) I don't know what the other tiebreakers are or who leads them, but it's conceivable the Pats could advance to the No. 3 seed. Unfortunately, the Bengals have Buffalo at home Saturday, so that will probably render the point moot.

Yes, it's great to have the luxury of a bye week; and, yes, you could effectively force one on most of your players by sitting them either this week or next, but that is a distant consideration. Just about everyone except Brady has had time off this season anyway.

Last year, the starters played in the meaningless last game against San Francisco for more than three quarters, having played ineffectively until then. The Patriots just Sunday played their best game. If they can lead 21-0 at halftime over the Jets and Dolphins, then I have no problem sitting the starters for the second half. But you don't sit them the full game.

The Gillette Stadium Experience, Part II

My brother and I spend the whole game behind the West end zone (that's the end with the lighthouse). We were on the opposite side of the scoreboard from the lighthouse about even with the top of it. There are two smaller sections there, one closer to the scoreboard right behind the last row of seats, the other more in the corner behind a row of handicap seating which is perched a little higher above the last row of seating in front of that.

When there are no people in the handicap seating, this is a great place to stand. You can see everything but the very near corner of the field, and the regular seating was so far below that they could stand the whole game and not affect your vision of the field. If there are people in the handicap section, they really impair your view. It's hit or miss. We had a couple people there, but it was easy to move a step to the side and look around.

The crowd was great, too. One of the best I'd experienced at Gillette, from opening snap to the final gun, the crowd was really into it, made a lot of noise, and generally had a great time. I think it's the cold. You have to keep moving to stay warm, and that keeps people mobile and adrenaline pumping. My brother and I had a great time with the small group that congregated around us .

I didn't get to write about our experience at the New Orleans game, so here are a couple notes:

We spent the first half in the same location I just described, except in the area closer to the scoreboard. We never saw anything that happened inside the 20 or 25. We had to watch the scoreboard.

We walked to the other end of the stadium where the banners are hanging. There are lots of good places to stand there, if you get there early enough. Those would be especially good if there's precipitation. The West end zone would be a disaster.

Unfortunately, neither end zone area has easy access to rest rooms or concessions. You have to do a lot of walking, and there's a good chance you're going to miss some of the action.

Leave the Chili, Take the Fries

For the New Orleans game, I had a bowl of fries with chili and cheese. I think it was $5.75. It was a pretty big bowl and there were a lot of fries, and they were good and hot and crispy. The chili and cheese both got squeezed out of plastic bags. The cheese was the typical plasticized orangy substance that tastes very little like cheese that you get everywhere. The chili ... I don't know how to describe it. It was nearly offensive, very chemical-like. You couldn't get rid of the taste, and it stayed with you, if you follow me. I'd probably get the fries again, maybe with the cheese (because it's warm, at least). I'd give them an extra $1 to keep the chili.

Postgame, Week 15: Patriots 28, Tampa Bay 0

FOXBORO, Mass. - The New England Patriots marched the opening kickoff down the field, scored a touchdown, and secured the AFC East division title and a playoff spot. In probably the team's best overall performance of the season, the Patriots improved to 9-5, while nudging the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (also 9-5) off the top of the NFC South.

The Patriots played as near a flawless game as they have played all season, committing no turnovers, forcing one, limiting penalties, scoring four touchdowns, and not allowing Tampa Bay inside the Patriot 30 for the entire game.

"It's huge for us. We haven't really played a good game against a good opponent with a good record," tight end Christian Fauria said. "We needed to keep winning and trying to get better in December."

Quarterback Tom Brady led the way, throwing for 258 yards and three touchdowns on 20 of 31 passing. Brady hit nine different receivers, including offensive tackle Tom Ashworth, for one of the touchdowns. It was the first career reception for Ashworth, who lined up at fullback on the play.

Brady also hit running back Corey Dillon on a short touchdown pass, giving Brady touchdown passes to 12 different receivers this season, a franchise record.

New England wasted no time putting points on the board against the No. 3 scoring defense in the league. The Patriots really mixed it up, running out of the shotgun, passing to running backs, running and end around to receiver David Givens.

After throwing incomplete on first down, the next 11 plays gained positive yards. The big play was a 32-yard strike from Brady to Givens on the third play of the game, a third-and-7 from the Pats 27. New England capped the drive with Ashworth's touchdown.

The Patriots defense was impenetrable from the first series. Highly touted Tampa running back Carnell Williams had no where to run and was stuffed time and time again by the New England front seven. Williams finished with a meager 23 yards on 14 carries.

Defenses dominated the next 15 minutes, as neither team came close to paydirt, but then the Buccaneer defense made a fatal mistake.

