Game Preview: Week 15, Patriots vs. Tampa Bay

If you like statistics -- meaningless ones, Bill Belichick would say -- you're going to love today's matchup between the New England Patriots (8-5) and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4).

Let's start with the weather. It used to be one of the most famous statistics in NFL lore. The Bucs were an awful cold-weather team, 0-19 when the temperature was 41 degrees or lower. Tampa Bay was the antithesis of the other NFL bay: Green Bay, who for many years was unbeatable in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

The Bucs are still pretty pathetic in the cold: 2-21 with a temperature below 40. The Patriots are the new Packers: 15 straight wins when the temperature at kickoff is 35 degrees or less, and quarterback Tom Brady is 19-0 as a starter when the temperature is below 40.

"That ought to be an afterthought," Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden said. "We're 9-4 playing the defending two-time world champions. You ought to play naked if you have to."

That may be the most intelligent thing I've ever heard Gruden quoted as saying. With any luck, however, his hypothesis won't necessitate proof.

The National Weather Service says the temperature at kickoff this afternoon will be 41 degrees with a wind chill factor of 34 degrees, a 10 mph westerly breeze. The wind may die down a bit, but otherwise conditions are expected to stay consistent during the game.

More stats: Tampa is 0-5 against its last five AFC opponents. New England is 18-4 versus the NFC, including Super Bowls, since 2001. The Patriots lead the all-time series 3-2. These teams last met on Sept. 3, 2000, at the old Foxboro Stadium, a day forever remembered as Belichick's regular-season debut with New England. The Bucs sacked Drew Bledsoe six times, and Mike Alstott ran for a pair of touchdowns. Final: Tampa Bay, 21-16.

However, Tom Brady has never played against Tampa, and he's 24-6 when starting against a team for the first time. Tampa Bay quarterback Chris Simms has never faced a Belichick-coached team. Belichick has an incredible record against young quarterbacks in first meetings. (Belichick also has some ungodly record against quarterbacks he faces a second time in a single season, but that doesn't apply here.)

You want more stats? We got 'em. Here's a weird one: Tampa Bay lost its first 10 games against defending Super Bowl champions, but have won the last three.

Several Patriots are working toward personal bests. Brady needs 135 passing yards to surpass his career high of 3,764 (2002). Deion Branch already has a career-high 883 receiving yards; 117 more will make him the first Patriot with 1,000 yards since Troy Brown did it in 2001.

Patriots are 4-2 at home this season. Bucs are 5-2 on the road.

Tampa is 16th in running offense; New England is 11th against (Seven games ago, on Oct. 30 against Buffalo, the Patriots were ranked 25th against the run. Someone still want to dispute the impact the return of Richard Seymour and others has made for New England's run defense?)

For all everyone keeps making of Chris Simms, Tampa is 25th in the league passing. Unfortunately, the Patriots pass defense is 31st. That leaves Tampa Bay with the 24th overall offense, while the Pats D ranks 29th.

On the other side, New England is 22nd rushing against Tampa Bay's 5th-ranked rushing defense. But the Pats are second passing, while the Tampa D ranks 4th against the pass. Overall, the Patriot offense is ranked 5th against the 2nd-ranked Buc defense.

I don't think Tampa will have success if they try to open the game by running against New England. Gruden has a couple very good receivers in Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard and Michael Clayton. Look for the Bucs to open up the passing to set up the running of Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

To stop this, the Patriots will need to pressure Sims all day. That will prevent (a) Sims from throwing deep against New England terrible secondary, and (b) clogging up Williams' running lanes.

The Patriots defense has to force more turnovers. Tampa's defense is great in that category. Let's hope New England can make some progress in that area. The Pats also require dramatic improvement in kick coverage.

Here's what it comes down to: The Patriots offense needs to find a way to move the ball and, not just score points, but score touchdowns, against the 3rd most stingy defense in points allowed in the league.

I'd like to see New England come out and run the 2-minute drill with a 5-wide set right from the start. Lots of 4- to 5-yard passes. After a couple first downs, then hand the ball off to Corey Dillon, or whoever's available.

No one knows the true extent of Brady's shin injury. I do not think it's serious, and I'm certain it won't impact him or the game that much. The Patriots need to win a game, or Miami needs to lose one, over the next three games for New England to clinch the AFC East division title. All that said, if Brady is OK, New England will try to wrap things up this weekend, which will allow them to "coast" the last two weeks of the season against the New York Jets and Miami.

If not, expect the Patriots to play it safe with a few of the starters so they can load up next week against the Jets or New Years Day against the Dolphins.

The head referee for today's game is Scott Green. This is Green's first full year leading a crew. He was formerly a back judge on Johnny Grier's crew. Green took over for Grier last year when Grier was injured during a game. Most of that squad remains intact, so expect a pretty decent job.

Prediction: Patriots, 16-10.

The game will be broadcast on Fox 25 at 1:30 p.m. Ex-voice of the Red Sox, Dick Stockton, is your play-by-play announcer, and Daryl Johnston is the analyst. You'll have to draw your own conclusions. I'll say it anyway: As usual, you can catch a better audio description of the game on WBCN 104.1 FM with Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.