After crossing midfield, the Patriots killed their own drive with a 5-yard loss on a pass to running back Kevin Faulk and a false-start penalty on Ashworth. Tampa Bay gave New England a breath on third-and-18 when Dewayne White was called offsides, giving 5 yards back. But the real mistake came two plays later on fourth-and-13.

Patriot punter Josh Miller booted a punt into the endzone, which would have given Tampa the ball on their own 20. But linebacker Ryan Nece blasted Miller and was flagged for roughing the kicker, giving New England a fresh set of downs at the Tampa 38.

Brady hit tight end Christian Fauria for 17 yards on a third-and-16, and two plays later hit Tim Dwight for 27 on second-and-16. Another Tampa defensive mistake, a personal foul facemask penalty on the play, put the ball on the 3 yard line. Dillon ran it in from there.

As if in a last gasp, Tampa Bay tried to mount a two-minute drive to get on the board by halftime. The New England defense would have none of it. With the Buccaneers moving following a 22-yard third-down pass, Patriot linebacker Mike Vrabel came on the blind side of Chris Simms and hammered the third-year quarterback, forcing a fumble recoved by linebacker Willie McGinest, who rumbled for 19 yards before trying to lateral the ball, only to be called for an illegal forward pass and a loss of five yards at the end of the play.

The Patriots capitalized, draining the game clock, and Brady hitting Givens for a 16-yard touchdown. The Pats held a 21-0 lead and a nearly 2-to-1 margin in time of possession at the half. Givens finished the game with 6 receptions and a career-high 137 yards. He also had 13 yards on two rushes.

After a scoreless third quarter, New England sealed the game on the 2-yard Brady to Dillon score on the Patriots first drive of the fourth quarter.

Dillon had just 48 yards on 19 carries, and New England had 85 yards on 32 carries as a team.

There were several defensive stars. McGinest continues to play at a high level, receiving credit for two sacks and the fumble recovery. He had 4 solo tackles and 2 assists.

Tedy Brushci had a phenomenal game, leading the team in tackles with 9 solo and 2 assists. He also had 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a pass defensed. Bruschi may have single-handedly stopped Tampa Bay's last best attempt to get back in the game.

The Buccaneers received the second-half opening kickoff. Bruschi was in on five of seven plays, including a sack that forced a fumble, which Tampa recovered, but it set the Bucs back 12 yards, and they ended up punting, and never gained momentum.

Rosevelt Colvin and Artrell Hawkins also had sacks of Simms, who finished 21 of 34 for just 155 yards.

Asante Samuel had 7 solo tackles, and Ellis Hobbs defensed 2 passes.

It was the Patriots first shutout in 36 games (Dec. 27, 2003, 31-0 vs. Buffalo), Eric Mangini's first as defensive coordinator. The Patriots had two other shutouts earlier in 2003, both 12-0 scores over Dallas (Nov. 16) and Miami (Nov. 30).

By the way, the official temperature at kickoff, according to the NFL gamebook, was 38 degrees.

New England travels to the Meadowlands to face the New York Jets next Monday, the night after Christmas. Gane time is 9 p.m. Tampa Bay hosts Alanta at 1 p.m. Saturday (Christmas Eve) in a battle for the top of the NFC South that will probably eliminate one of those teams from the playoffs.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers open thread

I'm heading to Foxboro to watch the Patriots claim their third straight AFC East crown.

This is your turn to carry the board. Talk it up during the game. Let me know what you think of key plays.

I'll wrap it up tonight while we're all watching Denver kick the heck out of Buffalo.

Let's hear it out there!

GO PATRIOTS!

Week 15 Picks

Comcast really hosed me this week. It's a long story, but they cost me hours and hours of work and time and nearly ruined my business. Unfortunately, I lost tons of writing time and was virtually incapable of posting. Thus, I apoligize for the sparse literature this week, including a lack of last week's postgame, analysis, and weekly picks review.

Here are my week 15 picks:

Saturday, Dec. 17
Tampa Bay (9-4) at New England (8-5), 1:30 p.m.
Prediction: Patriots, 16-10.

Kansas City (8-5) at N.Y. Giants (9-4), 5 p.m.
Prediction: Giants, 30-24.

Denver (10-3) at Buffalo (4-9), 8:30 p.m.
Prediction: Broncos, 38-10.

Sunday, Dec. 18
Arizona (4-9) at Houston (1-12), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Cardinals, 17-12.

Carolina (9-4) at New Orleans (3-10) in Baton Rouge, LA, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Panthers, 27-7.

N.Y. Jets (3-10) at Miami (6-7), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Dolphins, 35-13.

Philadelphia (5-8) at St. Louis (5-8), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Rams, 23-17.

Pittsburgh (8-5) at Minnesota (8-5), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Steelers, 26-21.

San Diego (8-5) at Indianapolis (13-0), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Colts, 31-27.

Seattle (11-2) at Tennessee (4-9), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Seahawks, 31-13.

San Francisco (2-11) at Jacksonville (9-4), 1 p.m.
Prediction: Jaguars, 27-9.

Cincinnati (10-3) at Detroit (4-9), 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Bengals, 24-10.

Cleveland (4-9) at Oakland, (4-9) 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Raiders, 17-16.

Dallas (8-5) at Washington (7-6), 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Redskins, 24-23.

Atlanta (8-5) at Chicago (9-4), 8:30 p.m.
Prediction: Bears, 13-10.


Monday, Dec. 19
Green Bay (3-10) at Baltimore (4-9), 9 p.m.
Prediction: Packers, 14-13.

Game Preview: Week 15, Patriots vs. Tampa Bay

If you like statistics -- meaningless ones, Bill Belichick would say -- you're going to love today's matchup between the New England Patriots (8-5) and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4).

Let's start with the weather. It used to be one of the most famous statistics in NFL lore. The Bucs were an awful cold-weather team, 0-19 when the temperature was 41 degrees or lower. Tampa Bay was the antithesis of the other NFL bay: Green Bay, who for many years was unbeatable in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

The Bucs are still pretty pathetic in the cold: 2-21 with a temperature below 40. The Patriots are the new Packers: 15 straight wins when the temperature at kickoff is 35 degrees or less, and quarterback Tom Brady is 19-0 as a starter when the temperature is below 40.

"That ought to be an afterthought," Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden said. "We're 9-4 playing the defending two-time world champions. You ought to play naked if you have to."

That may be the most intelligent thing I've ever heard Gruden quoted as saying. With any luck, however, his hypothesis won't necessitate proof.

The National Weather Service says the temperature at kickoff this afternoon will be 41 degrees with a wind chill factor of 34 degrees, a 10 mph westerly breeze. The wind may die down a bit, but otherwise conditions are expected to stay consistent during the game.

More stats: Tampa is 0-5 against its last five AFC opponents. New England is 18-4 versus the NFC, including Super Bowls, since 2001. The Patriots lead the all-time series 3-2. These teams last met on Sept. 3, 2000, at the old Foxboro Stadium, a day forever remembered as Belichick's regular-season debut with New England. The Bucs sacked Drew Bledsoe six times, and Mike Alstott ran for a pair of touchdowns. Final: Tampa Bay, 21-16.

However, Tom Brady has never played against Tampa, and he's 24-6 when starting against a team for the first time. Tampa Bay quarterback Chris Simms has never faced a Belichick-coached team. Belichick has an incredible record against young quarterbacks in first meetings. (Belichick also has some ungodly record against quarterbacks he faces a second time in a single season, but that doesn't apply here.)

You want more stats? We got 'em. Here's a weird one: Tampa Bay lost its first 10 games against defending Super Bowl champions, but have won the last three.

Several Patriots are working toward personal bests. Brady needs 135 passing yards to surpass his career high of 3,764 (2002). Deion Branch already has a career-high 883 receiving yards; 117 more will make him the first Patriot with 1,000 yards since Troy Brown did it in 2001.

Patriots are 4-2 at home this season. Bucs are 5-2 on the road.

Tampa is 16th in running offense; New England is 11th against (Seven games ago, on Oct. 30 against Buffalo, the Patriots were ranked 25th against the run. Someone still want to dispute the impact the return of Richard Seymour and others has made for New England's run defense?)

For all everyone keeps making of Chris Simms, Tampa is 25th in the league passing. Unfortunately, the Patriots pass defense is 31st. That leaves Tampa Bay with the 24th overall offense, while the Pats D ranks 29th.

On the other side, New England is 22nd rushing against Tampa Bay's 5th-ranked rushing defense. But the Pats are second passing, while the Tampa D ranks 4th against the pass. Overall, the Patriot offense is ranked 5th against the 2nd-ranked Buc defense.

I don't think Tampa will have success if they try to open the game by running against New England. Gruden has a couple very good receivers in Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard and Michael Clayton. Look for the Bucs to open up the passing to set up the running of Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

To stop this, the Patriots will need to pressure Sims all day. That will prevent (a) Sims from throwing deep against New England terrible secondary, and (b) clogging up Williams' running lanes.

The Patriots defense has to force more turnovers. Tampa's defense is great in that category. Let's hope New England can make some progress in that area. The Pats also require dramatic improvement in kick coverage.

Here's what it comes down to: The Patriots offense needs to find a way to move the ball and, not just score points, but score touchdowns, against the 3rd most stingy defense in points allowed in the league.

I'd like to see New England come out and run the 2-minute drill with a 5-wide set right from the start. Lots of 4- to 5-yard passes. After a couple first downs, then hand the ball off to Corey Dillon, or whoever's available.

No one knows the true extent of Brady's shin injury. I do not think it's serious, and I'm certain it won't impact him or the game that much. The Patriots need to win a game, or Miami needs to lose one, over the next three games for New England to clinch the AFC East division title. All that said, if Brady is OK, New England will try to wrap things up this weekend, which will allow them to "coast" the last two weeks of the season against the New York Jets and Miami.

If not, expect the Patriots to play it safe with a few of the starters so they can load up next week against the Jets or New Years Day against the Dolphins.

The head referee for today's game is Scott Green. This is Green's first full year leading a crew. He was formerly a back judge on Johnny Grier's crew. Green took over for Grier last year when Grier was injured during a game. Most of that squad remains intact, so expect a pretty decent job.

Prediction: Patriots, 16-10.

The game will be broadcast on Fox 25 at 1:30 p.m. Ex-voice of the Red Sox, Dick Stockton, is your play-by-play announcer, and Daryl Johnston is the analyst. You'll have to draw your own conclusions. I'll say it anyway: As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.

Patriots @ Bills open thread

It's not going to be easy up there in the Great White North (well, almost).

I think the Pats need to establish a run, control the clock, and pick their spots throwing.

The also have to stop the run, and prevent Buffalo from a quick start like they had in Miami.

Post your comments as we go along.

Here we go ... GO PATS!

Week 14 Picks

Comcast really screwed me over this week. Well, been far longer than a week, but it came to a head a this week, and it's really set me back on the blog. Maybe I'll write fully about it someday.

For now, here are the Week 14 picks.

Sunday, Dec. 11
Chicago at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Pittsburgh, 20-17.

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Cincinnati, 34-10.

Houston at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Tennessee, 17-3.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Indianapolis, 24-21.

New England at Buffalo, 1 p.m.
Prediction: New England, 27-17.

Oakland at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Oakland, 31-13.

St. Louis at Minnesota, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Minnesota, 24-17

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1 p.m.
Prediction: Carolina, 20-17.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Giants, 26-9.

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Seahawks, 33-10.

Washington at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.
Prediction: Redskins, 17-14.

Baltimore at Denver, 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Denver, 30-6.

Kansas City at Dallas, 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Tough one. I'll give Dallas home-field advantage. 29-26.

Miami at San Diego, 4:15 p.m.
Prediction: Chargers, 23-16.

Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 p.m.
Prediction: Packers, 15-12.

Monday, Dec. 12
New Orleans at Atlanta, 9 p.m.
Prediction: Falcons, 27-9.

Game Preview: Week 14, Patriots @ Buffalo

If the New England Patriots (7-5) beat the 4-8 Buffalo Bills and 5-7 Miami loses to 8-4 San Diego, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions will have wrapped up the AFC East Division and guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs.

New England has won three of four, after alternating wins and losses for the first half of the season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is on a five of six slide, that includes the Bills loss in Foxboro, 21-16, after leading that game most of the way.

There have been more indications these teams are heading in opposite directions, and the news is generally good for New England.

The Patriots are coming off a 16-3 win over the New York Jets. While the final score belies the flow of the game, the Patriots have been able to put away poor teams in the last few years as they were unable to do last Sunday. Still, it was an overall dominating performance, one of the best this season.

Buffalo is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 loss at Miami after taking a 21-0 first quarter lead. They allowed a field goal in the second, scored a safety in the third, and then gave up 21 in the fourth. The defense collapsed, the offense was inept, and the team fell into turmoil.

The Patriots have kept the injury report well-stocked, but it's fairly obvious that the injuries are not all in one major unit, and the injuries are far less serious than they were earlier in the season. Every week, some players go on, some come off, but more play ever week.

And, they're playing better. The defensive line has been playing at increasing levels, approaching performances of last season. The linebackers, as a unit, are starting to revert to form, and even the defensive backfield has shown some improvement. Now, don't get too excited, the defensive backfield will not be as good as last year, even in the playoffs, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Back to today's game.

The offense should be playing better as Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk continue to work their way back. Patrick Pass and Heath Evans have been downgraded from questionable to out for today's game. The receivers are recovering as well, and the tight ends are coming into their own, though Daniel Graham will be out today. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and the Pats are going to need to fill a big hole as Nick Kaczur has been downgraded to out. Hard to believe that that's good news, but there it is.

The Bills, while not suffering any major injuries, have lost one of their biggest weapons for Sunday's game. Wide receiver Eric Moulds was suspended without pay by the Bills for conduct detrimental to the team. Head coach Mike Mularkey confirmed that wide receiver Sam Aiken will start in place of 10-year veteran Moulds.

“I’m not going to elaborate on the reasons why," Mularkey said. "I know it’s an interest to the fans but on behalf of Eric and our team I don’t think it benefits anybody to talk about this thing anymore.”

Buffalo's starting running back Willis McGahee also missed practice with an undisclosed illness, but is expected to play.

A lot has been made of New England's inability to score in the red zone. That has actually improved over the last few games. But Buffalo has had even more frustration.

The Bills have scored touchdowns in just 12 of their 32 red zone trips (37.5%) this season. But over their last four games, Buffalo has managed just two touchdowns and two field goals -- to go with three turnovers -- in 10 red zone efforts.

The Patriots have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams, the only loss being the 31-0 in Buffalo debacle to start the 2003 season five days after the Patriots released Lawyer Milloy and Buffalo signed him. Still, upstate New York, like all foreign territory in the AFC East, has posed its challenges to New England. Despite the last few "dynasty" years of routs, the games there are usually very close (12-9 in 2001, 13-10 in 2000, 17-7 loss in 1999, 13-10 loss in 1998).

Also, Buffalo has won four consecutive home games against division opponents, its longest streak since winning 17 in a row from 1988-1992. None of those four were against New England. At this point, Buffalo, which is just barely hanging on to a mathematical possibility of a playoff spot, is looking to next year and finds its best role to be that of spoiler -- specifically for New England.

The Patriots are 3-3 on the road, while the Bills are 4-2 at home.

Both teams have horribly ranked defenses. The Bills, whose defense has been highly ranked the last few years, is dismal: 31st against the run, allowing 140.3 yards per game. They're better against the pass, ranked 12th, allowing just 191.8 ypg. That leaves them 26th overall.

New England is just about the opposite, ranked 31st against the pass (255.4 ypg), and 17th against the run (112.3 ypg), making them 29th overall.

Fortunately, the offensive numbers are more disparate. The Patriots are 3rd passing with 263.2 ypg -- Tom Brady leads all quarterbacks with 3,301 yards -- but just 88.7 ypg (27th) rushing. That latter number should pick up if Dillon remains healthy. The Patriots schedule was loaded with run stoppers early in the season, but far less so in these last few games. Overall, New England is eighth.

The Bills are 18th rushing, (107.7 ypg) and 29th passing (140.8 ypg). They're 29th overall. Bad for them. Good for New England.

The weather calls for temps around 30 and snow showers and a brisk 16 mph wind, wind chills around 20. Passing may be difficult, despite Brady's rifle arm. The Patriots are going to want to take their revamped running game and Buffalo's front seven. Brady has shown a propensity to play well in Buffalo with the wind at his back, so which team has the wind when could be important.

Buffalo's best chance is going to be home-field advantage and turnovers. It's a mystery how second-year quarterback J.P. Losman plays in the Buffalo winds. The Bills third best bet might be biding their time until they have the wind and hoping Losman can take advantage of the endlessly depleted New England secondary.

The Patriots have been ridiculously on the short side of the turnover battle all season. There has been the slightest improvement over the last few games, but that improvement has to increase dramatically if this team is to go anywhere past the end of the regular season. Today would be a good time to show some improvement.

That goes for putting the ball actually in the end zone. New England has been futilely Drew Bledsoe-like all season, driving from 20 to 20 and settling for field goal after field goal. Fortunately, the defense has been holding up its end (except for the turnovers), and now the offense has to show that it's playoff ready.

Prediction: Patriots, 27-17.

Kevin Harlan has your play-by-play on CBS (Channel 4 locally) and Randy Cross is your analyst. There is no scheduled sideline reporter. As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and the Patriots No. 2 all-time leading scorer Gino Cappelletti.

Bill Carollo's crew officiates today's game. This is the crew that allowed the 52-second discrepancy in the fourth quarter of the Patriots-Steelers game in Week 3. New England eventually won that game in the closing seconds on an Adam Vinatieri field goal. The discrepancy had no real effect on the game, but everyone made a big deal about it. Expect Randy Cross to bring it up at least once.